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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 3 June 2013
Brilliant Derby result
Last week, I was lucky enough to win the Formbet competition with a prize of the Galaxy Tab2 and 6 months membership. Dave McAuley who runs Formbet provides a 1st-rate service and a "free" version of his ratings can be obtained when following the link (click-on Formbet).
I used the Formbet ratings on Friday when assessing the runners in the Group 1 "Oaks" at Epsom, and decided that the 2nd-top-rated on the Formbet ratings - TALENT - looked exceptional value. I wasn't sure she'd be up to winning the race, but I was fairly sure she'd be placed (she had, after all, won her only 3yo start which was the "Pretty Polly" Stakes over 10-furlongs at Newmarket) and so had a place-only wager at average odds of 6.20 on Betfair. Sure enough, she ran up to her rating and went on to win the race at odds of 20/1 from her stablemate (who was top-rated on Formbet).
Then, on Saturday, I used the Formbet ratings and also the opinion of my brother who writes the excellent Sprinterstogo blog to make a couple of selections. Sprinterstogo reviewed only the Epsom Dash over 5-furlongs and the nominated selection was DUKE OF FIRENZE who was 8/1 at the time of writing. DUKE OF FIRENZE was also top-rated by Formbet, and I named that horse as the 1st-leg of my "twitter" double. DUKE OF FIRENZE won at 5/1 - having been laid at 999.0 on Betfair "in-running"!
My 2nd-leg on Saturday was in the Derby - RULER OF THE WORLD. I have long been of the opinion that trainer AP O'Brien sends his prime "Derby" candidate to the Chester May meeting. Yes, he may have other good 3yo colts in his stable, but the one he considers his best Epsom Derby horse goes to Chester, and that's where RULER OF THE WORLD ran and won last month. As such, Duke of Marengo never really entered my calculations, and there was plenty of debate and opinion before the race that the short-priced fav Dawn Approach would be unlikely to stay this 12-furlong trip. For me, RULER OF THE WORLD should have been more like a 3/1 chance and so the 8/1 available in the morning was a real gift from the bookmakers. I also consulted the free email / blog on the Derby provided by Ben Aitken's excellent website Narrowing-The-Field which made RULER OF THE WORLD to most likely winner based on trends and dosage. Ben's site is well worth a regular visit and his own ratings more than pay their way. His occasional free bulletins are worth their weight in gold. Finally, Formbet also had RULER OF THE WORLD as their top-rated selection.
It was no contest really, and RULER OF THE WORLD won the Derby at an SP of 7/1 completing a tremendous day at the races for me. At SP, those 2 winners on Saturday produced a 47/1 winning double, and at the morning odds it was a 80/1 winning double.
Here's a photo of my Galaxy Tab2 provided by Formbet.