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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 1 September 2010
Not again! 2nd-string tip UNEX EL GRECO wins @ 12/1
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
“…and another thing”
Review of yesterday’s racing
The 2nd-string selection hit the back of the net (again, damn & blast!) when UNEX EL GRECO won @ 12/1. This was an impressive debut from the 2yo. Dropped out the back and brought around the field (drawn 4 of 15), he easily picked-up the leaders mid-race and, under a hands-n-heels ride, put this race to bed very quickly. He looks like he’s going places. Gosden sent out 4 runners yesterday, and 3 won. He’s had a great bank holiday weekend; from his 10 runners over the past 4-days he’s had 6 winners!
The other 2nd-string selection ARIZONA JOHN also ran well considering he wants going a little quicker than this; he won twice this time last year and off today’s mark (OR81) he can win again if racing on quicker going. Why the fav for this race – Be Invincible – went off at 6/4 having been the subject of a major market move (from 11/4 in the morning) was beyond me. Had I known (or even suspected) it would start at such short odds then it would certainly have been a “lay” recommendation. If you refer to yesterday’s blog, I rated it a 4/1 chance, mainly as (like many in the field) it wanted faster going. Barry Hills runners have gone off the boil recently. The winner Ailsa Craig, had won on going with “cut” on 14-June and relished today’s conditions even tho’ she was unproven at this trip. It may also have been a factor that upped in grade to a class 3 handicap, she was able to carry a lighter weight for the rating – she carried 8st 10lb (including the 3lb claim of her jockey) whereas LTO she carried 10st. She’s never run well carrying more than 9st 3lb. It could be a factor, tho’ she is on the upgrade and has the potential to improve as she’s unexposed over 10f.
But the story of the day has to be David O’Meara’s hat-trick at Ripon. In little over 10 weeks since sending out his first runner on 12th June (having taken over the license of James Hetherton), he’s had 16 winners from just 82 runners – that’s a 20% strike-rate. Most of those winner have been when Silvestre De Sousa has been in the saddle (13 wins from 41 rides, that’s 32% SR). Who knows what the winter will bring for ex-jump jockey O’Meara as he has over 15 horses in his stable in preparation for the coming winter months over the sticks.
Today’s Racing Selections
You cannot ignore Mark Johnston when he sends runners to Brighton, but the only one I like the look of is his 2yo Raucous Behaviour. However, he’s making his debut today and it’s more likely he’ll come on for the run as he’s a half-brother to “Lincoln” winner Expresso Star who never ran as a 2yo.
The Ian Carnaby sponsored fillies handicap at Brighton is well-contested. The one that catches my eye in this is the only runner of Willie Haggas, DHAN DHANA. If you ignore he last run when she ran wide at the bend and seemed to lose interest, then she has a chance. She’s drawn 2 and will hopefully be “in-the-van” most of the way. There’s likely to be some pace on as there are 3 or 4 who like to make the running, but I’m never happy looking for one coming thru’ the pack at Brighton (which is the tactic of the fav Azaday) and this race will likely go to the one that stays the trip best and DHAN DHANA is bred to stay 12f.
I found the winner of the class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 3f last year (Silver Adonis), but this year’s race looks more tricky as most seem not to want to win! Methinks the fav Courella was lucky to win LTO, and Indiana Gold looks vulnerable beyond 17f, ditto One Of The Boys. This is the debut chase for Frosted Grape and Civil Servant; I’m The Decider seems to have lost the plot and Intac looks unreliable. So, by elimination, that leaves TYUP POMPEY who won here over 2-mile on 29-April and can stay 3-mile too; add that he’s in the form of his life and he looks value at 14/1. I realise he was well beaten in this race last year off OR110 (he’s on OR114 today) but that was on faster going than he likes and he looks a good bet today given there are some many question-marks over the others.
Hereford 4:40 TYUP POMPEY, ½pt e/w @ 14/1 (with Victor Chandler)
“…and another thing”
There is a lot of biased press and media attention – in my opinion – aimed at the Pakistani cricket team and this “no-ball” betting scandal. Was there as much critical attention given when Premiership footballers were kicking the ball into touch, seconds after kick-off, so that they could cash-in on the “time of 1st throw-in” markets? When we have bookmakers making markets on how many times a certain footballer spits on camera during a match, then there will always be scope for “side-bets” on events during a sporting event that – effectively – have no real impact on the end result of the match.
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