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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 11 January 2018

First blog of the year

Since Boxing Day, I have been absent from the blog - nothing sinister, just taking a time-out - and a few regular readers have asked when I will be returning, and here I am. We went close on Boxing Day to finding a winning double from the 4 selections in the "yankee", but close isn't good enough.
The feature race of Boxing Day at Kempton was, in my opinion, a bit disappointing. Yes the race-fav Might Bite won, but he didn't look convincing did he?  The pace set in the 1st-half of the race really took its toll and it may be that Bristol De Mai - who lost ground rapidly when he was a spent force - may have still been feeling his exertions of his wins earlier in the season.  The first horse to show distress signals was Whisper, the stablemate of Might Bite, and he showed that he's not quite Grade 1 as a chaser at this 3-mile trip.  For me, the fact that Double Shuffle finished so close to the winner really put a downer on the formline.

We have since learned that Thistlecrack has suffered a hairline fracture, and while that isn't "career-ending" it does mean he is out for the rest of the season.  I expect he will be aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury in the autumn now.

Onto today's racing and there are some interesting races on what could be a dull day.  At Leicester, there is what should be an informative 2-mile novice chase at 12:45pm, and (as I write) I'm glad I took the early 9/2 about Diamond Rock who is to be ridden by Richard Johnson as he's as short as 3/1 with most bookies now.  He was beaten LTO by Vocaliser, but is 3lb better off with that one today - and having Johnson in the saddle must be worth a few pounds too!  However, my biggest wager is on the 2-mile handicap chase at Catterick at 1:30pm and that is on DRESDEN.  This horse may not have won since November 2015, but he was rated OR149 after that win and while he struggled from that lofty rating, he showed earlier this year with a couple of 2nd's off OR141 and OR142 that he still has fire in the belly. His last 7 races have been over 2m4f - 2m5f and he does not realy stay that sort of trip, he is a 2-miler at heart and the return to that trip today and with him racing off a rating of OR132 he should have an excellent chance of winning. The one horse in the race that I fear is Un Prophete sent here by Venetia Williams, but he can make the odd catastrophic jumping error, and so the value for me is in Dresden, who is currently at 11/4 - I would not take less than 9/4.

The "National" Chase handicap later on the card at 2:35pm looks very competitive - I cannot split the race-fave I Just Know, Sun Cloud, Itstimeforapint and Gonalston Cloud. The horse with potential is the 8yo I Just Know but I'm not convinced by his formlines.  The 11yo Sun Cloud has been well prepared for this race running over hurdles and winning his last 2 races in that sphere, he comes here in top form.  Readers of the blog will know I rate Gonalston Cloud as an out-and-out stayer but he does lack a turn of foot.  If he's close-up coming to the final fence he could outstay them all. In 3rd place last year (behind Gonalston Cloud who was 2nd) was Itstimeforapint and he meets that rival on 3lb better terms for a neck beating. If he is in similar form today he will take all the beating. This is possibly a race to play on the place-only markets, or to wager in-running.

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