One of my favourite days of the year, and I will be getting up before 6am to meet a good friend for breakfast before we both head-off for Cheltenham. It should be a cracker, though I am disappointed that DELTA WORK is not making the trip over.
I've not written a blog recently (due to the pressure of my day job) and this is being written mainly as a guide for myself tomorrow. I should also be able to look at the Skybet Chase at Doncaster as that is also a cracking meeting.
The ground is SOFT and it is likely to be on the testing side, especially at the end of the afternoon.
If anyone wants to say hello at the races, please do as I'm always up for a chat.
The opening race of the meeting is the 2m1f Triumph Hurdle Trial at 12:40pm. Unfortunately, only 6 horses go to post, and there is no way I could support a debut hurdler - even one trained by Nicky Henderson - to go off at "evens" for this. Rowland Ward looks a plodder to me, and may not enjoy a slog in the mud. Galahad Quest had a tough race 18-days ago and is Nick Williams only runner here but his form does not inspire. The one I like the look of is GEROLAMO CARDANO who won very easily on heavy ground at Hereford and looks a lot better than the OR115 rated runner-up. If he's OR130+ then he could take a lot of beating and the 6/1 available looks juicy.
The 2nd race on the card is one for the notebook - these are the best novice handicappers in training this season. A decent field of 12 are headed by the 5/2 fav Imperial Aura who was easily swept aside by PYM here in December, and he will need to improve on that to win this. When I looked at the form for this race earlier in the week, I was impressed with Champagne Court who is unbeaten in 2-chase races and he looks a lot better than his OR143 rating. The ground and trip will not be a problem and he was 4th in a handicap hurdle here at the Festival last March. Cloudy Glen needs to hold his jumping together and if he can he is on a decent rating. Ben Pauling provided last years winner, and he send Gowiththeflow who was unlucky to meet a well-handicapped one at Sandown LTO. He beat Paisley Park when they were both novice hurdlers, so he has a lot of potential and must be ahead of the handicapper. Mercy Mercy Me is enjoying chasing more than hurdles and this Paul Nicholls trained 8yo will win races but this race could be too high-class for him and his stamina will be stressed. The handicapper may have Simply The Betts on OR140, and On The Slopes does not look good enough. With 7 of the last 10 winners starting at odds of 8/1 or less, it pays to focus on the head of the market, and I'm drawn to Champagne Court and GOWITHTHEFLOW, however the latter was the better hurdler and carries 10lb less than his rival in this. Odds of 7/1 look good value.
The handicap chase over 2m4f at 1:50pm looks very competitive, even with only 10 runners. I'm not surprised that Highway One O One is the early fav at 5/1 as he was 2nd in the novice handicap over C&D on this day last year. If he repeats last years form, and there's no reason he wont unless the ground is a bit too soft for him, then he will go close. I think the 6yo My Way will find this race a bit tough and I've not been impressed with him in his recent races. My money was on Spiritofthegames in the novice handicap last year, and he was just beaten into 3rd by Highway 101. He is on 1lb worse terms than last year, but I think he's the better horse this season and so long as he's not coming from too far off the pace he could snatch it on the run-in. Warthog is now in the handicappers grip unless he can find another 5lb of improvement. Lalor could be the one, as his excellent performance LTO on his first attempt at a trip beyond 2m1f and I can see him being pushed harder this time, as his jumping looked very slick. All the others look out of it. For me, LALOR looks the one with the most potential to beat his handicap mark and he will be prominent throughout the race (alongside Warthog). Odds of 6/1 are not great though in this very competitive race.
The Cotswold Chase looks interesting, but would be a much better race if Delta Work had turned up.
Honest, I cannot have a penny on Santini at 7/4. For me he is yet to prove he is a 160+ chaser. Black Op has never looked like being a 3-mile chaser, so beating him at level weights is no recommendation for the novice Slate House. I do like Top Ville Ben and his win in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day looked decent, but most of the opposition have seen better days and Wetherby is his home track. Can he not just repeat, but better that performance here? De Rasher Counter is not up to this, and Mr Whitaker has to prove his stamina. That leaves BRISTOL DE MAI and come 2:40pm tomorrow we could all be wondering why this proven chaser was allowed to go off at 9/4 with the opposition having so many holes in it. Even if he just repeats his performance when 3rd in this race in 2018 he would go close, but remember he was 3rd in the Gold Cup here last March! Anything close to that level of form will see him win fairly easily.
