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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Saturday, 24 January 2015
Dynaste to show Gold Cup credentials
What a tremendous day of racing we have today with meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter over the jumps. Before we start looking at the racing in depth, some of you may be wondering why I’ve not advised a wager on SPRINTER SACRE for the Champion Chase given that I think he’s not far off (about 7lb) being the best 2-mile chaser in training based on his run last weekend. The reason is that I don’t think he’s good enough value when you factor in the distinct possibility that he won’t run at the Festival. I’d say he’s 6/4 to line up for the race and, if he lines up (without a further preparatory race between now and then) he’s a 9/4 chance to win the race. At current odds, he’s just not value in my opinion; hence I’ve gone for a horse that will almost certainly take in the race in AL FEROF.
I’m going to be at the meeting, so I’m writing this blog on Friday with the hope of being able to make a few tweaks on Saturday morning (as I’m not driving).
The day opens with the Triumph Hurdle Trial at 12:40 and the race may only have 6 runners, but it looks a cracking field. This will be a race for watching tho’, having inspected the runners in the paddock to see which seems most up-for-it, I’ll probably have a small wager for interest.
The 2m5f novice handicap chase at 1:05 looks more like it for me. This looks a top class field of 13-runners who will all be worthwhile following for the remainder of the season.
The race of the day is the Betbright Cup, a 3-mile & 110 yard chase. There are only 6 runners but, again, it looks a class field. Personally, I cannot see The Giant Bolster repeating last year’s win in the race. He always runs well at this meeting so I’d expect him to be chasing home the winner. At the weights, this looks between DYNASTE and Smad Place, as Black Thunder and Many Clouds are perhaps 10lb inferior to DYNASTE and Theatre Guide is running only for place money. For Smad Place to be in with a chance, he has to return to his form when 2nd here in the RSA Chase last March. His run in the Hennessey when well behind the winner Many Clouds has to be completely obliterated from the memory. For me, easily the best form in the race is the LTO run by DYNASTE at Kempton in the King George when he was 2nd to Silviniaco Conti. A repeat will make winning this a formality, and the Ryanair winner loves this track. Odds of 5/2 look very fair and I'm on him today.
Next on the card at 2:25 is another handicap chase, again over 2m5f but this is a Grade 3 race. There are 10 runners with the top-weight being Quincy Des Pictons. I like to look to a younger horse in races like this and the 7yo’s Annacotty, Easter Day and Little Jon are my idea of being the winner. Annacotty was 2nd in the novice chase over C&D on this day last season and a repeat of that would see him going close. Both Easter Day and Little Jon look under-exposed with each having only had 4 chase runs to date. Odds of 6/1 about ANNACOTTY look very fair.
At 3:00 we have the Neptune Novices Hurdle over 2m4f & 110 yards, and this race is one that I’ll be watching rather than wagering on at this stage.
I’m more interested in the Cleeve Hurdle at 3:35 over 3-miles. If SAPHIR DU RHEU retains his verve for hurdling after a few novice chase’s, and there is no reason that the 6yo shouldn’t, then this race should be a piece of cake as he’s the standout at the weights. I’m expecting him to start at 6/4 (maybe even shorter) so if you can get anything longer than 7/4 perhaps you should take advantage (see BetVictor and Paddy Power). I won’t be advising a wager, as I don’t advice anything at odds less than 9/4 over the jumps.
The final race of the day at Cheltenham is the 2m1f handicap hurdle at 4:10.
DoncasterThe race of the day at Doncaster is the Skybet (Handicap) Chase over 3-mile and last year I was on NIGHT OF MILAN who tried to make all, but faded about half-a-mile out and pulled-up. Then he came out and won NTO over 3m2f when returning to the same track. The worry with this horse is the soft ground, as all his wins (apart from a hurdle race over 2m4f) have been on good-to-soft or “good” ground – in 10 races on soft ground he’s never won. I like the look of the 6yo ROYAL PLAYER.