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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 18 February 2016

Possible value in a 4-runner race

The good news is that the meeting at Leicester today goes ahead, having passed an 8am inspection.  The bad news is that my intended selection STILLETTO is best priced at 13/8 which is below my “value” cut-off of 9/4 – so I will not be advising STILLETTO as a wager for the blog.  That does not mean that I am putting you off having a wager, as I think STILLETTO is just about nailed-on, so long as he’s not feeling any lack of confidence following his fall LTO.
The reason for my 9/4 odds cut-off is that I want to distance myself away from those “tipsters” who post selections with SP’s of 4/5 or 5/4 in 5-horse races without understanding the “risks” involved. With any wager, there has to be a margin of safety to make the process worthwhile.
There are a couple of other horses from my alert list running today (as well as STILLETTO) and they are CORRIN WOOD in the 3:05pm at Kelso, and PILGRIMS BAY in the 3:40pm at Kelso.  There is also a meeting at Fontwell today, making 3 jump race meetings.  Unfortunately, most of today’s races are at Class 4 level or lower and (along with my “no odds below 9/4” rule) I’ve decided not to wager on races below Class 3 this season.
So, what of my other pair of alert-list runners? CORRIN WOOD is entered in a 3m2f chase at Kelso.  You have to remember he looked an above-average novice chaser (I thought he was 155+), and was the fav for the Peter Marsh Chase run at Haydock in January 2015 off a mark of OR146 – yet he’s now rated OR141.  He won 3 times as a novice chaser, beating only a maximum of 3 rivals in each of those races. As such, being up against just 3 rivals today could be just the sort of conditions he may enjoy.  My only doubt is the trip, as I feel he never really stayed 3-mile well enough hence his form tailed-off when outside novice company.  Of his rivals, Neptune Equester is a plodder who will stay all day but won’t have the speed to beat any here – his only chance of winning is if the other 3 do not finish.  Soll won LTO, but now the 11yo runs off a career-high rating of OR152.  However, it is one thing to beat “veterans” and quite another when up against younger horses. Unioniste last won off OR148 at Sandown over 3-miles in January 2015 yet, since then, his form has been in the doldrums.  He was re-rated to OR159 after that win, and has slipped to OR149 today; the 8yo producing perhaps his best run since that win LTO at Sandown on the 6th February when 3rd over 3-miles. He is a slow horse though, and his jumping can be poor.  This race isn’t a handicap and so (on official ratings) Soll is best-off, but I think he may struggle against these younger horses. CORRIN WOOD should be getting 8lb off Unioniste, but only receives 4lb – however, I think that could be enough to swing things his way should his stamina hold, and odds of 7/1 (Stan James and Skybet) in this 4-runnner race look wrong, especially as his trainer Don McCain has been winning a few races recently.
The race involving PILGRIMS WAY looks tricky. Generally, I enjoy these stayers’ hurdle races, but this one looks very competitive.  So I’m giving this race a miss.
Later this evening, I’m driving down to Cornwall to spend the weekend with my young son who lives in Truro with his mum.  The last time I went down to Cornwall for the weekend was quite memorable for followers of the blog as – during the course of the weekend – I tipped Wakanda @ 8/1, Pendra @ 8/1 and Vintage Star @ 10/1.  Here’s hoping this weekend will be just as productive.

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