I'm taking a look at the Doncaster card now, and in the Skybet Chase it could be worth considering Nicky Henderson's runners. Not OK Corral - unless Derek O'Connor can work a miracle on him - but BURBANK. Yes, he is a novice chaser and yes he went up 11lb after winning LTO to OR145, but he was 5th in the 2018 Coral Cup handicap hurdle at the Festival off OR143 and he is clearly a better chaser than a hurdler. Also Henderson does not come to Doncaster unless he means business: 21 wins from 76 runners in 5 seasons, and 30 of those that didn't win came either 2nd or 3rd. Odds of 9/1 look generous about this prominent racer who we know is in top form.
All the best and look out for me on TV - I will be wearing my flat cap!
Friday, 24 January 2020
Tuesday, 31 December 2019
The Cheltenham Gold Cup antepost market 31-December
It's been a few weeks since the last blog, and with not being able to donate enough time to make selections and write a decent weekly blog, I've decided to concentrate on preparing for the Cheltenham Festival in March.
There has been plenty going on in the past few days, and here is the latest betting:-
KEMBOY - 6/1 (available generally - I do not consider the odds of 7/1 offered by 888Sport)
AL BOUM PHOTO - 7/1 (Coral and Betfred)
CLAN DES OBEAUX - 8/1 (Hills and Paddy Power)
LOSTINTRANSLATION - 8/1 (available generally - I do not consider the 9/1 offered by Betway)
DELTA WORK - 10/1 (Betfred and Paddy Power)
SANTINI - 10/1 (BetVictor and Paddy Power)
PRESENTING PERCY - 14/1 (Boylesports)
NATIVE RIVER - 20/1 (Hills and Paddy Power)
They are the front-8 in the betting and I really cannot see anything else coming out of the woodwork.
KEMBOY and the 2019 Gold Cup winner AL BOUM PHOTO head the market, with Kemboy just ahead. While I appreciate that Al Boum Photo is worthy of his position in the betting, I cannot say the same about Kemboy.
Sure, Kemboy won the Savills Chase (G1) in Dec18 beating Monalee into 2nd, and he went on to win at Aintree and Punchestown but (in my opinion) he beat CLAN DES OBEAUX and Al Boum Photo when they were possibly over-the-top after being trained for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kemboy was also trained for that race but he fell at the 1st fence.
I rate his win in the Savills Chase as his best to date (165) whereas RPR rate his wins at Aintree and Punchestown superior to that effort. What you can take from his career to date is that he does improve for a run from a break, so he is sure to find improvement from his recent run on 28-Dec. I hope rather than expect he will be given another race before Cheltenham, as otherwise he will go into the Gold Cup too fresh. I'm also not sure he will stay the Gold Cup trip.
AL BOUM PHOTO easily won the Gold Cup last March, and he runs on Wednesday 1st Jan in a repeat of his preparation of last season. He will be only an 8yo in March 2020 and there's no reason he cannot repeat that effort. On the downside, I did not rate his win was in a particularly strong Gold Cup. He should win easily on 1st January and in proving his well-being his odds will almost certainly shorten to probably 9/2, so if you think he can win again in March you had best place a wager today.
CLAN DES OBEAUX easily repeated his win in the King George on Boxing Day, and he did not have to repeat his winning effort of 2018 to do so. Can he win in March? Probably not, as he's run in 4 chases beyond 3-mile and been beaten each time, which (to me) indicates he lacks the stamina to win a Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
LOSTINTRANSLATION is a tricky horse to fathom, and I'm prepared to overlook him pulling-up in the King George on Boxing Day as I do not think he enjoys going right-handed. In beating Topofthegame at Aintree over 3m1f last April he showed he was one of the very best novice staying chasers and probably would have won the RSA Chase at the last Festival. He is an out-and-out stayer and is probably the best value in the market at the moment.
