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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 3 January 2015

Saturday 3rd January 2015 - the first post of a New Year

We've had some cracking racing over the past couple of weeks with one of the best performances this season from Silviniaco Conti to win his 2nd Kin g George Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. How this horse managed to start at an SP of 15/8 is a mystery as he didn't even have to run to as high a standard as the previous year (in my book) to record a victory in the race. The worry is that despite being easily the best staying chaser at 3-mile around Kempton, there is not much confidence in him doing the same over 3m2f & 110 yards at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup come March. The problem with Silviniaco Conti is that he's a dour stayer, a grinder, a pulveriser, he's a horse that needs to win his race a mile out from the finish - he hasn't got a turn-of-foot to save his life and showed that last March after jumping the final fence of the Gold Cup in the lead, yet finished 4th.
At Wetherby on Boxing Day we saw a great performance from Dolatulo to take the grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase over 3m1f. Good yardstick Cape Tribulation was in 2nd, and this win makes Dolatulo 2 wins from 2 races over fences beyond 2m6f. He's been re-rated to OR148 (up 9lb) but that could well be 7lb light.
On 27th December at Chepstow we saw a terrific race for the Welsh National with Emperor's Choice winning and, in the process, showing what a fine performer he is on heavy ground. The horse has now won on 5 of his last 7 starts (over fences) on heavy ground, he really loves the mud. That said, I think the handicapper has gone overboard by re-rating him OR139 and he could have a long period out of the winners enclosure now, One of the only horses to beat Emperor's Choice over fences on heavy ground is Arbeo - a chaser with Diana Grissell. After beating Emperor's Choice in Dec12, he won his next couple of races and was rated OR124, but his form has tailed-off and he's currently on OR102. He's only a 9yo, and if he can recover his form he looks a handicap snip on heavy ground.

There are a couple of interesting races at Sandown today, and the 2-mile chase at 1:50pm looks to be dominated by the fav Mr Mole, and Brick Red (representing Venetia Williams). Brick Red is one of 3 off my alert list coming into the race, the other two being Desert Cry and Parsnip Pete. Desert Cry just failed to win here on heavy ground last Feb off OR147 and it's likely he'll struggle to win this today off this mark, even tho' he won his seasonal debut last season. The ground may be too soft for Parsnip Pete, but his OR145 rating looks a tad high now.  With BRICK RED weighted to go close today - and he's also run well on right-handed tracks similar to Sandown - he gets the vote. The fav Mr Mole is talented, but is also a quirky and difficult ride and I'd want more than 3/1. The odds about BRICK RED are 9/2 (Bet Victor and Betfred) and that makes him the wager in this.

The final race on the card is a 3-mile Class 2 handicap chase and there is a lot of support for Unioniste who is now an unbackable 3/1 (you can find 7/2 being offered in short bursts). At the odds, for me the value is the 2013 Hennessey Gold Cup winner Triolo D'Alene at 18/1. He's done nothing wrong since that win yet the handicapper has dropped him 4lb to OR154 which gives him a great chance - he's certainly an eachway wager. The ground will not be in his favour, but this opposition looks beatable.
Unioniste will need a career-best to win this;
The ground will not be soft enough for Relax;
Count Guido Deiro didn't beat much LTO and is up 7lbs;
Bertie Boru may find his stamina stretched by this trip;
This race is no place for a novice chaser like Tinker Time;
Firm Order has never been a horse to rely on, and the ground may be too soft for him anyway;
Of those ahead of Triolo D'Alene in the betting, only What's Happening looks interesting as he ran well here LTO (he beat Emperor's Choice that day), and his OR131 rating looks fair. He also will enjoy the ground today and this shorter trip (than he faced LTO) will suit him. Odds of 12/1 with Ladbrokes look fair, but take those early.

Sandown 1:50 - BRICK RED, £5 eachway @ 9/2 (Betfred and Bet Victor)
Sandown 3:35 - TRIOLO D'ALENE, £5 eachway @ 18/1 (with Stan James quarter odds a place 1,2,3)

1 comment:

  1. Happy New Year WL. Always a positive part of my day to read your postings. good luck on the days action.



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