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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 13 July 2010
Striking Spirit for the Stewards Cup?
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s racing
There were no selections given yesterday. Even so, there were some interesting pointers. At Windsor, Kieren Fallon had one ride for David Elsworth, Hidden Fire. Going into yesterday, Fallon had won on 2 of the 3 rides he had for Elsworth at Windsor in the past 5 years. Hidden Fire won at 11/2, making it 3 wins from 4 rides. Statistics eh! Some cannot be manipulated by politicians. Having checked the Timeform stats page (which is free), those 3 wins have been the last 3 rides Fallon has had for Elsworth at Windsor, and each race was over the same trip; a mile and 67 yards. Make a note at the next meeting at Windsor of what Fallon rides and for whom. Talking of form and statistics, there is plenty of free information available on the “net” and I use sportinglife.com; attheraces.com and racinguk.com. There are other sites that provide free video form from time-to-time as well. Does anyone else have any recommendations?
At the other end of the jockey scale, finding a “claimer” who is good value for their claim is a valuable exercise, and we may have one in Adam Beschizza. He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb. Gay Kelleway has him booked for a couple of rides on Wednesday – take note.
It’s not long now till “Glorious Goodwood” and the Stewards Cup over 6-furlongs is a spectacular sprint handicap. Palace Moon, who went so close at the July Meeting, was previously 3rd to Laddies Poker Two in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. That form is now looking top-notch, especially as Genki in 6th that day has since won a Class 2. Both are entered for the Stewards Cup – and for the Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock in September. They are both 8/1 for the Stewards Cup, but a horse that beat them fair’n’square at Royal Ascot – STRIKING SPIRIT – is at 16/1. For him, 6-furlongs on good-to-firm is what he loves. He ran in the Stewards Cup last year when 8th to Genki, but that was on soft going, and he is 4lb better-off on that run and has shown he has the beating of Genki (who has a further 3lb penalty for that Class 2 win) based on Wokingham form. At this stage, so long as the good weather continues, to me he looks the one they have to beat and 16/1 looks good value. He could be worth a small each-way antepost wager, pending knowledge of the draw prior to the race.
Today’s Racing Selections
There is very ordinary fare on offer today, so there will be no selection.
However, those in need of a punt should look to GINGER JACK at Musselburgh in the 7:50 tonight. Mark Johnston has found what looks to be an easy class 3 for him. The odds will not be lucrative tho’ and I can see this one starting slightly odds-on, perhaps 5/6; as such it may be best to take the current offer of 6/4. If Billy Dane can recover his form of last summer he would give GINGER JACK a lot to think about but his form has gone completely, with Saturday’s run behind Capponi being awful. In-form trainer Jeremy Noseda sends just GOLD GLEAM to Yarmouth for the 8:00 tonight, but I am not happy making selections in class 5 races over 5-furlongs.
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