DELTA WORK is a horse that needs a stamina test, as he's not the quickest and that lack of zip was exposed in last seasons RSA Chase when he went from cruising along and looking the most likely winner, to being caught flat-footed and left in a matter of strides. He was ridden more aggressively at Punchestown and was rewarded with a much better performance and one that suggested he could have won the RSA with a similar ride. As such I would expect him to push for the race early come March and make it a gruelling contest. Again, he looks value in the betting.
Personally, I do not think we will see SANTINI race again this season, as he was a shadow of himself in his race at Sandown earlier this season and we have not seen him since.
PRESENTING PERCY has - in my opinion - had his chance and that was last season.
NATIVE RIVER is still a top class chaser, but his limits were exposed at the Gold Cup last March and he will be a 10yo come March and the young guns will be too good for him.
The pair in the betting that I like are:-
Lostintranslation and Delta Work and at 10/1 it's DELTA WORK for me.
There has been plenty going on in the past few days, and here is the latest betting:-
KEMBOY - 6/1 (available generally - I do not consider the odds of 7/1 offered by 888Sport)
AL BOUM PHOTO - 7/1 (Coral and Betfred)
CLAN DES OBEAUX - 8/1 (Hills and Paddy Power)
LOSTINTRANSLATION - 8/1 (available generally - I do not consider the 9/1 offered by Betway)
DELTA WORK - 10/1 (Betfred and Paddy Power)
SANTINI - 10/1 (BetVictor and Paddy Power)
PRESENTING PERCY - 14/1 (Boylesports)
NATIVE RIVER - 20/1 (Hills and Paddy Power)
They are the front-8 in the betting and I really cannot see anything else coming out of the woodwork.
KEMBOY and the 2019 Gold Cup winner AL BOUM PHOTO head the market, with Kemboy just ahead. While I appreciate that Al Boum Photo is worthy of his position in the betting, I cannot say the same about Kemboy.
Sure, Kemboy won the Savills Chase (G1) in Dec18 beating Monalee into 2nd, and he went on to win at Aintree and Punchestown but (in my opinion) he beat CLAN DES OBEAUX and Al Boum Photo when they were possibly over-the-top after being trained for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kemboy was also trained for that race but he fell at the 1st fence.
I rate his win in the Savills Chase as his best to date (165) whereas RPR rate his wins at Aintree and Punchestown superior to that effort. What you can take from his career to date is that he does improve for a run from a break, so he is sure to find improvement from his recent run on 28-Dec. I hope rather than expect he will be given another race before Cheltenham, as otherwise he will go into the Gold Cup too fresh. I'm also not sure he will stay the Gold Cup trip.
AL BOUM PHOTO easily won the Gold Cup last March, and he runs on Wednesday 1st Jan in a repeat of his preparation of last season. He will be only an 8yo in March 2020 and there's no reason he cannot repeat that effort. On the downside, I did not rate his win was in a particularly strong Gold Cup. He should win easily on 1st January and in proving his well-being his odds will almost certainly shorten to probably 9/2, so if you think he can win again in March you had best place a wager today.
CLAN DES OBEAUX easily repeated his win in the King George on Boxing Day, and he did not have to repeat his winning effort of 2018 to do so. Can he win in March? Probably not, as he's run in 4 chases beyond 3-mile and been beaten each time, which (to me) indicates he lacks the stamina to win a Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
LOSTINTRANSLATION is a tricky horse to fathom, and I'm prepared to overlook him pulling-up in the King George on Boxing Day as I do not think he enjoys going right-handed. In beating Topofthegame at Aintree over 3m1f last April he showed he was one of the very best novice staying chasers and probably would have won the RSA Chase at the last Festival. He is an out-and-out stayer and is probably the best value in the market at the moment.
DELTA WORK is a horse that needs a stamina test, as he's not the quickest and that lack of zip was exposed in last seasons RSA Chase when he went from cruising along and looking the most likely winner, to being caught flat-footed and left in a matter of strides. He was ridden more aggressively at Punchestown and was rewarded with a much better performance and one that suggested he could have won the RSA with a similar ride. As such I would expect him to push for the race early come March and make it a gruelling contest. Again, he looks value in the betting.
Personally, I do not think we will see SANTINI race again this season, as he was a shadow of himself in his race at Sandown earlier this season and we have not seen him since.
PRESENTING PERCY has - in my opinion - had his chance and that was last season.
