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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 14 July 2013
Lethal Force proves to be best UK sprinter of 2013
There were some tremendous performances at Royal Ascot but, for me, the performance of the week came on Saturday from LETHAL FORCE. There is a tendency for ratings compilers to scoff at decent performances from long-odds runners who are clearly improving. When LETHAL FORCE beat Strong Suit at Newbury last season at the odds of 25/1 he showed a tremendous level of ability to beat a horse capable of earning a rating of 125+ and was only receiving 5lb. I rated that run at 123, whereas RPR gave him a rating of only 116. He was struck-into NTO so couldn’t repeat that form, and on his final appearance of the season he hated the heavy ground at Longchamps. For his seasonal debut, he ran a cracker despite probably needing the run at York when just failing to hold Society Rock. He was sure to come on for that run and a performance up to the level of last season’s win in the Hungerford Stakes would see him in the picture here. In hindsight, these things are easy to see but, in my book, he exceeded that form and ran to 125 on Saturday. We know the horse stays 7-furlongs and so a stiff 6-furlongs – such as the July Cup at Newmarket next month – will be a suitable target. What a tremendous purchase at just 8,500 Euros this horse was as a yearling.
Yesterday, Lethal Force ran right up to the rating I assigned him after his Royal Ascot win and scorched home to take the Group 1 July Cup in a track record time. Quite how he was allowed to start at odds of 9/2 is beyond me - the 3/1 fav Shea Shea is best at 5-furlongs in my opinion and his RPR123 rating for winning in Meydan was probably too generous by about 5lb. The 3yo Gale Force Ten was never a force over similar trips as a 2yo and has improved markedly as a 3yo when stepped-up to 7-furlongs and a mile (which, considering his dam Ronaldsay was best over 12-furlongs, is fairly obvious from the breeding), so I'm not sure why this one started the 4/1 2nd-fav.
Group 1 form is usually very consistent and when you can find such tremendous 9/2 wagers as this with rock-solid form lines, then there is no need to scrabble round the minor tracks plying the Class 5 & 6 dross.
All the best from Wayward Lad.