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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 20 December 2011
Let's crown this Prince
Yesterday's selection AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES ran particularly badly.
The horse sweated-up beforehand and never got into contention during the
race, and was pulled-up when tailed-off before 2-out. In my opinion, the
horse was palpably not in a condition to race.
On the form book, the horse has real potential to do well at this grade
and that it ran so diabolically suggests that there should be (if at all
possible) a way for on-course veterinary staff to assess the condition
of horses pre-race and, if they are of the opinion that the horse is not
in a condition to race, then they should have the power to declare it a
non-runner on veterinary grounds. At the moment, I think the onus is on
a trainer to bring the horse to the attention of the on-course
Veterinarian should he (the trainer) think that the horse is not fit to
run (if already declared).
I expect I was not the only punter to strike an early wager on the horse
at what looked generous morning odds (6/1) expecting those odds to
shorten closer to the off. I thought he'd start with an SP of under 4/1,
instead he drifted out to 10/1. As only 8 went to post, and 3 of the
others had no realistic chance of being involved, it was probably only
"office" money from punters off-course who kept his odds at 10/1 -
otherwise, he'd probably have been 16/1 or longer.
It's one thing to lose money on a horse that tries its best and is
defeated, and quite another to lose money on a horse that had no
realistic chance of winning from the moment it left the stables.
I also think that stewards should consider the movement of odds prior to
a race and compare the SP's with a recognised "tissue". Significant
disparities - be they shorter or longer - should require the trainer
(and owner) to report to the stewards their opinion for such a movement.
This is a professional sport after all, with every race televised.
I'm just looking at the one race today which is at Taunton, and it's the
extended 3-mile handicap at 2:00. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a great
strike-rate at Taunton and he sends 2 horses to the track, of which
PRINCE TOM runs in this hurdle race. A course & distance winner, he was
staying-on well in a much more competitive race than this LTO at Newbury
when he was 3rd. He had no chance with the leading pair that day but
today, running off the same OR125 mark, he won't have as much to do.
Most of the others have stamina to prove and, while the soft going may
be an issue, we know that fitness isn't and we know the horse should
improve for his recent run and he stays the trip. PRINCE TOM was my
selection when he ran LTO, and I expect him to do the biz today. Current
odds are 3/1 (Corals & Boylesports) but be quick as I expect him to
start a lot shorter.
Taunton 2:00, PRINCE TOM, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Coral & Boylesports)
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