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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 15 November 2010
Early Festival ante-post advice
Another tremendous day’s racing at Cheltenham yesterday, with the highlight being MENORAH winning the Greatwood H’cap Hurdle with top-weight of 11st 12lb. When any horse carries over 11st to victory in this race it pays to take note – recent winners of the race carrying 11st-plus include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, and Sizing Europe. This was a sterling performance from MENORAH, who again defied his doubters (me included). He has now put up 3 excellent performances; the 1st when winning the novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day in a time faster than the grade 1 Christmas hurdle later on the card; the 2nd when winning the Supreme Novices at the Festival; and now winning the Greatwood with top-weight. This horse is no fluke.
Somewhere in the West Country is a horse by the name of Bobby Ewing, who beat Menorah by 10 lengths last December over 20f, and hasn’t run again since.
Earlier on the card, the 2-mile novice chase was won by Paul Nicholls GHIZAO @ 13/2. This was the 5th time in the last 9 years that Nicholls has sent out the winner of this race. On that basis, I told readers not to underestimate its chances – and I was spot on! Not so for the next race when I expected Forpadydeplasterer to win convincingly as he held a 12lb advantage on official ratings. I did not expect Nick Williams to produce GAUVAIN from a 576-day break to win this. A brilliant training performance and the horse must now be on the shortlist for the Champion Chase next March. William Hills are 25/1 for the Champion Chase and there’s not much ahead of him in the betting for that for GAUVAIN to be afraid of. If you’re in the market for antepost bets, I’d have a nibble at those odds; perhaps ½pt eachway.
Typical Monday fare with a meeting at my local track at Plumpton and another at Leicester.
I cannot get excited about anything at Leicester, although the novice chase over 2-mile at 2:20 was won a couple of years ago by Kalahari King.
Plumpton looks no better to be fair.
The 2m1f h’cap chase at 2:30 looks the best betting medium on offer. I lost a fair amount last season following Amble Forge after a promising early run when 2nd to Green Belt Elite at Chepstow. He ran up to that level again at Warwick when he really should have won – but between those 2 races, he ran at Plumpton and what a stinker that was! As such, I cannot have him. I never like supporting horses on their chase debut, so can’t have Mister Stickler. For me it’s between Abey M’boy and Owner Occupier who have both won their only chase start to date. The others will need the run, or want further than this 17f trip. Current odds of 9/1 (with Sportingodds, 5th odds a place 1-2-3) look fair; but it’s a trappy race and on the balance of things, I’m passing it over.
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