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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 24 December 2017
Boxing Day 2017
I do not want to be diverted by the feature races at Kempton, so I'm starting my review of the racing with Wetherby's card - and that is where champion jockey Richard Johnson is riding and he could provide us with a few winners. Johnson rides Petticoat Tails for Warren Greatrex in the opener at 12:30pm. Greatrex has a 28% strike-rate at Wetherby (25% in hurdle races) and he travels 198 miles to race here. Johnson also rides the stables Aloomomo in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 2:10pm, and Bright Tomorrow in the handicap hurdle at 2:45pm. I like the chance of Aloomomo as he won off OR129 at Newbury over almost 2m7f on soft and he races off OR133 in this race. He could be a 140+ chaser based on that Newbury win, and he comes here race-fit from hurdling.
The Rowland Meyrick is a top handicap chase and last years 2nd Wakanda (an old favourite of mine) races off OR144 which is 5lb lower than last year, but his run LTO did not inspire my confidence in him. I think his stablemate Delusionofgrandeur has a better chance, but he's up 8lb to OR142 for his LTO win. This Sue Smith trained pair will likely try and force the pace and this should suit Aloomomo. Richard Johnson also rides Grey Gold for Kerry Lee in the 2m3f chase at 1:40pm, and though he's 12yo (he's 13yo on 1st Jan) this horse is Kerry Lee's only runner here and could go very well.
Market Rasen has the Linconshire National over 3m3f as the feature race, and this race has a few interesting runners. There are 3 trainers with good strike-rates and only one runner entered at the meeting: Saint John Henry (David Pipe 30% in chases), Vinegar Hill (Stuart Edmunds 50% in chases); and Petite Power (Fergal O'Brien 24% in chases) - however, I don't think either of them look the likely winner. For me, BORIC who has been in the form of his life this season looks the most likely winner over this trip as he will stay every yard. So long as the ground does not turn heavy, he has a great chance.
Fontwell looks tricky meeting. There are several that interest me: in the 2m2f handicap chase at 2:00pm Bredon Hill Lad is a C&D winner who won LTO and this could be an easy task for him. Dan Skelton has runners all over the place, yet he sends just one here in It's Afreebee who wears blinkers for the 1st-time in an effort to revive his form. I also like the look of Marienstar in the final race of the meeting who is the only runner here for Neil King.
Wincanton has a good Class 3 chase in the Lord Stalbridge Handicap over 3m1f at 2:05pm. Last years race was a fiasco as a loose horse brought down all but one of the entire field and then the final horse standing pulled-up and refused to race. Kerry Lee (see Wetherby above) sends Krackatoa King for this and it's her only runner here - I think the horse has a great chance in this race as he is a dour stayer in good form.
Sedgefield has a good meeting, and the busy Dan Skelton sends a couple here too. The horse travelling the furthest is Glimpse Of Gold in the 12:25pm sent by Tim Vaughan. Vaughan has a decent strike-rate here and this horse was in good form in the Spring. He ran in a chase LTO on 23rd October, and I think the horse has been aimed at this race. At 2:05pm there is a 2m3f handicap chase which looks like it lacks depth and the consistent Whitsundays could be the answer. He wasn't beaten far over C&D back in March and had his first run after a 6-month break on 2nd December when he ran 2nd at Bangor over 2m1f, and it looks like this has been his target for some time.
Huntingdon is where Venetia Williams sends her only runner of the day: Becauseshesaidso in the 2m7f handicap chase at 3:00pm - however, I'm not convinced that the horse will stay this trip. Even so, the field for this race is so weak it will not take a lot of winning.
At Kempton, the novice chases at 1:20pm and 1:55pm are worth watching but they are too competitive to wager in. The feature race, the King George VI Chase at 3:05pm looks like being a cracker and for me the interesting thing is the entry of Fox Norton. If Fox Norton can find some improvement - and it only needs to be about 5lb - then he's bang in there with a chance of winning this. I'm not yet convinced Might Bite is the world-beater that people think, and at the odds I'm solidly behinf Bristol De Mai who I think should be the fav considering he's won at right-handed Sandown, and was a top-class novice chaser with form on good-to-soft ground. Sure, he's a better chaser on soft ground (or worse), but he's no slouch on good-to-soft either.
So, my Yankee Shortlist is:-
Wetherby 2:10 - ALOOMOMO
Market Rasen 2:15 - BORIC
Fontwell 2:00 - BREDON HILL LAD
Sedgefield 2:05 - WHITSUNDAYS
Huntingdon 3:00 - BECAUSESHESAIDSO
Kempton 3:05 - BRISTOL DE MAI
The final Yankee is:-
Fontwell 2:00 - BREDON HILL LAD @ 3/1 (Stan James) very consistent performer
Sedgefield 2:05 - WHITSUNDAYS @ 3/1 (Stan James) looks like he has been aimes at this race
Wetherby 2:10 - ALOOMOMO @ 3/1 (Stan James) this horse could be 10lb ahead of the handicapper
For the final selection I will be on
Market Rasen 2:15 - BORIC @ 8/1 (Stan James) a dour stayer he will run to his rating but may need a bit of luck.
OR you could have...
Kempton 3:05 - BRISTOL DE MAI @ 9/2 (Stan James) this horse is a proven performer and he should be the fav for this race at 2/1, these odds are an insult.
£2 win yankee and £1.50 eachway yankee = £55 staked