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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 1 January 2016
Happy New Year
It is another bumper day of horseracing today with a top-class meeting at Cheltenham. The only downside is that the ground is heavy, and that means we need to be careful in how much we wager - results could be unpredictable.
This is likely to be short
At Cheltenham, the opening hurdle doesn't interest me, and the 3m2f handicap chase at 12:45pm should go to the race-fav Alternatif, but he's no real value at 9/4.
The novice chase at 1:20pm looks a cracker, and should be a treat to watch. Of this talented field of novices, some still have to prove they are worthy of inclusion in this race but one who doesn't is Seeyouatmidnight who looks a 160+ chaser in the making. He handles heavy ground well as a hurdler and it should not inconvenience this horse. At 5/1, he goes on my shortlist.
It is the next race on the card at 1:55pm that is my main focus. A Class 1 handicap chase over nearly 2m5f, this has a very competitive field, with the fav being Village Vic who is unbeaten this season. Has he reached his peak? Raised 8lb to OR144 for his latest win, he started the season on OR125 and I think he may find this race tough to win. The value in this race is with another alert list runner who we wagered on earlier this season - A Good Skin. He looked like winning the "Badger" over 3m1f at Wincanton in November, but faded to be 3rd in the final half-mile. This trip on this testing ground could suit him, and he looks very well handicapped as he's actually been dropped 1lb to OR136 by the handicapper. He only has to carry 10st 2lb today and at 9/1 he looks a good eachway wager. I have been waiting patiently to wager on this horse, and if the ground were not heavy then (even in this competitive race) he would be a win wager. Of the others; Mon Successeur has been hammmered by the handicapper, Tenor Nivernais has struggled to hold form in the past, and Top Gamble is finding his OR153 rating tough.
In the 2m4f Relkeel hurdle at 3:05pm, Top Notch did us proud LTO but this longer trip on heavy ground may find him out, so I cannot advise a wager on him today even though I think he's the best horse in the race on todays terms.
Just the one selection today - A GOOD SKIN in the Cheltenham 1:55pm £5 eachway and £5 win @ 9/1 - but be quick as those odds a tumbling!