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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 20 November 2010
Big day for the big guns
The blog selection yesterday – LE BURF – never looked like being involved in the finish, and didn’t look fit enough to race for that matter. Race winner, QUINZ looked a bit special and probably should be noted next time he runs.
That makes blog selections for the month as follows:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit
11th November: MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win, WON @ 9/2 – 4.50pts profit
11th November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, WON @ 7/2 – 3.50pts profit
13th November: MAD MAX, 1pt eachway, 4th @ 9/1 – 1.25pts profit
13th November: FINGERONTHEPULSE, ½pt eachway, unplaced @ 22/1 – 1pt lost
16th November: PLEIN POUVIOR, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 = 1pt lost
19th November: LE BURF, ½pt win, 3rd @ 6/1 – 0.50pts lost
November total = 3.00pts profit
I’ve also noted the following winners this week in the narrative which - if you were a bit more speculative - you may have been on; I’m A Legend @ 7/2; FLEMISH INVADER @ 5/2; and GHIZAO @ 13/2.
There are three jump meetings today at Haydock, Ascot, Huntingdon.
The feature race of the day is the Betfair Chase, and Imperial Commander should win this race easily, but is priced-up to do so at odds of 10/11, in fact I reckon he should be 2/5, so he looks a near “banker”.
The race at Haydock that I am most interested in the 3-mile h’cap chase at 2:20 as it sees the return of PALYPSO DE CREEK from my Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List. I reckon he is on a cracking mark of OR136 as he was 2nd here at Haydock to Our Vic in the Peter Marsh Chase, and with Charlie Longsdon’s stable in good form, he looks a good bet. Currently available at 5/1 (Ladbrokes).
At Ascot, there is a very strong meeting.
In the Amlin Chase at 2:05, I would oppose odds-on Master Minded as he has not looked the type to stay much further than 17f before and this longer trip, and the fact that the horse has “mental” problems, suggests he’s a no-bet. ALBERTAS RUN won this last season and with wins in the Ryanair and Melling Chase in the Spring, proved that win was no fluke. He has been a model of consistency at this sort of trip and on similar or better going, and he may take all the beating. Only 8 go to post for the Ascot Hurdle at 2:35, and it is hard not to see ZAYNAR winning this. He won it last year and there’s no reason he won’t win again. It will be a big ask for the 4yo Silviniaco Conti who gets only 4lb from Zaynar, and I expect the horse to struggle at this level (tho’ he will improve for the experience) and expect Karabak to follow ZAYNAR home. There will be a 3rd-place spot to fill, and that could go to ASHKAZAR who was travelling very well LTO till finding nothing after the 2nd-last flight in the Elite hurdle and that run should have primed him for this race. The 3:10 2m1f h’cap looks a cracker of a race. If it were 2m4f I would not hesitate to nominate one from my alert list PICKAMUS but this trip may be a little short for him, and it throws the edge to David Pipe’s CONSIGLIERE who is a 2m1f specialist. For him, 2-mile is too short, and anything beyond is too far – he needs it just right. Even so, he needed a race last season, and Pipe’s horse’s look like they’ve all needed a run lately, so its PICKMUS for me.
I am going for a win double today as I reckon both the big races will be won by the fav, and their odds are excellent considering the formbook.
Ascot 2:35 ZAYNAR @ 6/4 and
Haydock 3:25 IMPERIAL COMMANDER @ 10/11
(both with Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
1pt win double
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