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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 11 November 2015
A lovely day in Bangor!
We have not enjoyed much luck this past week
- identifying winners and not selecting them;
- alert list recommendations not being followed up, then winning;
- and good chances being given poor rides.
Yesterday's selection Cloudy Joker, drifted in the betting to start at 12/1 and ran a great race, up with the pace for much of the race, before feeling the pinch in the run up to the final fence and having nothing left for the run-in. He's not yet recovered his pre-injury form, but this race suggests he is not far away.
We have 3 alert list runners at Bangor:
Cloudy Too in the 3-mile Class 2 handicap chase at 2:00pm, and
Foxcub and After Eight Sivola in the 2m3f Class 2 handicap hurdle at 3:00pm.
I first noticed Cloudy Too when he won a novice chase at Carlisle in November 2012, beating his stable mate Vintage Star. I rated that win at 144, which was 10lb higher than RPR, and 15lb higher than the Official Handicapper who put him up to OR129. Sometimes it pays to rely on your own ratings! With top-weight today in the day's feature race at Bangor, he may have a hard task ahead, and then again he may not. The handicapper has dropped him from OR156 (last Feb) to OR145, this is a horse who won the Rowland Meyrick (Grade 3) handicap chase on Boxing Day on 2013 off OR148 by 10-lengths, and he is only a 9yo today. There has been a 9yo winner of this race, but only the one and nothing older - so I can effectively put a line thru' those 10yo or older. The other 9yo in the field, Achimota, does not look to have any improvement in him. Of the 6 horses 8yo or younger, Catching On is rated on his good win over 3m6f and this trip may be on the short-side for him. With 13 chase runs to date, the 7yo What A Good Night appears to have "plateaued". The 6yo Algernon Pazham ran a cracker when 3rd at Haydock in April over 3-mile on soft, and runs today off the same OR135 rating. He looks set to run a big race today. Given the form of his stable, Shantou Magic ran a disappointing race LTO when well-beaten over 2m5f. The 7yo Fergal Mael Duin looks outclassed and is usually one-paced at the business end. Bob Ford was 2nd in this race last year off OR132, but had the benefit of a run that day, and comes here off a break and on a 4lb higher rating.
It is no surprise to see Algernon Pazham the race-fav at 5/1, and those odds look fair, as do the odds of 7/1 about Cloudy Too.
Last year, Foxcub won the 2m3f handicap hurdle at 3:00pm off a rating of OR132, when he was allowed to run-away with the race. Unfortunately, the soft ground won't help him today and, much as I'd like to tip him as we were on him last year, The soft ground is also a worry about After Eight Sivola, but he is well-handicapped on OR128, and won LTO, last month. The race-fav Gold Present may be the answer as Nicky Henderson does not come to Bangor often and has a tremendous strike-rate here.
At Ayr, we also have an alert list runner in Final Assault in the 3-mile handicap chase at 2:50pm, Unfortunately, I think this 3-mile trip may catch him out and I would not want to be on him at current odds of 7/4, as that is not value. He may well prove me wrong and win, but the 5yo Un Noble should not be under-estimated, and the 8yo Presented (2nd to Vintage Star last week), is proven at the trip and race-fit.
Do we have a wager today? I always prefer youth when placing a wager, as they have the potential to improve. Odds of 5/1 look fair on ALGERNON PAZHAM, and Twiston-Davies has his horses running well. If Cloudy Too goes well, then he will win, so I can't see much point in going eachway with him.
Bangor 2:00 - ALGERNON PAZHAM; £6 eachway @ 5/1 (available generally quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
and a "saver" wager on
CLOUDY TOO; £3 WIN @ 7/1 (available generally)
Total staked = £15