2018 Bet Victor Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham

What a cracking day of horseracing, I wish I was at Cheltenham today.
The blog did well yesterday, looked at 3 races and came up with 2 winners in Bun Doran and Josies Orders, but the advised selection Lovely Job was very disappointing and finished out of the places.  I can't explain that other than it's likely the horse did not want to be there on the day. 
However, what a run from THE YOUNG MASTER, bold foot-perfect jumping showed he is back to his best and he looks set for a very good season and a Grand National bid next April must be on the cards.
Back to today and the feature race at Cheltenham is the BetVictor Gold Cup at 2:25pm. I looked at this race earlier in the week, and there are two horses that I think will be thereabouts at the finish: FRODON and BARON ALCO.  The "good" ground will be no problem for Frodon as he has lots of winning form on similar, and if he can repeat his win here last January off OR154 (he runs off OR161 today) he could well take all the beating. However, possibly the best handicapped horse in the race is Baron Alco, who ran up against the talented Charbel LTO and just failed. That run was off the back of an 18-month break back to when he was 2nd at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival to Road To Respect (now rated OR161) so it is no surprise that he was unable to give a 1lb to that horse when beaten 6-lengths. Baron Alco could well be a 150+ horse, possibly 155+, and running off OR146. 
The race is very competitive and there could be a surprise winner, but it is unlikely, and the winner is likely to come from the head of the market.   There is not much between Rather Bee and Mr Whitaker, and of that pair I favour the latter mainly as he has more experience at this level.
My money will be on BARON ALCO @ 11/1.

In the 3m3f handicap chase at 1:50pm the one horse that jumps out at me is the in-form COGRY. He runs off OR139 but I reckon he's capable of winning off that rating, and the biggest issue for me will be his stamina and I just hope it lasts out.  Rock The Kasbah will be thereabouts if he handles Cheltenham but he didn't seem to enjoy the place when he last ran here 2 years ago as a novice chaser and he best form has been on "flat" tracks like Sandown. If the formbook works out then Singlefarmpayment should win, but he's failed to follow-through so many times now when he should have won it's tough to keep putting the money down on him.

Cheltenham 16th November 2018

A tremendous weekend of jump racing at Cheltenham kicks off today at 12:40pm and although there is another jumps meeting at Newcastle, all eyes will be on Prestbury Park.

For me, the best wager of the day could be in the opening race, a 3m1f Class 3 handicap chase for amateur riders run at 12:40pm, and this is a race I've had success in before. Amateur rider races can be a lucrative betting medium as the skill level varies from near professional (the likes of Mr JJ Cobb) to some who do well to stay in the saddle in the paddock.  If you stick to the very best of the riders then you will find most of the winners of these races.

A few weeks ago, I tipped LOVELY JOB when he ran in a Class 2 handicap chase at Chepstow.  That race was won by The Young Master who he meets here today on 8lb better terms (as jockey Sam Waley-Cohen does not claim his 3lb allowance). When approaching the final fence that day, I honestly thought Lovely Job was about to come and win it, but he quickly ran out of puff on the run-in, and I think that was due to lack of race-fitness. He will be a lot better today thanks to that run, and the jockey who rode last year's winner of this race, the capable Mr R O Harding, takes the ride.   The Young Master is currently 4/1 2^nd-fav  and when he won LTO that was his first win since taking the old "Whitbread" on the final day of the jumps season at Sandown in April 2016.  He's run well at Cheltenham off OR150 so he's more than capable of making a bold show off OR135 now he has his mojo back.  Mr JJ Codd rides Station Master, a horse who has only run in one previous chase race – he obviously has potential but at just 5/1 he's far too short in the betting.

The race fav is For Good Measure, and I'm not altogether sure why he is – he's only run in 3 previous chase races and though his rating of OR130 is 7lb lower than his hurdles rating, he barely stayed 3-mile as a hurdler which is not good (in my opinion) for 3-mile chasing.

The 5yo Sky Pirate could be too young for this race, but he ran a cracker LTO when 2^nd to a subsequent winner, and he's likely to be on the premises.

Bally Longford usually needs a run but his rating of OR131, even though it's up 5lb for his win LTO in March, is fair as he's run well before off OR136. The remainder of the field don't look up to winning this race.

For me, LOVELY JOB at 8/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power etc) looks great value as I reckon he has as good a chance as The Young Master on 4/1 and there are doubts over the form of Station Master and For Good Measure.  The interesting one is Sky Pirate who could well improve if he's up for it being just 5yo.

Later in the day, the 2-mile Class 2 handicap chase run at 1:50pm could well go to the current 11/4 fav BUN DORAN, as he goes well here and was just beaten over C&D on his seasonal debut last year.  This is a weak race for the grade though, and he's not the strongest horse in the finish (he's not won for nearly 2 years), so he's not one to risk the mortgage on.

