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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 20 October 2014
Review of the weekends Jump Racing
The main focus of my attantion was the 2m4f handicap chase at Chelenham which was won for the 2nd-year in succession by JOHNS SPIRIT. As I wrote in the blog, his performance when 4th at the Cheltenham Festival in the Byrne Group Plate showed he was capable of winning off OR147. As such, he made my shortlist of 4 horses who were potential winners of the race, and the reasons why I overlooked were (1) he was 22lb worse-off with the consistent ASTRACAD from that win 12-months ago, and (2) as such, he needed a career-best run to win.
Sure enough, Astracad ran his usual consistent race and came home 4th; but JOHNS SPIRIT won in convincing style beating off the sustained challenge of Persian Snow. Long-term readers of the blog will know about Persian Snow, as he was one of my Cheltenham Festival selections when he ran a promising 6th in the Rewards4Racing Novices handicap Chase. The form of Saturdays race looks rock-solid and I'd be keen to follow both JOHNS SPIRIT and PERSIAN SNOW when they run next-time-out.
What is more galling about the race result is that the only horse in the race on my alert list was the winner and I chose to overlook him.
I'd also be keen on the 3rd-placed ERICHT next-time-out as this was only his 6th chase race, and it was easily the best chase performance he's put up to date. It should be remembered that he was 5th in the Coral Cup handicap hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Given he was beaten 7-lengths on Saturday it's unlikely the handicapper will be hard on him for this.
Another worth keeping an eye out for NTO is CHAMPION COURT. He always needs his seasonal debut and should improve 10lb+ for this race. He ran 7th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last year off OR157 and then went on to contest the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon where he was just touched-off by Riverside Theatre in what was his best performance last season. I'd like to see him return to Cheltenham for another go at the Paddy Power, and this year it wont be his seasonal debut.
My other selection on Saturday was Mon Parrain in the 3m1f Class 2 handicap Chase. The less said about this performance, the better. I had hoped that trainer Paul Nicholls had got this horses head straight after he won at Cheltenham in April; but no. Saying that, even if he'd run 5lb better than he did in April, he still wouldn't have won this race and may not have been in the 1st-4. This was a tremendous performance by ROALCO DE FARGES, who has now won 3 of his last 6 completed chases. It should be remembered that he ran 2nd to Tidal Bay in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in 2012 after which he wasn't seen again until February this year. He's won on both his visits to Newbury over the fences there, and if he goes for the Hennessey Gold Cup next he'll surely be one of the market leaders. It's unlikely the handicapper will raise him more than 10lb for this win. When I wrote Saturdays blog I highlighted my opinion that I thought STANDING OVATION was well handicapped, and so it proved as he ran a great race to be 2nd, but he had no chance with the winner. Had I known LE BEC would be a non-runner, then I'd have made STANDING OVATION my selection, but it would have been "win" only. STANDING OVATION may find himself vulnerable if raised more than 5lb for this. In 3rd was ALFIE SPINNER, and his horse hasn't won since December 2011, nearly 4 years ago! He was a very good novice chaser, but he's never quite returned to that form since. However, he is another who finds improvement for a run, and I'll be interested in where he goes next after this.
My old friend FOXCUB made an error early-on in the handicap hurdle at Cheltenham, and yet still ran a respectable 5th and so he looks primed for a good run NTO.
At Kelso, the 3m2f Class 3 handicap chase went to the horses who were race-fit from a recent run: Carlito Brigante and Gleann Na Ndochais. Given the fallers early-on in the race, I thought that FILL THE POWER had the rade gifted to him, but he ran like he needed it runing-out of puff about 6-furlongs out. He'll strip a lot fitter NTO when I'll be expecting to recoup losses.
I was beating myself up yesterday for missing out on JOHNS SPIRIT, and maybe I was trying too hard to find a winner at odds longer than 8/1. A £20 win wager on JOHNS SPIRIT would have recouped the losses so far this jumps season, and this was a lost opportunity. Similarly, had I permed the 4 from my shortlist into 12 straight-forecasts hen I'd have been richly rewarded, the straight forecast paying £43.69 to a £1 stake.
What readers of the blog should take from this is that the narrative provides as much advice to make profit from as the selections (when they are successful).