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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Paul Nicholls to have a grand day

There was no selection for the blog yesterday, altho’ I was right in my narrative about horse alert runner AL ALFA who stayed-on to be 4th. It was disappointing to see Wonderful Charm being beaten, but Oscar Whisky could turn out to be a very good novice chaser. I’m not sure when the last 9yo novice chaser won at the Cheltenham Festival, but he may be interesting in some of the handicaps next spring.

We have a lot of racing on Saturday with meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster, and Lingfield. The hunt is on for a winner and there are quite a few alert runners
Cheltenham 12:40 – LE BEC
Cheltenham 1:15 – DRUMSHAMBO, GREYWELL BOY, PARSNIP PETE, SAVED BY JOHN
Cheltenham 2:25 – CANTLOW, COLOUR SQUADRON, GRANDIOSO, JOHNS SPIRIT, SILVER ROQUE, TAP NIGHT,
Cheltenham 3:35 – MORE OF THAT, SALUBRIOUS,
Doncaster 2:40 – HAZY TOM
Doncaster 3:15 – LOST GLORY, NIGHT IN MILAN
Lingfield 1:55 – BLACK THUNDER
Lingfield 2:30 – DOLATULO, HI NOTE

Cheltenham starts off with a 4yo hurdle, and then a disappointing 4-runner novice chase including LE BEC. I’m not sure this horse really acts at this extended 3-mile trip as he looked lucky to hold on to the lead LTO over C&D. The 2-mile handicap chase at 1:15 looks an absolute cracker of a race and is too competitive to call.

The feature race, the 2m5f chase handicap at 2:25 looks potentially quite weak in depth. Those at the head of the market: Johns Spirit (9/2) and Colour Squadron (9/2), deserve to be their but, behind them only Grandioso (6/1) and Cantlow (9/1) look worthy challengers. I can see Johns Spirit being rated over OR150 before the end of this season so, off OR148 he looks close to his ceiling. Still a maiden over fences, Colour Squadron is poor value for a race like this at 9/2 and should be trading at longer odds. Grandioso is the most interesting as he ran like he needed a run LTO yet still produced a performance of equal to his efforts last season. He could improve a whole lot in this race and it is not difficult to see him running 10lb better than LTO when 3rd to Cantlow. GRANDIOSO meets Cantlow on 4lb better terms today and that AP McCoy has swapped Cantlow for Colour Squadron is telling. For me, current odds of 8/1 about GRANDIOSO look the best value in the race.
GRANDIOSO is my only selection today.

Selection:

Cheltenham 2:40 GRANDIOSO, £10 win @ 8/1 – choose a BOG bookie such as Bet365, BetVictor or Paddy Power.

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