There are 6 meetings today and with York suffering due to the firm going and multiple withdrawals, I’ve been looking at the other two afternoon meetings as this evening’s meetings look tricky (especially Aintree).
Until the flat form settles down, I usually only “lay” runners to be unplaced. I read in “Winning Without Thinking” written by Nick Mordin, that gamblers have a good idea of how to rate the chances of a horse winning, but they are not as good estimating the chance of a horse being placed. The usual assessment is a quarter of the win odds; but I reckon if everything falls right for a horse to give it a winning chance (and it takes advantage) then it should win – but if things don’t fall right (and that is usually reflected in the win odds) then it loses, and usually loses badly. In other words, depending on the race format and circumstance, a 4/1 2nd-fav may not be “evens” to be placed but may really be 7/2 to be placed. Make sense? As such, I look to lay to be unplaced horses that are between 2.10 – 2.40 on the exchange “place-only” market in competitive races.
Such a race is the 2:55 at Newbury. Just 7 runners and the exchange market pays on 3 to be placed, but 5 of the 7 runners are at less than 2.20 in this market, with 3 at odds-on (less than 2.00). I’ll be place-laying POLLENATOR as this filly is not guaranteed to stay beyond a mile (certainly not at this level) and she appeared fortunate to win the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last September.
Later in the afternoon at 4:35 ARTIC COSMOS looks another to oppose in the place-only market. Yes, he won comfortably last time out just 24 days ago, but that was over 9f and the horse he beat into 2nd has only won a class 5 since. Given proven stayers in Activate and Essexbridge, Berling and Huff And Puff, ARTIC COSMOS does not look a 2.10-2.20 chance to be placed in the 1st-3 in this.