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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 31 October 2014
The weekend starts here
A quick apology for the lack of a blog last Saturday. Unfortnately, the internet access at home was diabolical on Saturday (thank you Talktalk) and it was near impossible to undertake any form study on the morning. I'm taking a look at the weekends racing a day early (today) and will have a draft blog written before the end of this afternoon.
So far, it has been a very disappointing start to my jump campaign on the betting front. A large part of the reason for the poor start is that my job has become a lot more busier than it used to be. I'm going to have a think over the next couple of weeks as to whether providing selections this season is a viable exercise given that my time for form-study is restricted. I've also committed myself to producing a "companion" blogsite focussing on the Cheltenham Festival and it may be prudent to relax my committment to Wayward Lad to a weekend newsletter.
Onto today's racing and the exciting meeting at Wetherby.
The feature race there is the Listed handicap chase over 2m4f & 110 yards, and the fav is Silver Roque. I'll admit that this horse is on my alert list with an instruction to wager on him first-time-out - which is today. This horse is very good when fresh, but he comes here today on OR142 which is 10lbs more than the OR132 he won off on his seasonal debut in November 2013. Also, his record on good ground isn't too hot and he's far better with a bit of "give" in the ground. As such, I think he's opposable. The obvious one to take him on with is 2nd-fav Trustan Times, but he's more of a 3-mile chaser as was shown when 3rd in the Scottish National when last seen. Off The Ground looks to be harshly treated on OR143 based on his last few runs and he has something to prove today. But, a return to the form of his wins at Doncaster in Nov/Dec last year will see him go well today. Doeslessthanme will find this trip stretching him and he's a good horse over 2-mile. Much the same can be said of Mwaleshi, but this unexposed 9yo who will be having only his 5th chase run could spring a surprise. Last season Viva Colonia started off on my alert list but, after a promising start to the season, he didn't progress. Even so, he ran to a consistent level being rated OR144 after running 2nd over 2m4f on soft in January. He was outclassed last weekend and the handicapper has given him a chance today with OR138. The ground is no problem and odds of 16/1 look mighty interesting. Shadows Lengthen won a couple in the Spring, including over 2m4f at Haydock on good ground in March off OR129. On reflection, his OR131 rating today looks very fair, as he has had a spin over hurdles to bring him to fitness, so he can;t be discounted either. I was intending on making my selection Cedre Bleu but now I've written this race review I'm not so sure. No doubt about it, Cedre Bleu is a horse with plenty of ability but with a reticense to show it. He's been called a few names by not winning races he should've, but a change of trainer - he has his first run for Charlie Mann today - could be the making of him. The odds are not generous tho, as he's best-priced at 6/1 with Bet365. Brian Ellison has a good record here at Wetherby and that combined with his consistency last season (despite not winning) and that he had a run last week points me in the direction of VIVA COLONIA at 16/1.
Wetherby 2:15 VIVA COLONIA, £5 eachway @ 16/1 (Stan James, Bet365, Bet Victor - all go BOG and a 5th the odds a place 1,2,3)