NATIVE RIVER is still a top class chaser, but his limits were exposed at the Gold Cup last March and he will be a 10yo come March and the young guns will be too good for him.
The pair in the betting that I like are:-
Lostintranslation and Delta Work and at 10/1 it's DELTA WORK for me.
Saturday, 7 December 2019
Tingle Creek showdown at Sandown
What a tremendous day of horseracing we have, with top-class meetings at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby.
The feature race of the day is the "Tingle Creek" over 2-miles at Sandown at 3pm. The favourite is DEFI DU SEUIL and on my ratings his best-ever performance was at Sandown as a novice, The manner in which he won at Aintree in November suggests he's improved a lot since then, but he didn't have to show it at Aintree. The Irish raider Un De Sceaux is not as good as he was, and I really cannot see him troubling the judge today. Politologue won this race in 2017, but he has not improved on that performance since, but he is very consistent. His stablemate Dolos was swept aside at Exeter by Janika, and that makes JANIKA a top-class prospect for this. Sceau Royal was beaten out of site in this race last year and maybe Sandown isn't his best track.
Looking at the form this morning, JANIKA is a stand-out wager for me at 9/1 with Bet365. I rated his performance at Cheltenham (on the same afternoon Defi Du Seuil won) the best of the day. We have to see if he has the speed for top-class 2-miles chases, but he certainly has the class.
At Aintree, I am swerving the Becher Chase and the Grade 2 "Many Clouds" Chase over 3m1f has only 4 runners but it looks a cracker. If NATIVE RIVER is anywhere near fit, then he will win this race, and he usually goes well off a break. But at odds-on he's not for me.
I managed to put my Tote 10-2-Follow entries in last week, but was knocked sideways when Buveur D'Air was beaten at Newcastle and injured in the process. He was one of my "core". Overall, I chose 12 horses for the list, with a core of 8, and the other 4 entered in 6 pairs (any 2 from 4).
My core of 8 is:-
Buveur D'Air
Paisley Park
Defi Du Seuil
Delta Work
Cyrname
Janika
Benie Des Dieux
Kemboy
And my other 4 are:-
Lostintranslation
Clan Des Obeaux
Scaeau Royal
Kalashnikov
My advice today is take the 9/1 offered about JANIKA he looks a very decent eachway chance at least, and I'm on for £5 win and £5 eachway.
The feature race of the day is the "Tingle Creek" over 2-miles at Sandown at 3pm. The favourite is DEFI DU SEUIL and on my ratings his best-ever performance was at Sandown as a novice, The manner in which he won at Aintree in November suggests he's improved a lot since then, but he didn't have to show it at Aintree. The Irish raider Un De Sceaux is not as good as he was, and I really cannot see him troubling the judge today. Politologue won this race in 2017, but he has not improved on that performance since, but he is very consistent. His stablemate Dolos was swept aside at Exeter by Janika, and that makes JANIKA a top-class prospect for this. Sceau Royal was beaten out of site in this race last year and maybe Sandown isn't his best track.
Looking at the form this morning, JANIKA is a stand-out wager for me at 9/1 with Bet365. I rated his performance at Cheltenham (on the same afternoon Defi Du Seuil won) the best of the day. We have to see if he has the speed for top-class 2-miles chases, but he certainly has the class.
At Aintree, I am swerving the Becher Chase and the Grade 2 "Many Clouds" Chase over 3m1f has only 4 runners but it looks a cracker. If NATIVE RIVER is anywhere near fit, then he will win this race, and he usually goes well off a break. But at odds-on he's not for me.
I managed to put my Tote 10-2-Follow entries in last week, but was knocked sideways when Buveur D'Air was beaten at Newcastle and injured in the process. He was one of my "core". Overall, I chose 12 horses for the list, with a core of 8, and the other 4 entered in 6 pairs (any 2 from 4).
My core of 8 is:-
Buveur D'Air
Paisley Park
Defi Du Seuil
Delta Work
Cyrname
Janika
Benie Des Dieux
Kemboy
And my other 4 are:-
Lostintranslation
Clan Des Obeaux
Scaeau Royal
Kalashnikov
My advice today is take the 9/1 offered about JANIKA he looks a very decent eachway chance at least, and I'm on for £5 win and £5 eachway.
