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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 18 November 2010
FLEMISH INVADER makes it 11 from 34 for NTD at Warwick
I didn’t make a firm blog selection yesterday, but the narrative led readers to a nice winner in FLEMISH INVADER who won @ 5/2 by 8-lengths.
That makes Twiston-Davies stats at Warwick 11 winners from 34 runners in chase races. There were question-marks over most in the race, so perhaps I was being a little harsh suggesting he was only worth a small each-way wager. He went into the race on the back of a good recent run demonstrating he was fit and running off a OR from which he was capable of winning, and yesterday’s race was the weakest he’d run in for some time. He was supported in the market all morning and connections clearly thought he had a good chance. Even so, the horse is a quirky character and rider Paddy Brennan deserves praise for this winner.
The other horse mentioned on the blog – Bygones Of Brid – jumped well enough and contested the lead to the 2nd-last after which he was quickly brought to a halt and pulled-up. Fairly odd for a 4/7 Fav, and trainer Karen McLintock had no real explanation after the race. He’s entered for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on 27-Nov (holds no realistic chance in that) and it may be that his future is still undecided, and a return to hurdling may be on the cards.
There are three jump meetings today at Hereford, Market Rasen and Wincanton.
There’s nothing much of interest at Hereford, and at Wincanton only I’M A LEGEND takes my eye, but he’s racing off a career-high rating of OR115, and much will depend on whether the 8yo still has improvement in him to make the hat-trick today.
I reckon YOUNGSTOWN will win his race at Market Rasen (the 2:10). He looked capable of running at a higher level last season when the going was soft or worse and so the Good-to-Firm going was against him LTO. With the benefit of that run and and more suitable going today, he will prove hard to beat.
However, I do not like having wagers in races with less than 6 runners as those sort of races can get too tactical and there can be surprise results. Even so, current odds of 15/8 look more than fair, and if you can get longer odds then I’d take them.
That’s it for today. I’ve a busy day planned with several meetings and have to get on.
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