Cheltenham Festival 2024 - update 6th March

An interesting day today (no, not the Budget) as the confirmed runners were named for the opening day of the Festival.  For me, the biggest disappointment was the continued demise of the NH Chase, which is the race with the longest history at the Cheltenham Festival. Was it the reduction of the trip for this race to 3m6f that was the nail in the coffin? I don't know, but what I do know is that there are only 10 potential runners in the race as of today; and I would not be surprised if only 7 or 8 go to post.

That's the same for the opening race of the Festival: the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Currently there are a potential 15 runners in the race; but I doubt Mullins will send 100/1 chances Gold Dancer and Supersundae to take part; and Kings Hill and Favour And Fortune are also outclassed and unlikely runners. Mullins is responsible for 7 of the remaining 11 potential runners, so let's look at the "non-Mullins" horses. My favourite is Firefox trained by Gordon Elliott: it looked like he didn't stay 2m4f LTO when fading after the final flight, but his run before that when he beat the current fav Ballyburn looked top class. It's probable that Ballyburn has improved since then, but then it's likely Firefox has too. Nicky Henderson has the 5yo Jeriko Du Reponet (owned by JP McManus), but I'm not sure that he's good enough, although you can never underestimate a Henderson entry. Henry de Bromhead has Slade Steel, who was comprehensively beaten by Ballyburn LTO. Ben Pauling sends the 5yo Tellherthename and he thinks a lot of this one who cost £200k; unfortunately the form is difficult to assess. 

Of the Mullins entries, it all hangs on Ballyburn: clearly a class horse, personally I think 2m4f is the way to go and that Mullins hasn't shown his hand yet suggests if he thinks he can win the Supreme with another horse he will. The JP McManus owned Mystical Power is also entered in the Baring Bingham over 2m5f on Wed, and as his dam Annie Power stayed 3-mile (as well as being good enough to win the Champion Hurdle) it would not surprise me if he went for that race instead (leaving McManus to have Jeriko Du Reponet representing him). So, that would leave Tullyhill who looked to have exceptional potential when winning LTO to be the main Mullins representative. Mullins does have a strong hand for the Baring Bingham as he also has Ile Atlantique who looks like he needs 2m5f. The Festival could have come a bit too soon for the 5yo's Mistergif and Anotherway; and Asian Master just isn't good enough (but could be used as a pace-maker). 

I think we will see Firefox / Jeriko Du Reponet / Slade Steel / Tellherthename / Ballyburn / Tullyhill and Asian Master line-up (7 runners) - and I'm on Firefox already at 10/1 and I'm also interested in taking the current odds of 4/1 on Tullyhill just-in-case Mullins sends Ballyburn for the Baring Bingham on Wednesday.

The Arkle Novices Chase over 2-mile is yet another race which could have under 10 going to post. Mullins holds 5 of the 15 entries confirmed today, and it's very likely that he will have the fav in Il Etait Temps who was last seen staying-on strong to win the Irish Arkle. Now, I like this horse but my worry is that he didn't repeat the level of form he showed last year at the Dublin Festival and either Cheltenham or Punchestown - but he should run a solid race. Will he, or won't he run Gaelic Warrior? Even if he does run him, after his display LTO when he appeared to hate running left-handed, I can't have him. If Townend doesn't ride him I won't have a penny on. The well-bred Facile Vega looks desperately wanting 2m4f and I expect to see that one run in the "Turners" on Thursday. There are a lot of good judges putting-up Hunters Yarn, and he clearly has an engine, but he's made significant errors in both his races and I don't think he's a 5/1 chance.  And I really cannot see him running Sharjah in this race at 11yo - he's been a good servant, time to put him out to grass. Of the others; my particular fav is Found A Fifty: he's done nothing wrong in his 4 chase races this season, and the form bares-up to inspection; not only that he has the stamina for 2m4f and he likes to lead. Some many ticks in the boxes. The 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios has recovered his form after 2 years on the side-lines. He beat Sa Fureur LTO (that one holds a couple of handicap entries) over 2-miles but I think he could be better over 2m4f,and he doesn't look value to me at 6/1. Personally, I don't think any of the other entries are good enough to win an Arkle, but I do think My Mate Mozzie is one of the best handicapped novice chasers around going into the Festival - he's going to take a some to be beaten in the Grand Annual on Wednesday.

After the Irish Arkle, I took 6/1 about both Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty, and I'm going to increase my stake on Found A Fifty as I think he's bullet-proof.  

