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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 13 January 2018
Another good winner for the blog
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There is some good racing today with meetings at Warwick, Wetherby and Kempton with the Betfred Classic handicap chase at Warwick at 3:35pm being the highlight of the day, and Missed Approach who I tipped for glory in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury (probably just lacked a bit of fitness that day) can find compensation in this. He's been dropped 6lb in the handicap which is a bonus, and the soft ground should not be a problem as he's won over 3-mile on heavy ground. Goodtoknow ran 2nd in this race last year when beaten by subsequent Grand National winner One For Arthur, but he came into that race in better form than he's shown this year. The horse I fear most is course winner Krackatoa King who stays this trip well and come into the race in top form. His riders 5lb allowance could make all the difference as he will be carrying 17lb less than Missed Approach. Unfortunately, the best odds available this morning is 5/1 (there was plenty of 7/1 last night) and so the best of the value has gone. That Richard Johnson has opted not to ride (and his book of rides at Wetherby isn't great) suggests there is a doubt over whether he will stay this trip carry top-weight of 11st 12lb. It's one of these "win or bust" wagers, don't bother with eachway on Missed Approach
Earlier on the card, the 2-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 1:15pm looks an interesting betting race as the fav Swift Crusader didn't stay 2m4f LTO and it's hoped this return to 2-mile will see a return to form. I'm not so sure, and as I think Azzuri has "topped-out" at OR129 it may pay to look at the 9yo BIG JIM who has missed most of last season (only ran once) and ran ok on his seasonal debut in November. He should improve on that today and if he can recapture the form of his last win in April 2016 then off OR120 he could be hard to beat. Odds of 11/2 are available and that looks value to me for a horse that won this race in 2016.
The 3-mile Class 2 handicap hurdle at 2:25pm is the sort of race I like - competitive, and yet over a trip that will sort out the proper stayers from the also-rans. Top-weight Prime Venture could be very good or his 12lb uplift inthe handicap for his LTO win could be a bit much. The fav is the 6yo Black Ivory but he didn't win on his only try at this trip and yet races off a mark 10lb higher than he did on that day - I think he can be opposed. The horse I like in this race is THE ORGANIST who is a proven stayer, comes here in form and has no problem with the ground - odds of 7/1 look a fair to me. Given the competitive nature of this race, eachway is the way to go.
Wetherby is interesting as champion jockey Richard Johnson rides there. I expect the reason he's at Wetherby is to ride the promising 7yo hurdler Westend Story in the 2:50pm Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m4f as the form of his race LTO has worked out very well and he could possibly be about 7lb well-in running off an unchanged mark of OR124. As such, odds of 11/4 look good value to me.
What I will be placing wagers on today are:-
Warwick 3:35 - MISSED APPROACH - £10 win @ 5/1
and KRACKATOA KING - £5 eachway @ 9/1
Warwick 1:15 - BIG JIM - £5 win @ 11/2
Warwick 2:25 - THE ORGANIST - £5 eachway @ 7/1
Wetherby 2:50 - WESTEND STORY - £10 win @ 11/4