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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 20 February 2016
Reputations to be made and lost today
We have 3 good jump race meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton, and a stack of horse alerts from my alert list. Unfortunately, most of the races have small fields, and finding value is tricky - it is thin on the ground. I'm debating whether to have a wager at all, or maybe have just one wager, or even make 3 selections and combine in doubles and trebles.
Let's start with Ascot, where the novices chase at 1:50pm over 3-mile looks an exciting renewal of the Reynoldstown Chase. There are 3 from my alert list in this, and the one who looks best placed is Onenightinvienna who is proven at the trip, on the ground and has the form in the book - at 11/4 he looks fair value.
The 2:25pm sees exciting novice Waldorf Salad return to the track after his gallant race at Cheltenham last month. Unfortunately, he's up against the top handicap chaser Sausalito Sunrise and even in receipt of 18lb he could find life tough as I rate Sausalito Sunrise better than OR150. At 3:35pm we have the main event, the Ascot Chase over 2m5f which is a stepping stone to the Ryanair Chase at the Festival. No matter how I look at the form book, this race is between Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti and both need to win this race to recapture their reputation. At the odds, I am with Dynaste who I think does not really stay 3-mile as a chaser (at his best) but has always run well at this sort of trip. Odds of 4/1 look generous to me given nothing else (other than Conti) is within 7lb of him in the race.
Haydock offers top-class racing including at 2:05pm the 2m7f Rendelsham Hurdle. The fav is the 11yo Reve De Sivola who ran here 4-weeks ago in the Peter Marsh Chase. Personally, I think he will struggle today to hold AT FISHERS CROSS who looked a 160+ hurdler in the World Hurdle last March, and who's comeback run when 2nd in Ireland over 3-mile suggests he is the best at this trip in the race. The one I fear most is the Paul Nicholls trained Silsol who reverts to hurdling having not hit the heights as a novice chaser, but his stamina isn't proven. Odds of 4/1 look generous about AT FISHERS CROSS.
The Grand National Trial at 2:40pm looks a cracker of a race. To be run on heavy ground it will take some staying and no surprise to see dual Welsh National winner Mountainous as the 5/1 fav. However, he may have trouble meeting that winning form again so soon after that win LTO, and BROADWAY BUFFALO comes here fresh and running off a good mark of OR140. He's already won at Haydock on heavy ground and looks to have plenty of potential still. Also best-priced at 5/1, he will stake some beating.
Finally we also have the Wincanton meeting, and here I find it interesting that Charlie Longsdon is preserving the chase rating of Cadoudoff by running him over hurdles in the 2:50pm race there. Later at 3:55pm there is a very competitive 2-mile handicap chase with 6-runners and you cannot really discount any. I have Gardefort on my alert list and - on his day - he looks better than OR141. However, he does not always show his best form. Ulck Du Lin showed what he is capable of too LTO at Sandown, but he is another who does not always show his best, and he's up 4lb for that run too. However, I think putting 5lb claimer Charlie Deutsch in the saddle could swing it for GARDEFORT, and odds of 9/4 look fair.
So, where is my money going?
I like the novice chaser ONENIGHTINVIENNA and as he has a lot of ticks in the boxes and I like to keep things simple - stick to fact, not potential - the 11/4 looks good to me.
DYNASTE is now 9/2 and that looks too long to me, as I'd have him joint-fav at 3/1, as I think he will enjoy the good lead he will get from Silviniaco Conti, who he has only ever met at 3-mile.
Lastly, AT FISHERS CROSS is the class horse in his race and I cannot understand why 9/2 is available (Paddy Power & William Hill), he has to be a wager.
Ascot 1:55pm ONENIGHTINVIENNA, £7 win @ 11/4 (available generally)
Ascot 3:35pm DYNASTE, £7 win @ 9/2 (available generally)
Haydock 2:05pm AT FISHERS CROSS, £7 win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power and William Hill)
Plus: 3 x £2 win doubles
Plus: £3 win treble
Total staked = £30