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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 23 July 2010

Going off with a bang!

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
No selections for the blog yesterday, but the 2nd-string came-up trumps with a win for WHIRLY DANCER mentioned on the blog as the only runner of the day for in-form trainer Henry Cecil (went into yesterday with 4 wins and 3 placed from 16 runners – 43.8% strikerate – in past 14-days) and it won at 5/1. The only other horse mentioned was OLD HUNDRED, the only runner of the day for in-form trainer James Fanshawe (went into yesterday with 4 wins and 2 placed from 11 runners – 54.5% – in past 14-days) and that was 2nd at 11/4.
We mentioned the strike rate of Adrian Nicholls in “sellers & claimers” (48 wins in 144 races - 33.33%), and he only had a single booked ride for yesterday; Amenable in the 7:55 at Doncaster – it won at 5/1.
Mark Johnston had 3 winners from 4 runners yesterday, making it 5 wins from 8 in the past 2-days; his stable is in red-hot form and every runner must be considered – he has 11 running for him today. Richard Hannon had 4 winners from 8 runners, making it 6 wins from his last 17 runners over the past 4-days. He’s got 14 declared for today!

Today’s Racing Selections
There are 5 meetings on the flat today (and a jumps meeting at Southwell) and it looks a great day for racing to start one of the season’s top weekends. This is probably my last blog for a week as I’m off to Cornwall with the family (I should be back on Monday 2nd August); I hope to sign-off with a winner but I cannot promise anything.
With so many meetings, there are not many in-form trainers with just a single runner but David Elsworth is one, with SNOQUALMIE STAR in the 5:40 at Newmarket. Half-sister Snoqualmie Girl is currently rated OR101, so “Star” running off OR71 suggests there’s plenty of latent ability, but today’s 10f trip is a first, so I would not take less than 3/1 about her. Also at Newmarket, in the 8:45 is Roger Charlton’s only runner today YABTREE. This one won over C&D on 18-Jun and if he repeats that form he will be right there at the finish, so odds of 7/1 look very generous.
At York and there is a ‘listed’ race at 7:30 and Suroor / Dettori combine for their only runner at tonights meeting (Dettori travelling up from Ascot in the afternoon). COPPERBEECH looks out of it on official ratings, but last time she met the fav Les Fazzani she finished in front of her and she meets her today on only 1lb worse terms. It’s hard to see COPPERBEECH winning, but I can’t see her being beaten by anything other than the fav and at 13/2 she represents value.
Sir Mark Prescott sends just 2 runners out today, both at Thirsk; a 2yo and the 3yo maiden FORK LIGHTNING for the 3:10. This one is a half-sister to Aussie Rules a Group 1 winner for Aiden O’Brien in France; and Approach who won a listed race for Sir Mark Prescott. This 7f race may be a bit short for FORK LIGHTNING but she should be on the scene at the finish. Personally, I fancy the chance of RAQUEEB in this race having his first run for Mrs Carr since leaving Sir Michael Stoute as his form bears scrutiny and he could be on a very good mark of OR79 as both those that beat him in recent runs have won again since and both gone up 9lb.

Selection:
Newmarket 8:45, YABTREE 1pt each-way @ 7/1 (with Stan James; ¼ odds a place & best-odds guaranteed)

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES

A French import for the start of the 2009-10 season. Never raced beyond 2m 5f in France, but he was tried over 3-mile on his debut at Exeter on 03-Nov in which he ran well, and then came out quickly the following week at Cheltenham over 3m 1f. He ran travelled very strongly until his stamina gave-up about half a mile out at the 3-last fence where he made a bad error (he fell at the next fence). Even so, he showed he was much better than his OR112 rating as the winner Razor Royale ran 2nd in the Boylesports next time and later won the Grade 3 Racing Post Chase and is now 17lb higher on OR146. QHILIMAR was then dropped in trip to 2m 3f at Chepstow where he raced on heavy going. Although he had form in France on heavy going, I don’t think he liked it as he was under hard driving to keep going for much of the race before staying-on at after the final fence. A return to Cheltenham a week later, and better going (soft) plus up in trip to 2m 5f saw an upturn in form. Unfortunately, he met the very progressive Sound Stage but, even so, ran a good race. He does tend to switch-off mid-race and require heavy driving to get going again, but then stays on very well. He did it in both these races and I expect his “in-running” price took a walk when the whip was shown. Sound Stage is now 23lb higher on OR128. Given a 7-week break, he returned for a 2m 6f chase on soft (Class 3) and looked a transformed horse. He never needed to be shown the whip, cruised into contention, and stayed on strongest of all, the result was never in doubt. Another 2-month break followed, and a return to Newbury for a class 2 chase over 3m 2½f, but this was too far for the 6yo. His raw ability kept him in contention over the final 5 fences, but he was a spent force at the 2nd-last. For me, his limit is 3m 1f. His final run over the National fences at Aintree can be ignored as he didn’t enjoy the experience.
He resumes the new season on OR126, and he should end it on OR135+ at the very least, more likely OR140+. So long as he’s not run at trips shorter than 2m 6f or on heavy going, he should pay his way.

Already on the list:
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON

See you all back here on Monday 2nd August.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

4 comments:

  1. SNOQUALMIE STAR won @ 4/1 (touched 9/2) so that's one for the 2nd-string. FORK LIGHTNING was 2nd @ 14/1 btn just a head!

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  2. YABTREE only lost 3rd place in the last 50 yards - typical!

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  3. Nice result with Snoqualmie though Ian! Well done.

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  4. By the way Ian, would you mind adding my blog to your roll?
    http://kejiskeen.wordpress.com/
    Many thanks, Rich.

    ReplyDelete