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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 31 January 2015
Excellent meeting at Sandown
The Class 2 handicap chase over 2-mile at Sandown could prove an race worth wagering on. When he last ran I was on Brick Red, who jumped poorly making numerous errors when 2nd here to Mr Mole. If he can jump better then he should be capable of showing much improved form, as I reckon he ran to 153 last season and so (off OR144) he's well handicapped. However, he won't have it all his own way as Ballygarvey ran the best race of his life when 4th at Cheltenham in November 2013, a performance I rated 146. He finished a neck behind Eastlake that day when receiving 2lb, and Eastlake went on to beat French Opera NTO by a length when in-receipt of 10lb. So, on that form there's about 11lb between Ballygarvey and French Opera. We didn't see Ballygarvey again until December due to injury, but he won that return without being stretched in my opinion, and a return to his best form is possible. Another in the race subject to some support is Festive Affair, who beat Brick Red when they last met at Newbury, but that was only Brick Red's second chase race, and he's improved a lot since then. With a doubt over Ballygarvey (that he may "bounce"), and with French Opera held (in my opinion) and Festive Affair on a recovery mission after a few poor efforts, I favour BRICK RED to succeed in this and the odds of 4/1 look very fair indeed.
The Scilly Isles Novice Chase looks a cracker, and I can't split them. This looks a race to savour and could well produce a future Festival winner.
For another possible wager I'm looking at the 2m6f handicap hurdle at 3:00pm where the fav Polamco may struggle to find further improvement to win off a 4lb higher rating than LTO. Saffron Wells looks a bit one-paced, and I'm more interested in Junction Fourteen who has yet to return to the form of his novice season which culminated in a win on soft ground at Kempton in Dec13. Even so, without improving on what he's shown this season, he looks held on OR137. The horse that interests me most is CADOUDOFF who is the youngest in the race being just a 5yo. His last couple of runs have been on heavy ground and tho' he was held LTO, before that he chased home the multiple winner Lightentertainment who has since been re-rated16lb higher after winning another 2 races since. This race is likely to be very testing and CADOUDOFF will handle the ground and will be hard to keep out of the frame, so odds of 11/1 look eachway value.
It is the 3-mile chase at 3:35pm that could produce the bet of the day in THEATRICAL STAR. He stays the trip, handles the ground and looks weighted to run well being only 2lb higher for his gallant run when 2nd in the 3m5f Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick 3 weeks ago. The race fav will likely be Bertie Boru who was 2nd here over C&D on the 3rd Jan, but he looks held by the handicapper on that run. I think Le Reve was flattered when he won here in November, as the race fell apart in the final mile and he virtually finished alone. His 3rd LTO suggests he's held on OR139. The Paul Nicholls trained Just A Par looked a promising novice chaser last season, but again he was flattered by a win at Newbury, and when facing Grade 1 opposition for his next 3 races his limitations were exposed. Personally, I reckon he's not a true 3-miler and he'd do better over 2m6f. Ardkilly Witness has had trouble holding his form before now, and I'm not confident he will repeat his effort of LTO now he's up another 7lb. The other Nicholls runner, There's No Panic loves Sandown and always runs well here and he will stay every yard of this and some. As will Hadrians Approach, who won the old "Whitbread" here last April over 3m5f. If he gets into a good rhythm he could take this race apart even with top-weight. There are a few in this race who could win if everything falls into place, so not a race hich holds a lot of confidence. It could be significant that Sam Twiston-Davies rides There's No Panic and not Just A Par and, on reflection, I'm going to pass over this race though I may have a small eachway wager on both Theatrical Star and Hadrians Approach.
I'm taking the 4/1 on BRICK RED as I'd have expected him to be about 5/2 for this.