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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Day 1 at York's Ebor meeting

This is the 326th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Tuesday) and there are none again today on what looks a fairly ordinary opening day to the York Ebor meeting.

I was going to put up TWICE OVER for the Juddmonte International at 3:40pm today for a number of reasons – but the fact that jockey Tom Queally has passed him over for Midday has had too big an effect on me. That said, I reckon TWICE OVER will appreciate today's going better than Midday and the trip is perfect too. There is a possibility that the pace may not be strong enough but once he gets going he will take a lot of beating and 5/1 (Vic Chandler) represents value in my mind in what should be a tactical affair. No matter how much I look at the form, I cannot see the AP O'Brien runner Await The Dawn as an odds-on chance.

My odds-line (100% book) has them at :-
Await The Dawn @ 7/4
Midday @ 9/4
Twice Over @ 9/4
And the other 2 runners at 100/1

The Great Voltigeur at 3:05pm should go to Seville, who on known form is head & shoulders better than these and, as such, is much more worthy of being 'odds-on' than his stable companion Await The Dawn. If you consider his odds of 6/4 are more to do with the unknown potential of 2nd-fav Sea Moon – who really has to find a fair bit of improvement on what he's shown to-date to win this – then I would expect the big players to descend on this price and for it to shorten considerably today. As for Sea Moon, he looks a "place-lay" as he is by no means certain to be able to compete at this level. Take him out of the race and the next-best is Namibian who was never likely to be considered for this race, even after his Royal Ascot win, until the likes of Nathaniel and Masked Marvel sought alternative targets. He looks the most likely to follow Seville home today.

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