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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 11 June 2011
A day to pick & choose your targets
No selections yesterday, but both the suggested place-lays – MARKAZZI and MOHEEBB – were unplaced. I managed to lay MOHEEBB at 2.34 in the morning before he drifted to about 3.00 and the horse ran just as expected, towards the rear of the field before showing little effort in the final half-mile. I did not lay MARKAZZI as he was never shorter than 3.10 in the place-only market. He ran like a non-stayer, having every chance inside the 2f-pole and finding nothing when asked.
In the evening, my old friend HAND PAINTED ran down the field. He wasn’t a selection, so nothing lost, but his performance suggests all is not well in the Makin yard who are having a very poor run by their standards.
Lots of racing today, so impossible to review it all. A day to pick and choose your targets.
From the Notebook we have:-
York 2:40, TARTAN TRIP
Sandown 1:55, MASHAAREF
Sandown 3:30, NIGHT CARNATION
By coincidence, two are trained by Andrew Balding, and he has sent out 9 runners to various courses today.
TARTAN TRIP was beaten by the very well handicapped Sam Sharp (who runs at Chester in the 3:55) at Haydock LTO, and he looks unexposed on turf. Unfortunately, he races from 3lb out of the handicap (he should carry 8st 7lb but actually has 8st 10lb). That and the fact this is over another furlong, may be just enough to blunt his chance of winning today. I cannot recommend a wager.
MASHAAREF will needs to improve on his LTO win to take this off OR83. The form of his last race has not worked out as well as was hoped at the time, and so I cannot recommend a wager on him either.
NIGHT CARNATION however, looks likely to have all in her favour at Sandown today. She’s a C&D winner, she has the highest official rating (109) and the highest speed rating. Andrew Balding was hoping the going would be on the soft side, and it is. At 7/4 she looks good to go.
Of the other races, OUR JONATHAN looked impressive when winning at Chester and he will be tough to beat in the 2:55 at Sandown. TAURUS TWINS was missed when winning on Thursday evening and comes out again today. He is in cracking form but the 6lb penalty may well stop him today.
At Chester, I will be surprised if LORD AVON is not able to capitalise on his draw (1) in the 5f race at 5:05. He comes out fast and leads and has some good speed ratings. Odds of 7/1 look a gift given the fav Bankston Ash looks to need 6f, and the same applies for Murbeh the 2nd fav.
Given the short odds of 7/4, I won’t be wagering on NIGHT CARNATION as there is no room for error at that price, even if I cannot see her being beaten. LORD AVON tho’ at 7/1 looks tremendous value from stall 1 in the 5-furlong race at Chester and this could be all over inside 300 yards
Chester 5:05, LORD AVON, 1pt win @ 7/1 (William Hill & Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked
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