Friday, 29 November 2019
Saturday 30th November & the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase
I expect most readers of this blog will be up and about early on Saturday morning, putting their entries in for the Tote Ten-to-follow. My thoughts and shortlist are on the blog entry below, so no need to go into it again here.
With advance going described as heavy at Newcastle, if it passes an 8am inspection, I'm loathe to spend too much time assessing the form of the racing there.
It's also likely to be heavy ground at Bangor, but at least they are expecting racing to go ahead there - no inspection planned. Only one race there is of interest, and that's the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 1:20pm with 8-runners declared. This looks a weak Class 3 chase and so (unusually) I'm interested in the 10yo ASK THE WEATHERMAN who may well be the oldest horse in the race, but he's proven over the trip and the ground, and he goes well fresh, so should not be too bothered with this being his first run since April. In December last year, he won a 2m7f hurdle on heavy ground at Exeter, so he does enjoy soft ground and a good trip.
However, most readers of this blog will not be interested in what's happening anywhere else other than at Newbury, and the race they will be focusing on is the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase run over 3m3f at 3pm. There are 24 runners, which means it will be a much tougher race than last year when only 12 ran. The ground at Newbury is good-to-soft so there will be no excuses and a decent pace is guaranteed.
The "Ladbroke" is a race I've had some good fortune in over the years and essentially you are looking for a young, improving chaser to win this. Last year was (in my opinion) an anomaly as only 12 ran, and the 10yo Sizing Tennessee (who has not raced since) took advantage to run the race of his life off a reasonable OR148 rating. Back in 2nd was Elegant Escape, who has improved since then but so has his rating. Yes he did win the Welsh National last December, but that was off OR151 and in this race he runs off OR160 which is too high. Dingo Dollar was 3rd last year off OR148 and I think the soft ground found him out, and it probably will do again.
Other than Sizing Tennessee last year, only one horse older than 8yo has won this race since 1998, and that was the mighty Denman. As such, I'm going to put a line through anything aged 9yo or older, and that's Beware The Bear, Yala Enki, Yorkhill, Robinsfirth, OK Corral, Two Taffs, West Approach, Joe Farrell, Royal Encore, and Shantou Village. I can see one or two of them running into a place - possibly West Approach, and OK Corral - but I cannot see one of them winning.
OK Corral is one of the favourites for this, and for the life of me I cannot fathom why as his form on the track just does not justify the support.
Mister Malarkey is a stout stayer, but his form isn't strong enough to win this race off OR149.
Willie Mullins can never be underestimated and his Cabaret Queen won the Munster National LTO but this looks a tough ask to me, and there's no value in the odds.
A rating of OR149 looks tough for De Rasher Counter too, as he couldn't win a Class 3 chase last January off OR139 at Chepstow (was outstayed).
Gordon Elliot sends the Galway Plate winner Borice (in 2nd that day was Black Corton), but this one has plenty of experience and was particularly well handicapped at Galway. running off OR146 will likely find him out.
The horse I've had my eye on all week is ON THE BLIND SIDE.
Nicky Henderson knows how to win this race, and what I like about this horse is that he was given the tough task of taking on Talkischeap at Kempton in January over 3-mile. He was receiving 6lb and Talkischeap is now rated 12lb higher on OR157. so ONTHEBLIND SIDE is possibly a 155+ horse in-waiting, but he's running off OR149.
I was at Ascot when he ran his seasonal debut, and he was given a very easy time of it, only getting going in the final half-mile when he made some rapid progress not losing any ground on the leader in the process. I think this race will be perfect for the horse, and I'm very happy that Nico De Boinville has the ride.
The remainder of the card looks extremely tough, so I'm happy with my only selection being...
Selection
Newbury 3:00pm ONTHEBLINDSIDE, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 11/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4,5 with Bet365), total = £15 staked
My quandary is whether to include ONTHEBLINDSIDE in my entry for the Tote Ten-to-Follow.
One racing tipster I have followed in the past and who gives good value for money is
The Mathematician
and this being "Black Friday" week, he is offering a special deal of
1) The first 10-days of his service available for just £1;
and
2) A discount of £100 an a quarterly membership.
The link to these deals is below:-
The Mathematician
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/blackfriday/default.asp
If you are interested, but do not want a long-term sign-up, he also offers a "Saturday only" service. I will be honest, and advise that I usually only subscribe to this service during the summer months.
