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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Boxing Day lookahead

The 410th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I followed a couple I wrote about with personal wagers; unfortunately without success.

ALPHA WAY had won his last couple of starts as jockey Felix De Giles had been able to get the horse settled, yesterday tho' he had no such luck and ALPHA WAY ran away with him in the early stages burning-up his energy which was soon spent and he eventually pulled-up.  That fast early pace meant the race fell apart for most and another I was interested in, Nosecond Chance, also pulled-up.

My 2nd personal wager was on TIME FOR SPRING who I thought had a great chance when the morning fav Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner. TIME FOR SPRING was brought to challenge the leader at the last fence but failed to take the race by just half-a-length. This was disappointing, as he could well have blown what was a winning rating as he'll probably go up at few pound for this run as LTO winner Battlecry was beaten 12-lengths into 3rd. There is a possibility he may run again before a re-rating (see below).

As luck would have it, the only other race I looked at was the extended 3-mile chase at Ffos Las  which saw KAYBEEW from my alert list running. His odds of 5/2 did not represent value and, combined with a significant move for Horsham Lad (from 5/2 in to 15/8) and the David Pipe 4yo Take Over Sivola (from 8/1 in to 4/1), that meant Mohayer - a LTO chase winner over 2m6f - drifted to 10/1 from 5/1.  

This is the main reason why I provide a narrative behind my selections on the blog. At respective odds in the morning of 5/2, 5/2 and 5/1; Kaybeew, Horsham Lad and Mohayer were not value. But, by race-time, Mohayer's drift to 10/1 meant he was in eachway wager territory at 5th odds a place. Not only that, but I did write that all those 3 held decent chances and if you had combined all 3 in 6 x 1pt straight-forecasts then you would have been rewarded with a total return of 37.98pts resulting in a 31.98pt profit.

There is a lot to be gained by reading this blog, and sometimes I wish I followed my own comments!

There will be no look at today's racing nor any selections for today as I'm winding-down at the office and I want an "early-dart". Combined with the Christmas break in the racing calendar, I spent this morning on the train to London looking thru' the Boxing Day entries and trying to find pointers to future winners. The good weather should ensure a full day's racing on Boxing Day with plenty of meetings, so here are my early observations.

At Ffos Las, there is an interesting class 3 chase over 2m3½f as well as the class 2 chase over 3m1½f - both will be worth looking at when final declarations are posted-up.

At Huntingdon, the opening novice hurdle could see  IMPERIAL CIRCUS run again. I reckon this horse has serious long-term potential. Next, at 12:45 there is a lowly class 5 chase over 3-mile which Kim Bailey has won 3 times with just 5 runners (and he had another placed) in the last 10 years stats. He has just BISHOPHILL JACK entered.

At Kempton, the opening novice hurdle has been won by some decent types over the years, and Nicky Henderson always has a strong entry even tho' he's not won it in the past 10-years. He has 6 entries but, interestingly, Paul Nicholls has just the one, PLENTY POCKET. Henderson has a much better record in the novice handicap chase at 1:25 and you should pay attention to which he chooses to run from his 6 entries. Both the Feltham novice chase, and the Christmas Hurdle are still open to entries. I wrote about the King George yesterday and I would not be scared of opposing Long Run as I reckon he's no more than OR172 at best (from what we've seen to date) so Kauto Star has the ability to beat him and he's also within range of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry. Also, don't write off Somersby for whom supporters (me included) have been crying-out for to try 3-miles. He is a rock solid OR166, 2-miler and while he has no turn-of-foot at that trip, over this 3-mile trip you just never know. The final race on the Kempton card looks a cracking 2m5f handicap hurdle and I'm hoping PANTXOA takes part.

I can't see anything at Market Rasen's meeting, so onto Towcester where the opening 2m6f Beginner's Chase could be worth watching if only for prospective notebook candidates.

Wetherby has the "Rowland Meyrick" class 3 handicap chase over 3m1f at 1:45 and this race looks a cracker. Much will depend on the going (currently soft) but there look to be some well handicapped horse entered such as Sarando (OR149), Knockara Beau (OR143), and Lackamon (OR139). If, as is likely, Midnight chase (OR161) takes part then he will keep the likes of Helpston (OR128) and Lockstown (OR126) out of the handicap "proper".

At Wincanton, there is a class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 over 3m1½f that trainer Alan King has won 3 times from just 4 runners, and he has just the one horse entered, the 10yo Rustarix. This race usually goes to a younger horse tho' and yesterday's runner, the 7yo TIME FOR SPRING has top-weight (will he run?) and David Pipe has recent Exeter 2nd SHAKING HANDS in this. Paul Nicholls has EARTH PLANET representing him.

Take note of Peter Bowen's RUN TO FLY who is entered at just about every meeting on Boxing Day.

That's it for now. If I have time then I will post another blog tomorrow, but more likely I will prepare for the Boxing Day meetings - it could be a monster blog posting.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

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2 comments:

  1. Hi Ian

    Just a note to say how much I have appreciated reading your blog this year, always full of insightful advice and profitable as well!!

    Yours is one blog that I try to visit every day so keep up the good work mate.

    Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a great new year.

    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  2. Many thanks for the compliment Mark. I'll do my best in 2012.

    ReplyDelete