The withdrawal of Constitution Hill has thrown the Champion Hurdle into a quandary -how to make this a meaningful race? In some respects, I'm laughing - Nicky Henderson (in my opinion) has egg all over his face as, by his own insecurity, he's wasted this season. The defection also clearly demonstrates the lack of depth in the hurdling division - something I've been remarking on for years as Faugheen in 2015 was the last "proper" Champion Hurdler and had he not been injured he'd have surely followed-up in 2016 and 2017. This will be a virtual walkover for State Man.  I very much doubt the mare Lossiemouth will run being just a 5yo, and the same goes for Zarak The Brave. Gordon Elliott will probably provide the runner-up, being either Irish Point or Pied Piper. Personally, I think Pied Piper is nailed on for 2nd as that's the position he filled in the County Hurdle last season when just failing to win. However, he's apparently going for the County again (which is gutting for me as I have a 40/1 ew wager on him for the Champion Hurdle, plus a double with Firefox in the Supreme). As such, if none of those 3 run, then the most logical selection for 2nd is Irish Point, but he wasn't exactly quick as a novice hurdler, and he looks more comfortable over 2m4f.  Therefore, it's no surprise that Henderson and JP McManus have entered the Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner Iberico Lord; odds of 16/1 are available and that's fair. Note: £10 on State Man at 2/5 returns £14; whereas £5 eachway at 16/1 on Iberico Lord returns £21 for 2nd or 3rd place.

The Mares Hurdle over 2m4f is yet another race dominated by a Willie Mullins trained odds-on fav in Lossiemouth. The only chink in her formbook is that she's not won beyond 2m1f; and I expect that's why Mullins has also entered Ashroe Diamond who is guaranteed to stay.  However, I think Love Envoi could have something to say in this race, having chased home Honeysuckle last year; she's the one I think that looks the value at 10/1. Although Marie's Rock is a better mare now than she was when she won this race in 2022, she's not at the level she needs to be to win. The Mullins-trained Echoes In Rain and Gala Marceau are just not good enough on known form. It may be worth having a small ew wager on You Wear It Well who won the Mares Novice Hurdle last year and perhaps didn't stay 3-mile when going close at Doncaster. She flopped LTO so if there's a doubt about her being in top form she may not run; but she could sneak 3rd place at 50/1.

Now, the NH Chase over 3m6f. The current fav is Corbetts Cross, and yes, he's a horse of potential - that's why he started the "Albert Bartlett" Novice Hurdle over 3-miles at last years' Festival the 9/4 fav - he's failed to show that promise yet, but he has hinted at it. That he was easily beaten over 3-mile at Leopardstown on 29-Dec suggests he's not the strongest. The 2nd fav Embassy Gardens has a stronger profile having won both his chase starts with ease; he just may lack a bit of pace. The Gordon Elliott trained Salvatore Ziggy is interesting: he stays 3-mile as a hurdler and a chaser, and goes well off a long break - he easily has the strongest form. Nothing else in the race comes within 10lb of those 3, and this is a race which is invariably won by the highest rated runner (yes, it's seems obvious, but "dark horses" with only 1 or 2 races showing indeterminate ability, don't win the NH Chase). Odds of 9/2 are available on Salvatore Ziggy from Coral and Ladbrokes, and that may seem very generous come Tuesday afternoon, 

I will be having a long look at the Ultima Handicap Chase later in the week.

Cheltenham Festival update - 12th Feb

Following on from Saturday's blog, I'm continuing with a look through the Cheltenham Festival programme in the search for value.  It's too early to consider the handicaps, there will be plenty of time to consider those when the declarations are made.

The 2nd-day of the Festival (13th March) opens with the

Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle over 2m5f

For a long time this was the premier novice hurdle of the season, but since Faugheen won in 2014, the winners of this race haven't really progressed as expected.  The race does illustrate the transfer of power from England to Ireland as in the past 10 years, there's only been one winner of the race trained in England and that was Willoughby Court in 2017.

I think Mullins will run Ballyburn in this race rather than the "Supreme" on the opening day. Why? Because this looks a weaker race, especially as Caldwell Potter is not running at the Festival; as such, Mullins trains all the main contenders. Slade Steel (de Bromhead) doesn't look anywhere near good enough; Mystical Power (Mullins) is more likely to run in the Supreme; as will Ile Atlantique (Mullins). As for Readin Tommy Wrong (Mullins) while he will likely run in this race, I feel he is more of a 3-miler and he also holds an entry for the "Albert Bartlett". 

Skybet offer odds of 2/1 (NRNB) on Ballyburn, and I'm taking that.

Brown Advisory Novice Chaser over 3-mile

This race, and the NH Chase on the opening day, look fairly open.  Mullins has only won this twice in the past 10 years, and his likely 1st-string Grangeclare West is apparently out for the season.  I'm expecting Fact To File (Mullins) to go for the "Turners" on Day-3 over 2m4f, and (with Gaelic Warrior seemingly unable to run left-handed) his main chance in this race was expected to be  one of  Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner, or Embassy Gardens.  

Given how Nick Rockett and Minella Cocooner flopped yesterday, it should be Embassy Gardens and I'm tempted to take the 11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365.

