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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 26 October 2013

Tricky day, play it safe

Altho’ there was no selection yesterday, the alert list came good with a couple of short-priced winners. While I’m not a great believer in following short-priced runners, a successful £10 double on a couple of horses at “evens” returns the equivalent of a 3/1 winner. So, with the horse alerts flying in as regular winners, albeit at short prices, it may be worth combining them in doubles and trebles to small stakes.

So, straight off with the horse alert runners:-
Aintree:
1:55 – IFANDBUTWHYNOT
3:05 – VIVA COLONIA
3:40 – KRUZHLINIIN, SAVED BY JOHN
4:50 – YESYOUCAN

Chepstow
3:00 – SKI SUNDAY
4:10 – NOTUS DE LA TOUR
4:45 – MAJALA, SIRE DE GRUGY and THEATRICAL STAR

Stratford
3:20 – AL ALFA

Aintree, my “hometown” track (I was brought-up in Maghull just 3-miles north of the course) has a tricky card on paper. Possibly the strongest wager from my alert list is in the opening race with IFANDBUTWHYNOT. Firstly, the fav Karinga Bay is rated on the vastly improved form he showed over 2m4f when he last raced. IFANDBUTWHYNOT is a 2-mile specialist who went to the Festival as favourite for the County Hurdle where he raced respectably. Dropped 2lb for this, I think he has an excellent chance and I was expecting him to be 2/1.
Having Karinga Bay in the race means the odds for IFANDBUTWHYNOT are a generous 7/2.

The veterans chase looks very tricky and I’m not tempted by it.

The Old Roan Chase (a pub I used to drink in) is interesting. I reckon Walkon is overated at OR151, and that make this a wagering race. Last year, For Non Stop ran away with the race, but I can’t see anything similar in the race this year. My horse alert runner VIVA COLONIA is better than OR139 but I fear he’ll be outclassed in this. The horse that takes my eye is WISHFUL THINKING and, since I started writing this, his odds have shortened from 13/2 to 11/2. He will not run a poor race and will be on the premises at the finish.  There are a some potential rivals to him, mainly Astracad who will come good on one day this season, but on which day?  If he could be guaranteed to run to his best, my money would be on Astracad, but he’s too indifferent, hence being available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes as I write.

The 3:40 could be another wagering race as SAVED BY JOHN, currently 9/2 with Corals (BOG), will appreciate the trip and ground whereas Kruzhlinin would appreciate softer ground. This horse is another with a big future this season.  

At Chepstow, SKI SUNDAY looks like he’s found his winning opportunity. His jumping is getting better and his rating is well below his hurdle rating. This trip could suit him a lot better than his rivals, but his odds leave no room for error at just 7/2. Watch out for the ground at Chepstow as it’s heavy in places. Similar odds are available about MAJALA, bit we know this ground will be in his favour over this trip and he’s unexposed with some potential to improve. I like MAJALA, and I think he’s going to do well this season, especially when the ground is testing.

The day’s racing is very tricky and nothing stands-out as huge value as it did last week. So, I’d suggest smaller stakes and spread the load.

Selections
Aintree 1:55 IFANDBUTWHYNOT, £10 win @ 7/2 with Bet Victor or Paddy Power, both go BOG
Aintree 3:40 SAVED BY JOHN, £10 win @ 9/2 with Corals BOG (generally 4/1 elasewhere)
Chepstow 4:45 MAJALA, £10 win @ 100/30 with Paddy Power, BOG (generally 3/1 elsewhere)

Total = £30 staked

1 comment:

  1. You wont be able to go to the Old Roan Pub now as it's closed down.

    ReplyDelete