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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 27 June 2013
Early look at the Irish Derby
Now, altho' I was on Ruler Of The World at Epsom, I'm not sure he'll stay a true-run 12-furlongs. The early pace of the Derby was a joke and while ROTW clearly has a devastating turn-of-foot, for me the jury is still out as to whether he's a 12-furlong horse or not. His half-bro' Duke Of Marmalade, only had 2 runs over 12-furlongs winning his 1st attempt which was in the King George. The horse he beat that day, Papal Bull, certainly stayed the 12-furlong trip but never won a Group 1 in 7 attempts and this was the closest he got. Duke Of Marmalade was a miler as a 3yo, running 2nd in the St James's Palace Stakes.
As such, I think the value lies with Libertarian (7/2) and Galileo Rock (8/1).
Libertarian, a half-bro to the Godolphin owned Prince Siegfried, reminds me of Prince Regent (that will make you look for the record books) who won the race in 1969 after being a fast-finishing 3rd to Blakeney in that years Derby.
Galileo Rock is a half-bro to Saddlers Rock, last seen finishing down the field in last weeks Ascot Gold Cup. The thought is that this horse may be best aimed at the St Leger in September, tho' I reckon if this race (Irish Derby) is truly run then he's the horse that will benefit the most. He looks certain to finish in the 1st-3.
At the odds, I am a layer of ROTW, and(just on the balance of the odds) I'll be having a small eachway wager on GALILEO ROCK @ 8/1.
Thanks for reading this blog,
from Wayward Lad