With advance going described as heavy at Newcastle, if it passes an 8am inspection, I'm loathe to spend too much time assessing the form of the racing there.
It's also likely to be heavy ground at Bangor, but at least they are expecting racing to go ahead there - no inspection planned. Only one race there is of interest, and that's the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 1:20pm with 8-runners declared. This looks a weak Class 3 chase and so (unusually) I'm interested in the 10yo ASK THE WEATHERMAN who may well be the oldest horse in the race, but he's proven over the trip and the ground, and he goes well fresh, so should not be too bothered with this being his first run since April. In December last year, he won a 2m7f hurdle on heavy ground at Exeter, so he does enjoy soft ground and a good trip.
However, most readers of this blog will not be interested in what's happening anywhere else other than at Newbury, and the race they will be focusing on is the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase run over 3m3f at 3pm. There are 24 runners, which means it will be a much tougher race than last year when only 12 ran. The ground at Newbury is good-to-soft so there will be no excuses and a decent pace is guaranteed.
The "Ladbroke" is a race I've had some good fortune in over the years and essentially you are looking for a young, improving chaser to win this. Last year was (in my opinion) an anomaly as only 12 ran, and the 10yo Sizing Tennessee (who has not raced since) took advantage to run the race of his life off a reasonable OR148 rating. Back in 2nd was Elegant Escape, who has improved since then but so has his rating. Yes he did win the Welsh National last December, but that was off OR151 and in this race he runs off OR160 which is too high. Dingo Dollar was 3rd last year off OR148 and I think the soft ground found him out, and it probably will do again.
Other than Sizing Tennessee last year, only one horse older than 8yo has won this race since 1998, and that was the mighty Denman. As such, I'm going to put a line through anything aged 9yo or older, and that's Beware The Bear, Yala Enki, Yorkhill, Robinsfirth, OK Corral, Two Taffs, West Approach, Joe Farrell, Royal Encore, and Shantou Village. I can see one or two of them running into a place - possibly West Approach, and OK Corral - but I cannot see one of them winning.
OK Corral is one of the favourites for this, and for the life of me I cannot fathom why as his form on the track just does not justify the support.
Mister Malarkey is a stout stayer, but his form isn't strong enough to win this race off OR149.
Willie Mullins can never be underestimated and his Cabaret Queen won the Munster National LTO but this looks a tough ask to me, and there's no value in the odds.
A rating of OR149 looks tough for De Rasher Counter too, as he couldn't win a Class 3 chase last January off OR139 at Chepstow (was outstayed).
Gordon Elliot sends the Galway Plate winner Borice (in 2nd that day was Black Corton), but this one has plenty of experience and was particularly well handicapped at Galway. running off OR146 will likely find him out.
The horse I've had my eye on all week is ON THE BLIND SIDE.
Nicky Henderson knows how to win this race, and what I like about this horse is that he was given the tough task of taking on Talkischeap at Kempton in January over 3-mile. He was receiving 6lb and Talkischeap is now rated 12lb higher on OR157. so ONTHEBLIND SIDE is possibly a 155+ horse in-waiting, but he's running off OR149.
I was at Ascot when he ran his seasonal debut, and he was given a very easy time of it, only getting going in the final half-mile when he made some rapid progress not losing any ground on the leader in the process. I think this race will be perfect for the horse, and I'm very happy that Nico De Boinville has the ride.
The remainder of the card looks extremely tough, so I'm happy with my only selection being...
Selection
Newbury 3:00pm ONTHEBLINDSIDE, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 11/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4,5 with Bet365), total = £15 staked
My quandary is whether to include ONTHEBLINDSIDE in my entry for the Tote Ten-to-Follow.
One racing tipster I have followed in the past and who gives good value for money is
The Mathematician
and this being "Black Friday" week, he is offering a special deal of
1) The first 10-days of his service available for just £1;
and
2) A discount of £100 an a quarterly membership.
The link to these deals is below:-
The Mathematician
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/blackfriday/default.asp
If you are interested, but do not want a long-term sign-up, he also offers a "Saturday only" service. I will be honest, and advise that I usually only subscribe to this service during the summer months.
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