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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Monday, 5 January 2015

George Soros: "Risk" - do not ignore uncertainty.

"The risk that cannot be quantified is what you should always take account of," 
So says George Soros, the man who "broke the Bank Of England" on Black Wednesday in 1992. 
A man who has donated US$8 billion to human rights, public health, and education causes.
I heard the thoughts of the man with regard to risk when listening to the BBC Radio 4 programme "Teaching Economics After The Crash", which was broadcast yesterday.
The link is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04svjbj
If you do nothing else today, please listen to this programme. If it doesn't grab your interest within the first 3 minutes, then I can only assume that you are a UKIP voter who wants to blames this countries ills (that is the UK - this blog is read in over 20 countries) on immigration.

Why have I brought this to your attention? Because if you are successful at wagering on horseracing, then you have to be aware of the risk than cannot be quantified. As gamblers we are aware of uncertainty as, if we don't take full account of it, we are certain to lose in the long run.What surprised me about the programme was that the Worlds economic lecturers do not take account of risk in a similar fashion - the economic model used by the World is "flawed" (this is the opinion of George Soros). I am no economist, but I'd have thought that the study of any subject that is fundamentally affected by human behaviour should quickly realise that, when assessing risk, you cannot ignore uncertainty.

Hence, a horseracing gambler will always understand the meaning of the word "value" as their assessment of a horse's chances will include an assessment of risk. 
Example: a horse assessed by yourself as a 7/4 chance being offered in the betting market at 5/4 (or shorter) is a poor risk; that same horse offered at odds of 9/4 (or longer) is a good risk.

Saturday's blog was a good effort even tho' neither selection won, as both were placed. BRICK RED produced a very sketchy round of jumping, and that (in my opinion) cost him the race. He's unlikely to go up in the weights for this run and looks well handicapped on OR144. Given the ground at Sandown became softer as the day wore on, it was a tremendous effort from my other selection TRIOLO D'ALENE to be 3rd with top-weight in the 3-mile handicap chase. I reckon on better ground, and with another furlong to run, he can win off this rating. He's not good enough to win a Gold Cup, but he could win a serious handicap.

So, no wins on Saturday, but a profitable day none-the-less. 

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