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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 15 February 2016
The early bird catches the worm
It is in the 4:10pm race, a 3m1f handicap Class 3 chase at Catterick, with 10-runners. This looks a cracker of a race for the course, and a competitive handicap.
There are 4 in the field who are on my alert list: Another Hero, Jac The Legend, Straidnahanna, and Shimla Dawn. Of those 4, Shimla Dawn seems to be struggling to find his best trip despite winning his debut chase over 2m4f, and he didn't stay 2m7f when tried at the trip in November. Jac The Legend, is better than his OR113 rating and ran over an inadequate trip LTO (2m4f) but he will have to go some to hold a few in this field. Another Hero looks a class horse in the making. He is 2 from 2 in chase races, and runs off OR136 today after being raised only 5lb for the latest win. After that run, I thought he could be a potential 150+ horse, so he is a serious contender today. It is STRAIDNAHANNA on whom I am having a wager today.
This horse looked well handicapped when running off OR131 at Haydock in November when falling with the race at his mercy. He's run well since in two further races, but does make the odd jumping error. He has been dropped 3lb to OR128 which, in my book, gives him a helluva chance especially as he's a C&D winner, and Catterick suits a prominent-runner like him. Trainer Sue Smith has a great record at Catterick, and she has only two horses entered here today, with her other horse looking to hold no realistic chance.
Of the others, I think Looking Well still has a bit to prove and does not justify his 3/1 quote in the betting market. As for Warrantor, I think he'd prefer a slog in the mud, and with the ground good-to-soft in places it will likely be too quick for him.
What has swung me from Another Hero to Straidnahanna are the odds: currently Straidnahanna is 10/1 with Paddy Power and Bet Victor (I actually took 9/1 on the train into London as I thought that would go quickly). I reckon he is more like a 9/2 chance today in this field.
Catterick 4:10 STRIADNAHANNA, £5 eachway @ 10/1 (BetVictor or PaddyPower, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)