However, the English trainers have a strong hand for this race in Stay Away Fay (PF Nicholls) and Grey Dawning (Dan Skelton). Both of these are proven at the trip and have very strong form.  The current odds offered on both Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning are poor value, and I reckon you will be able to obtain around 9/2 - 11/2 on the day; and there's a strong possibility that Stay Away Fay will go for the NH Chase over 3m6f.

Right now, I'm only interested in the 11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365 on Embassy Gardens.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

It's near impossible to consider any other horse other than El Fabiolo winning this, and if he doesn't it will be Jonbon. However, in jump racing nothing is certain, as Jonbon proved LTO - there's always a possibility of jumping errors, although I hope that doesn't happen. What could be 3rd? There's a lot of support for Edwardstone after his win at Newbury on Saturday, but I'm not sure he's at his best at Cheltenham, and last year's runner-up Captain Guinness (currently 20/1 with Skybet) could be the one.

The only other non-handicap race (I'm not looking at the Cross Country race which should be run at another track and has no place at the Festival) is the "Bumper" but I'd want odds of 5/1 just to name a runner in the race, never mind the eventual winner.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - general update (10th Feb)

I've started this blog several times over the past couple of weeks, but then left it unfinished as the antepost odds available do not accommodate enough "risk" element to cover the potential of not running in the race on the day.  The "Non Runner, No Bet" (NRNB) odds are truly pathetic and I'm fairly sure that better value will be available at the Festival in March. So what's this blog about? Essentially, I'm going to try and narrow down the entries to identify the likely runners, and in the process endeavour to find some value - if it exists.

Tuesday 12th March

Supreme Novices' Hurdle:

Current fav is Ballyburn (WP Mullins) and while he looks a capable winner at this stage, I think he's a better horse at 2m4f+ (like his full brothers) and so he's more likely to go for the 2m5f hurdle on Day-2.  Mystical Power is a more likely runner for Mullins, but his form doesn't appear strong enough to suggest he's a likely winner. I'm expecting Mullins to have several runners in the race, one being Mirazur West a full-brother of Ferny Hollow, and another being Mistergif an expensive purchase given a run on 30th Jan. While you cannot ignore Henderson entries in this race, what we've seen of Jeriko Di Reponet does not suggest he's good enough to win this race.  With Gordon Elliott losing Caldwell Potter (now with Paul Nicholls) his main hope is Firefox, and this one beat Ballyburn over 2-mile on 02Dec. Firefox was then disappointing stepped-up to 2m4f, but if he lines-up for this and is in top form, he could go close. it would not surprise me to see Mullins have 4 or 5 runners in this race, and Ile Atlantique ticks a lot of boxes, and was only just btn LTO: on form, he looks the strongest Mullins entry after Ballyburn.Of the other entries, the JP McManus owned No Flies On Him could be anything as he won a good race on his sole hurdle run to date. Caldwell Potter may run in this race, but it would not surprise me to see him not run again this season, as his future is as a chaser.

I'm tempted to take NRNB odds about:

Mistergif @ 25/1 (Bet365); Ile Atlantique @ 16/1 (Bet365) and Firefox @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Arkle Novice Chase

I been taking a long-look at this race, and (even before the Dublin Racing Festival) I was liking the look of Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps. Since they finished 1st & 2nd last weekend, I've taken the odds available about the pair, and will plump for one or the other closer to the Festival.  Found A Fifty hasn't run a bad race all season, and looks to want more of a stamina test in time, as such I'm leaning more towards him as my Arkle selection. Despite winning LTO, in my mind Il Etait Temps may be best suited by a flatter track than Cheltenham, and I see him more of an Aintree horse. What of Marine Nationale?  Beaten horses at the DRF tend not to recover and win at Cheltenham - it's not impossible, but it's unlikely. If (like Sizing Europe in 2010) he'd fallen at the final fence when looking the likely winner, I could take a more positive view - but he emptied out quickly suggesting something was amiss (breathing problem?).  One to keep an eye out for is 

My Mate Mozzie: he probably has too much speed, and not enough stamina to win the Arkle, but he looks to be well handicapped.

I'm on Il Etait Temps @ 5/1 (NRNB) and Found A Fifty @ 6/1 (NRNB)

Champion Hurdle

With the front two in the betting Constitution Hill and State Man, unlikely to be beaten by another on the day, there's the 3rd place spot to find.  I was all over Bob Olinger and had an eachway voucher at 33/1 on him - but he now goes straight to Aintree.  Zanahiyr filled 3rd spot last year, but is likely to remain chasing. However, Gordon Elliott has able deputies in Irish Point and Pied Piper, and both look more than capable of taking 3rd in this race. I need to find something similar in another Festival race for a long-odds eachway double.

 

Mares Hurdle 

I really cannot see Lossiemouth running in the Champion Hurdle unless State Man can't take part in that race, and she looks a near certainty to win this. She cannot be opposed.

