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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Wednesday, 26 June 2013
Royal Ascot 2013 look-back
Due to work constraints, my Royal Ascot wagers last week were restricted somewhat, and I was only able to advise wagers via the blog on the opening couple of days. I ended the 1st day down 1pt, but came oh so close to pulling-off a coup with my eachway selection of ALJAMAAHEER at 14/1 (SP 8/1) who finished 2nd having led 100 yards out. This wasn’t a strong Group 1, as I thought the selection only matched his rating (114) when beaten by Farhh in the Lockinge. That means the winner, Declaration Of War, has a bit to find if he meets up with Farhh or Dawn Approach who won the St James’s Palace Stake later on the day.
The 2nd-day of the meeting had fewer opportunities for a wager, but it gave us one of the best of the week with AL KAZEEM in the Prince Of Wales Stakes over 10-furlongs. This was the 3rd time I’ve had a wager this season on the horse and he’s rewarded me with 3 wins. I thought he’d be a 7/4 chance for this and advised taking the 5/2 in the morning. Unbelievably (almost certainly due to the fact that last season’s Derby and Guineas winner Camelot was in the race) the odds on AL KAZEEM lengthened and he had an SP of 11/4. That win gave me a 2.75pt profit for my 1pt win stake and, as he was my final advised wager of the week, ensured I finished the meeting in profit – albeit a slim 1.75pt profit.
Sure enough, AL KAZEEM won cleverly, by just a neck, having been 3-lengths behind the leader under 2-furlongs out. On the bare facts, it’s hard to see how you can rate this performance more than 117 (the Racing Post have given him another 7lbs and rated him 124) as Mukhadram in 2nd was all-out and this was a career-best for him. The manner of his victory suggests AL KAZEEM has plenty in the locker and tho’ that can be dangerous to rely on, this year’s 10-12 furlong horses look weak. Being capable of 118-123 performances could be enough to secure him some decent prizes during the remaining months of this season. That said, he’ll need to find about 5-7lb of improvement if he’s to be in the frame of the Arc de Triomphe, and the Japanese trained ORFEVRE (who was just touched-off into 2nd in the race last October) looks the antepost wager at this stage at 7/1 if any readers are looking long-term. It will take some judicious management by his trainer if AL KAZEEM can maintain his unbeaten run for the remainder of the season and mount a serious challenge in the Arc De Triomphe.
There were some tremendous performances at Royal Ascot but, for me, the performance of the week came on Saturday from LETHAL FORCE. There is a tendency for ratings compilers to scoff at decent performances from long-odds runners who are clearly improving. When LETHAL FORCE beat Strong Suit at Newbury last season at the odds of 25/1 he showed a tremendous level of ability to beat a horse capable of earning rating of 125+ and was only receiving 5lb. I rated that run at 123, whereas RPR gave him a rating of only 116. He was struck-into NTO so couldn’t repeat that form, and on his final appearance of the season he hated the heavy ground at Longchamps. For his seasonal debut, he ran a cracker despite probably needing the run at York when just failing to hold Society Rock. He was sure to come on for that run and a performance up to the level of last season’s win in the Hungerford Stakes would see him in the picture here. In hindsight, these things are easy to see but, in my book, he exceeded that form and ran to 125 on Saturday. We know the horse stays 7-furlongs and so a stiff 6-furlongs – such as the July Cup at Newmarket next month – will be a suitable target. What a tremendous purchase at just 8,500 Euros this horse was as a yearling.
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