Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Thursday, 16 October 2014
Fortune favours the brave
Oyster Shell looked like winning his race until he hit the 3rd-last fence hard when under pressure, losing vital momentum. He'd been given a confident ride by 3lb claimer Jake Greenall up until that point, and he looked to me to be the best horse in the race by a long way. As such I'm sure that todays loss will only be money "lent" to the bookies. I've rated this race through the 3rd-placed horse
Toledo Gold, and I reckon Oyster Shell ran about 8lb below his best of last season.
My other selection, Alderbrook Lad, was beaten fair & square,
That races winner was Foundation Man, and this half-brother to "Arkle" Captain Chris seems to have put last seasons jumping issues behind him and he finally looks like becoming the horse he promised to be. He may be raised about 7lb from his current rating of OR127 for the win, but he may end up rated 145+ before the season is out.
There are a couple of jumps meetings today at Uttoxeter and Wincanton. There appears nothing of interest at Uttoxeter, but Wincanton looks better, especially the class 3 chase at 3:50. This 2m4f & 110 yard handicap has a couple of alert horses in it: AL ALFA and GREYWELL BOY. Of the pair, my ratings suggest GREYWELL BOY has the better chance. He started last season rated OR127, and today he's rated lower at OR124 despite having a good season in which he ran consistently including winning at Sandown in March off OR122. He started last season with a good run, and showed this trip is within his scope when 2nd at Warwick in February - he had some decent horses behnd him that day and the form was probably stronger than it appeared at the time as he won NTO at Sandown. Current odds are 14/1 which seem generous as he could well be on the scene at the finish. The pace should be good throughout, which will put jumping ability to the fore, and GREYWELL BOY does jump well. I'm on eachway as with 5 horses priced at odds between 9/2 - 6/1 there is nothing outstanding at the weights and, as he's capable of 130+, GREYWELL BOY has the potential to run much better than his mark.
Wincanton 3:50 GREYWELL BOY, £5 eachway @ 14/1 (available with Bet365, Bet Victor, Stan James & William Hill, all go B.O.G.)
Following the form with horseracing is a time-consuming task. It's one that can't be done half-hearted and, if you don't consider every horse in the race in question, you can be sure it's a horse you haven't considered that comes out and wins. Sometimes, due to time contraints, I can't give a form selection. This is the primary factor that drives me to use an "alert list" for the majority of my personal wagers and those advised on this blog.
When considering how you are going to follow the jumps season, some of you may want to be attached to a professional service. There are 3 services that I have been aware of (and used myself from time-to-time) since the jumps season of 2009-10 when I started using twitter and commenced blogging. They are:-
Formbet is run by Dave McAuley. Dave produces a daily set of ratings based on his own unique set of criteria that seems to take just about every variable into account, and then some more! If the colour of a jockeys underpants has an effect on the result, you can be sure Dave has the stats to back it up. What is good about Dave's ratings is that you can buy them for just the day, so you are not tied-in to a long subscription.
Narrowing-the-Field (or NTF, for short) is run by Ben Aitken. Ben is a trends-spotter (not a train-spotter, a trends-spotter). Essentially, Ben researches what links race winners and what they have in common. This is a service for someone who does not want to have a wager in many races on a particular day, but looks at racing in the way (perhaps) Sherlock Holmes would. Access to Ben's service is by the season, and he's currently looking for members (an a discount is available at the time of writing) but, once his ranks are full the doors are closed till the following season. Even if you don't subscribe, NTF provides a wealth of free information throughout the year.
Racing Bulletin is run by Richard Stoddart. This is also a ratings service, but is simpler in format than that of Formbet, but is just as effective. Alongside the ratings, there is also a resident tipster (Matt Johnson) who provides a small number of select wagering opportunities. Racing Bulletin offer a 14-day free trial if you follow the link on this blog page. Should you take-up a subscription to the service (via the link on this blog) then I will recieve a small commission.
All the best from Wayward Lad