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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 27 June 2013

Early look at the Irish Derby

There is not much separating the 1st-3 home in the Derby and the winner is unlikely to come from outside these 3. I'm not sure I think the Bolger horse, Trading Leather, is up for this. Yes, in hindsight the Dante result looks stronger now than it did at the time, but what irks me is that the horse then went for the Irish Guineas and not the French Derby as was anticipated at the time of the York race. That suggests there is not the strength of support at home to warrant this one being the 5/1 3rd fav to win the Irish Derby.

Now, altho' I was on Ruler Of The World at Epsom, I'm not sure he'll stay a true-run 12-furlongs. The early pace of the Derby was a joke and while ROTW clearly has a devastating turn-of-foot, for me the jury is still out as to whether he's a 12-furlong horse or not. His half-bro' Duke Of Marmalade, only had 2 runs over 12-furlongs winning his 1st attempt which was in the King George. The horse he beat that day, Papal Bull, certainly stayed the 12-furlong trip but never won a Group 1 in 7 attempts and this was the closest he got. Duke Of Marmalade was a miler as a 3yo, running 2nd in the St James's Palace Stakes.

As such, I think the value lies with Libertarian (7/2) and Galileo Rock (8/1).

Libertarian, a half-bro to the Godolphin owned Prince Siegfried, reminds me of Prince Regent (that will make you look for the record books) who won the race in 1969 after being a fast-finishing 3rd to Blakeney in that years Derby.
Galileo Rock is a half-bro to Saddlers Rock, last seen finishing down the field in last weeks Ascot Gold Cup. The thought is that this horse may be best aimed at the St Leger in September, tho' I reckon if this race (Irish Derby) is truly run then he's the horse that will benefit the most. He looks certain to finish in the 1st-3.

At the odds, I am a layer of ROTW, and(just on the balance of the odds) I'll be having a small eachway wager on GALILEO ROCK @ 8/1.

Thanks for reading this blog,
from Wayward Lad

1 comment:

  1. I think I read that race fairly well (even if I say so myself).
    The initial thoughts of jockey Joseph O'Brien was that Ruler Of The World didn't get the trip and is probably more of a 10-furlong horse.