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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 5 July 2013
Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown
Saturday see's the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes over 10-furlongs at Sandown. My old fav this season Al Kazeem should run well in this, and he's won for me twice already this year. What I'm worried about tho' is that he's now had 3 proper races, and the last of them at Royal Ascot was a hard race. He only managed to beat Mukhadram a neck at Ascot over this trip and, even tho' he looked to have more in the tank then, I'd be happier if Al Kazeem had missed this race and waited for the King George at the end of July. Mukhadram could be considered the value wager being 8/1 with some layers, but he was all-out at Ascot and wont be given such free rein this time round. Declaration Of War, also a Royal Ascot winner, does not strike me as a Group 1 10-furlong horse and will probably be best when confined to a mile. The Fugue would have to be at the very top of her game to win this and she's one for the places as she has more than a few pounds to find to guarantee success. The 3yo colt Mars could be capable of a surprise if he's better than his Derby form (was beaten nearly 4-lengths into 6th behind Ruler Of The World), but I feel he's another horse that will prove best at a mile. That brings me to what looks undoubtedly the value horse in the race, PASTORIUS @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (and 10/1 generally).
Yes, he ran a stinker in Singapore when last seen on the track on 19th May but, before that, he won the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamps beating some solid top-class campaigners. In 2nd that day was Maxios who won the Group 1 Prix D'Ispahan NTO, and in 3rd was Dunaden who chased home St Nicholas Abbey at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. On that form, PASTORIUS should be much shorter in the market and I would have thought 7/2 was a more realistic assessment of his chance.
I'm having a 1pt win wager on PASTORIUS @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
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