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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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This blog is based on finding winners - if you want to lose your money then read another blog.
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 2 September 2010

Two out of three ain't bad...

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
“…and another thing”

Review of yesterday’s racing
Great results for the blog yesterday from the 2nd-string selections; with RAUCOUS BEHAVIOUR and DHAN DHANA winning at Brighton at odds of 6/1 and 7/1 respectively.
You would not have given RAUCOUS BEHAVIOUR much chance of even being placed in the 1st-3 with a furlong to go, but he found his balance and picked-up really well. He looks the type to improve a lot on this display. The odds-on fav Auden looked very green despite it being his 2nd run.
And, as I suspected, trying to come from last-to-first at Brighton was too much for the OR63 rated Azaday when he failed to peg-back DHAN DHANA who was staying-on strong in the final furlong. That’s the 4th time in a row that Azaday has been beaten when starting as the fav – when will punters take note?
The main selection of the blog, TYUP POMPEY, was beaten by the going which had turned good-to-firm in places by the off and it was too quick for him. He was beaten from 5-out, but until then had jumped well. A step-up in trip and some give in the going should see him in a better light.
Given the number of “2nd-string” selections named on this blog over the past few months that have won at decent odds, perhaps I should just advise a ½pt eachway wager on every horse named?

Today’s Racing Selections
Some interesting racing this afternoon.
At Epsom, the 4:35 has Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner today Baralaka. You can never underestimate Prescott’s horses, but that will be reflected in the odds and he’s likely to start at <2/1. As such, there could be value in opposing, and with so little pace in the race SHY, drawn 3 and sent a long way here by Bruce Millman (4 wins from 14 runners in 5 years) looks like getting an easy lead and she might prove hard to catch. She was unable to lead at Salisbury LTO, and quickly threw-in the towel but she looks mighty value at 16/1 for this as leaders prove hard to reel in at Epsom. Salisbury looks a tremendous meeting for the spectator, but a tricky card to fathom for the punter! I will give this card a miss, but will certainly watch with interest. At Redcar, the 3:40 has two up from Newmarket trainers Suroor and Haggas and they look likely to dominate the betting, but they have a lot to prove and if you take them out then there not much depth to the race. Fishforcompliments barely gets 7f, so a mile looks beyond him; Shadowtime is up another 6lb for its LTO win, but is not the same horse away from Beverley. I like REEL BUDDY STAR who seems to relish being able to dominate small fields. In races with 10 or fewer runners, he’s 5 wins from 16, and 11+ runners he’s 0 wins from 14 races. He was 3rd in this race last year (12 runners) and he looks the value @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes). Selections: Epsom 4:35 SHY, ½pt e/w @ 16/1 (various) Redcar 3:40 REEL BUDDY STAR, ½pt e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) “…and another thing”
The big story of the afternoon was the exceptional gamble on AM I BLUE who opened on-course at 15/2 before starting at 5/1 – but had been 25/1 before 10:30am when the gamble started. The horse won in a canter, having turned the race into a procession winning by nearly 20-lengths. Now, I have no problem with horses returning to form or improving, but just 15-days ago the horse finished tailed-off, last of 12, at odds of 40/1. Before that, again 15-days earlier, the horse was tailed-off again as the last of 10 finishers, at odds of 28/1. So, the horse went into its last race in what could be described as a “race-fit” condition. If we delve into the formbook, on 30-Nov-09, the horse ran 2nd for Tim Vaughan (with Richard Johnson riding) as the fav in a maiden hurdle and achieved an RPR91 rating. Behind him that day in 3rd (and receiving 3lb) was Diktalina who went on to win a couple and is now rated OR120; so it can be argued that AM I BLUE is a horse with some talent, if that talent can be conjured up. Yesterday, Richard Johnson was brought-in by connections as a late jockey change but by that time the gamble was already well under way. It was the first ever winner for trainer Mrs Thomas and so I suppose if she can transform a horse in her care in such dramatic fashion (and clearly, somebody connected with the stable knew the horse had a better than anticipated chance of winning) then she needs to be watched. My immediate reaction was to call for professional stewards to investigate the situation, not because the horse won, but because the horse was so comprehensively beaten just 15-days ago when it was “apparently” race-fit. The trainer’s explanation that the horse had received treatment for a “bad-back” cannot explain such a transformation as, presumably, the “bad-back” would have prevented it from achieving full fitness on the gallops – and you cannot get a horse fit to race in a few days.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

5 comments:

  1. Blogger format is playing-up.
    Selections are:
    Epsom 4:35 SHY, ½pt e/w @ 16/1
    Redcar 3:40 REEL BUDDY STAR, ½pt e/w @ 7/1

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  2. I've linked you Wayward
    from Bruce Millman ;-)

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  3. Yeah, yeah - got the name wrong! It's Rod Millman (should have known as I follow James Millman on twitter).

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  4. Bit of a market move on REEL BUDDY STAR meant it started @ 7/2, but unfortunately it met one better and was 2nd. Even so, a tiny profit if you took the 7/1 earlier. As for SHY, she came in 5th.

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