National Hunt Chase

At this moment, I'm still surprised that Flooring Porter is the 3rd fav as I'd be surprised if he takes part. This race still looks fairly fluid regards what's going to take part, but the "Ten Up" Chase at Naas on Sunday 11th Feb is usually a good pointer. I'm taking Minella Cocooner to beat his stablemate Nick Rockett and leap to joint-fav for the NH Chase - he's currently 8/1 (NRNB). I'm not convinced (yet) by Embassy Gardens, and this looks a good opportunity to lock-in some value.

More to come...

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - general update

Some interesting results in the past week, and an update on the official entries for a slew of races at the Festival. First up, the results.

Banbridge beat a strong field to win the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase over 2m4f & 110 yds with the consistent Pic D'orhy in 2nd. Given this was the 1st run from Banbridge since winning at Aintree over a similar trip, it's possible that there's some improvement to come from the 8yo who has only had 6 chase runs (winning 4). He's entered for the Ryanair Chase at the Festival and so long as the ground isn't too soft (he was withdrawn from the "Turners" Novice Chase won by Stage Star last March, due to soft ground), he has to have a good chance.  However, in my opinion, Stage Star still holds all the aces: he loves Cheltenham, excels at the 2m4f trip, and has the best form at this stage. 

Sunday, saw the potentially talented Blood Destiny come-up against some equally talented peers and falter. Personally, I thought he was outstayed and the Arkle (run over 2-mile) will likely remain his target for the time being, although I expect how he performs in the Irish Arkle on 3rd Feb will determine his target at the Cheltenham Festival. My immediate impression is that he may not be good enough for a graded race at Cheltenham.

I was most impressed with the race winner Spillane's Tower - he was never under any pressure, jumped well throughout, picked-up the leaders and stayed on strong. He's won at 2-miles, but he looks a lot stronger at 2m4f, and if he takes up and entry to the Turners Novice Chase at Cheltenham, he'd certainly be on my shortlist.   

Unfortunately, the official entries have come out for the Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles at the Festival, my my antepost selection Bob Olinger isn't entered, which is a bit of a blow as I thought he had a fair chance of success in that race, but he's no chance in the Champion Hurdle for which he is entered. There is a possibility of him running 3rd, but only if Impaire Et Passe gives the race a swerve and goes straight to Aintree for the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle. I've no doubt that we can recover our antepost loss on him in the weeks to come.

Finding potential antepost wagers isn't easy, as first you have to decide which race the horse is going to run in, and then decide if the horse has a realistic chance of winning, and finally do the current odds represent value. Sure, the odds may be longer now than they will be on the day, but do they include an element of risk that the horse won't run; and even if the horse does run, will it have it's preferred ground?

Looking at the novice hurdle races, the Supreme Novices Hurdle which opens the Festival looks a mess to me.  The current fav Mystical Power ran for the first time today (14Jan) since 31July and could do no more than win a 4-runner race in comparative ease. Just how good is he? It's difficult to say, but probably better than OR145, but is he? The 2nd-fav Jeriko Du Reponet has form even more vague, all we can go off is stable gossip. Ballyburn will almost certainly go for the Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f for which he's the current fav. 

Caldwell Potter? His full-brother Mighty Potter was a top-draw novice hurdler over 2-miles, so there's potential in him. Then, A Dream To Share hasn't run in nearly a year. 

At Naas on Friday 12Jan, Readin Tommy Wrong beat his well-regarded stable companion Ile Atlantique over 2m4f with another well-regarded runner Firefox back in 4th. RTW is likely to go for the Ballymore, but his owners have another of interest in the Supreme: It's For Me, who beat Caldwell Potter when they met in November. He looks the sort who could well find a lot of improvement, as he wasn't beaten far in the Champion Bumper last March. This is a bit of a punt, but so far It's For Me has run well to a high level in his races, but has always failed to settle. If he can calm his enthusiasm, this is a horse that could be very interesting. Unfortunately, Hills - who are the only NRNB bookie - go a paltry 8/1; so I'm recommending a small interest at 20/1 (without the NRNB protection) in It's For Me and we can keep an eye on the horse. 

Antepost Selection:

Supreme Novices Hurdle: IT'S FOR ME 

£2 win @ 20/1 (available with Bet365, Skybet, PPower, Betfair, Betfred)

and £1 ew @ 20/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3)

Total Staked = £4.00

Other wagers to date:

Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR - £8 win @ 7/1 with Bet365

£2 WIN double with Paddy Power : Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER @ 25/1 and Ryanair Chase: STAGE STAR @ 13/2 

Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER - £5 eachway @ 14/1 with Hills (NRNB: 5th odds a place 1,2,3)

Stayers Hurdle: BOB OLINGER - £2 WIN @ 25/1 with Paddy Power