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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 7 August 2011
The search for the elusive "value"
My search for that elusive jewel, "value", took me to Haydock yesterday where racegoers had an 8-race card. As I wrote here, in the final race on the card I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looked to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, I didn't as (by the time I wrote my blog page) the 11/2 on offer in the morning had gone and at the 7/2 on offer then I did not consider him a "value" wager. Of course, he went on to win in convincing style at 100/30, thereby showing me up. Horses love making fools of you.
My selection of the day - posted on Betting League - was ZUIDER ZEE. Now, I really do think this horse is well-handicapped but he suffers from being one-paced. He flatters to deceive in his racing, staying-on very well but always finding 1 or 2 too good for him, but giving the impression there is more in the locker. I "tweeted" afterwards that he'd had my last penny (as a flat horse) on him now and that he'd probably do better sent hurdling - and that comment was reflected in the RP race analysis!
I did have another wager in the evening at Ayr when, after a couple of non-runners, MUSIC FESTIVAL looked to have an outstanding chance in the 6:40. He was sent-off at 11/4 (tho' I was on at 3/1+ on Betfair) and never looked like winning as he trailed the eventual winner Benny The Bear all-the-way. Despite not getting within 3-lengths of the winner, and his jockey resorting to the whip 2-furlongs out, he actually traded at 1.17 in-running on Betfair! How the hell that happened is beyond me.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.