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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Good weekend for blog 'old-timers'
Review of recent racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of recent racing
After a long weekend in Cornwall visiting my 8-year-old son for his birthday, I return refreshed and on the lookout for some new opportunities. I’ve been thinking about refreshing the blog and how it’s presented, mainly to keep both your interest up (that is you, the readers), and mine. So you may notice a few changes in format and content over the next few days before the blog settles into the jumps season.
The big success of my wagering during the last jumps season (2009-10) was the use of a horse-alert system. The alert system that I used was that provided by www.easyodds.com mainly because it’s free and I have been able to enter the name and details of nearly 200 horses at any particular time. The only downside is that you do need a fairly strong internet connection speed as the link to the database can be broken easily. I review the racing results daily after racing and if I see a performance that I consider to be of particular merit (and it is not always a winning performance) then I make a note. When the “Weekender” is published on a Wednesday, I do a complete review of the week’s racing results and “fine-tune” my notes; adding new names to the horse alert list and deleting some.
During the winter months, my wagering will be revolving around this list of horses and the occasions when they race on going and trips that suit and at tracks where they are most likely to meet with success. Those that I consider worthy of a wager will be posted on the blog.
Over the weekend, while I was away, the first of my “Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List” ran, and that was ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES who, by coincidence, was the first horse named on my list. Running at Plumpton on Sunday (19th) over 3m2f on good-to-firm going, I’m not sure what his trainer was thinking of. Altho’ he has won on similar going, it was a very weak hurdle race and even in that he required reminders mid-race suggesting he was not enjoying the experience. At least we know he’s race-fit , and easier going and a trip of 3-mile or slightly less should bring about a uplift in form. Local trainer George Moore sent 4 to the meeting at Plumpton and was rewarded with 2 winners, including a promising run from the 4yo hurdler HERSCHEL who has now won 3 of his 4 races, and this half-brother to Colorado Rapid (OR96) finally looks to have grown into his frame and could be very decent in this sphere.
At Uttoxeter on Sunday, trainer Alan King sent out his first jumps runner since July in POUVOIR, and it won at 7/2 very easily and looking very fit and up for this. If this is an example of how he has his ‘jumpers’ then he could be in for an exciting and profitable autumn campaign.
Over the weekend there was also a win at good odds (12/1) from an old favourite of this blog DOCOFTHEBAY over a trip of 7f & 50 yards. He was caught on the line LTO having been clear a furlong out and I didn’t think he’d get a better chance than that, but he’s now won 3 of his 5 races over trips less than a mile. Considering he’s run 38 times in total and won only 2 from 33 at a mile or more (both those wins were over a mile) it looks like his trainer has now found his best trip!
Previous blog selection in ARIZONA JOHN also came home a winner @ 15/2. As I wrote on 1st Sept after his last race “ran well considering he wants going a little quicker than this; he won twice this time last year and off today’s mark (OR81) he can win again if racing on quicker going”. He got the quicker going (good-to-firm) and he did race off the same mark of OR81; it was a no-brainer!
There was also a good win for CALATRAVA CAPE (blog selection on 12th Aug), who returned to 12f on Saturday (didn’t stay 14f at Haydock) to win at 3/1.
Today’s Racing Selections
There are two flat (turf) meetings at Beverley and Folkestone, and a jumps meeting at Stratford. I am going to give both of the flat meetings a wide-berth as they look full of potential pitfalls.
The meeting at Stratford looks much more inviting, and the 3m4f class 3 handicap chase is a race that could fall to the promising JOB ONE. He should stay this extreme trip and (hopefully) the pace will be more sedate which will give him more time at his fences. As such, we should see an improved jumping display from him and he won’t be left struggling. I don’t think Templer and Chorizo will stay this trip, and Cold Mountain has gone up a lot in the weights and 11:12 here may be too much for him. JOB ONE is 7/1 (with Hills) and that looks fair value in this race.
Stratford 3:40 JOB ONE, 1pt win @ 7/1 (Hills)
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