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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 11 November 2010
It can only happen in racing
We had yet another 2nd with the blog selection yesterday, when BUFFALO BOB was unable to go with the eventual winner (Summery Justice @ 16/1) after the last fence. Hopefully, you took the 13/2 with Victor Chandler as that gave us a 0.15pt profit, as the SP for BUFFALO BOB was just 7/2.
That means the blog is now on minus 3.75pts for November.
To surmise, the November selections have been:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit
With two wins from just three chases, SUMMERY JUSTICE is one to take note of for the next few runs; and perhaps it is a sign of a return to form for Venetia Williams (just 2 wins from 33 runners since 1st October).
Earlier on the card, WYMOTT won his debut novice chase very comfortably, but the time was nothing special and – for me – the jury is still out on Festival chances.
At Huntingdon, both Victory Surge and MEDERMIT were beaten. MEDERMIT did not finish his novice chase having refused to jump the 6th fence when his jockey reported the horse was distracted by an individual stood close to the fence. It can only happen in racing!
There are two jump meetings today, at Ludlow and Taunton.
There is a good class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow at 2:00 to get stuck into, over 3-mile. Holmwood Legend did not stay 3-mile as a hurdler and there’s no reason therefore that he will as a chaser at this level. Key Cutter jumped well enough here on his chase debut last month, but this looks a tough assignment for him. For me, it has to be MIDNIGHT HAZE who ran 3 cracking races last season (I don’t count his runs in May’09 before the summer break – I’m “old school”), winning two and coming 2nd to Far More Serious. That defeat was no disgrace, as MIDNIGHT HAZE was trying to give FMS 2lb, as FMS was running-off OR104. Now, FMS is rated OR131 and that suggests that MIDNIGHT HAZE on OR120 today is well ahead of the handicapper. Ludlow being a right-handed track means that several here may find the track difficult to handle, but the selection has won going RH at Kempton and Wincanton. We’ve just missed 5/1, so the odds of 9/2 generally should be taken.
At Taunton, previous blog selection (now a 2-time loser) JUSTABOUT goes again in the 2:40. It’s over a trip just under 3-mile (so that could be stretching his stamina) but the going is “good”. He’s dropped 3lb to OR93 and this is a very weak race, so he could just be a tad better than anything here, and he was going well on 7th Oct till hitting the 2nd-last, and the going was far too soft for him LTO. At odds of 7/2 for this he looks value.
Ludlow 2:00 MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win @ 9/2 (available generally)
Taunton 2:40 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 7/2 (available generally)
Final note: I am looking forward to the chase debut of LAKE LEGEND this afternoon for trainer Alan King – this could be a decent novice chaser.
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