The Grand National winner TIGER ROLL runs in the Cross-Country Chase but he has only one target this year, a repeat Grand National win, and I very much doubt he will be anywhere near ready to win this. JOSIES ORDERS has had the benefit of a hurdle race last month and is a very capable Cross-country chaser and should take all the beating.   

We've another great meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow, and I will be writing-up my notes on the feature race this afternoon.

Just the one wager today: LOVELY JOB, £5 each way & £10 win @ 8/1 (available generally)

Blog readers on BLACK CORTON at 8/1

Quite a busy weekend of racing ahead of us with some terrific jump racing at Ascot and Wetherby today, and the Breeders Cup in America.
Unfortunately, the Good (good-to-firm in places) ground at Wetherby has meant there's a lot of non-runners today and the betting markets will likely be very fluid all day.  There in an interesting Class 3 handicap chase at 1:30pm with just 6 runners now and it may be worth taking a chance on the bottom-weight Absolutely Dylan who made all on his recent chasing debut and could do nothing more than win easily against very poor opposition. However, we do know he jumps well, and he likes to lead, also he's fit to race and there's every likelihood he will improve for that run. Current odds of 11/4 look worthy of a wager, as he could easily be a 140+ chaser in the making as there appears nothing at all special in this race.

The big disappointment of the day is the feature race at Wetherby, the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase, which now has only 4 runners.  Regular readers of the blog will have taken my advice on Tuesday evening when I put my blog online and taken the odds of 8/1 about BLACK CORTON.  Right now he's the race fav at  just 13/8, and it is difficult to see the horse losing this afternoon with just 3 rivals .  I know several of you went in at 8/1 and we are now looking very smug. 

Racing at Ascot is a lot more competitive as the ground there is perfect - Good. The novice handicap chase at 1:50pm looks interesting as I'm a big fan of STERNRUBIN and if he can get to the level he was at over hurdles - he loves Ascot and won the Ladbroke (handicap) hurdle off OR134 and the William Hill (Listed) handicap hurdle off OR142 -  then you have to think his current chase rating of OR137 is very lenient and odds of 9/2 could be generous.
In the feature race at Ascot at 3:35pm, a Grade 3 handicap chase over 3-mile, I do not think the odds of 7/2 about last years winner Go Conquer are very generous as his form tailed-off last season. He's 9yo now and I think his best days are behind him, but not so the top-weight TRAFFIC FLUID who was very highly tried last season and saw his handicap mark drop from OR156 to OR140 which allowed him to win a Grade 2 handicap chaseat Cheltenham in April. He ran well recently in his seasonal debut running 2nd at Chepstow, and I can see him going really well off OR149. Odds of 5/1 are not great though but when you look at the opposition you realise he might well start less than that.

Not a day for having big money on, and I think I will sit on my wager at 8/1 on BLACK CORTON and watch the rest of the day with interest.

Thursday 1st November 2018

November is one of the most exciting months in jump racing. 

Last seasons favourites take to the course and attempt to repeat past glories; novice chasers intent on a festival prize in the 2019 take their first (hopefully not tentative) jumps in public; and "store" horses emerge with reputations to build in novice hurdles.  It's also a great time for 2nd-season chasers, and pundits like me hope to find those horses that have escaped the focus of the handicapper and start the season on a lenient rating.

There are a couple of meetings today at Stratford and Sedgefield, but the small fields do not offer much opportunity for value. The 3m3f handicap hurdle run at Sedgefield at 3:30pm will be a stamina-sapping test for the 5 runners even on the "good" ground, but one that catches the eye is WESTERN SUNRISE who stays this trip, has been running well recently, and comes here for this instead of running at Uttoxeter tomorrow (where he also holds an entry).  With neither Nemean Lion and Tickenwolf having recent form that suggests they might win, the race looks between Western Sunrise, More Than Luck and Same Circus and they are all at odds of around 3/1.  I'm discounting Same Circus as he does not appear to run well off a break and it's 150-days since his last run. More Than Luck has been running well in chase races recently, but he was not much of a hurdler and he may lack that bit of speed at the business end to win the race. For me, WESTERN SUNRISE represents the best chance of winning and current odds of 11/4 might not be bettered, as I can see him starting the 9/4 fav, he may even go off at 2/1.

At Stratford, there is an interesting 2m3f Class 3 handicap chase which last year was won by the decent, but ill-fated, chaser Starchitect.  There appears to be nothing of that quality in today's field, but you never know. 

For me, the most likely winner is the 6yo Comanche Chieftain who has won here at Stratford several times. He didn't stay the 3-mile trip at Fakenham LTO, but his ability carried him through the race and today's trip will suit him much better. The current race fav Cobra De Mai also found the 3-mile trip too much to handle when he tackled it at Chepstow LTO, but his overall performance was not as promising as COMANCHE CHIEFTAIN, and odds of 100/30 look fair although I would prefer odds of 4/1 or longer as this could be a competitive race.

I cannot advise a wager but, if you are, keep stakes small as these are early days in the jumps season, and we have a great weekend of racing ahead of us with plenty of wagering opportunities.