Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Monday, 2 November 2015
Danny Cook's up a vintage ride and secures the odds - 10/1 winner!
They won't come much better: 5 selections, and 3 winners at odds of 8/1, 8/1, and 10/1 and they were all given in good time for those on the email list to place their wagers, sit back, and enjoy.
Yesterday's win by VINTAGE STAR, advised at 10/1, was the icing on the cake. The horse does not have much left at the business end of his races, hence the advised eachway wager - but, had I known jockey Danny Cook had been instructed to kick-on with a mile to go and take the race, I would have made the horse a £20 win wager. That said, he looked tired approaching the final fence and only just cleared it; it would not have surprised me to have seen him buckle on landing and come down - but that is luck for you when it is in your corner!
Over the weekend, I advised 5 wagers: one was a speculative punt at £2.50 eachway on Leo Luna at Ascot, and I'm sure that will be recouped soon as Gary Moore does not send no-hopers to Ascot. Another, Royal Regatta, was left at the start and unable to get back on terms. While, with hindsight, it was probably unlikely that Royal Regatta would have won that race - the winner Cold March looks exciting and is now on my alert list - he certainly would have beaten another from my alert list in the race (Baby Mix) and finished 2nd or 3rd had he not been handicapped by the poor start.
This hurt my wallet as I'd placed a small (personal) eachway double on Royal Regatta and PENDRA as the place-double odds were worth 8.75/1.
However, the other 3 selections were fantastic opportunities which we may struggle to repeat in the coming weeks and months. Don't get me wrong, I will be striving to maintain the pace of these tremendous opening weeks of the jumps season, but remember THIS IS NOT A TIPPING BLOG.
I write solely out of a love of horseracing and I make absolutely no guarantees whatsoever. Writing the blog takes time (about 2 hours per blog), but that time spent barely scratches the surface of my horseracing knowledge.
We will have a losing run, that is inevitable. Long term readers of the blog will remember Handy Andy (18Oct13) jumping the last at Cheltenham over 6-lengths clear at 16/1 - but coming 4th of 15. Or Foxcub (21Nov13) who was 10-lengths clear at 10/1 approaching the final flight - and then falling with the race at his mercy. Both these horses WON their very next race.
Looking at today's horseracing, there are 3 meetings, all over the jumps, at Kempton, Plumpton and Ludlow. For a Monday, we are being spoiled!
I have a couple of horse from my alert list running, both at Kempton. The novice handicap chase over 3-mile at 2:00pm includes DREAMSOFTHEATRE who went close for us LTO at Ludlow on 7th October when 2nd at 7/1.
He's up 6lb to OR134, and that may be too much for him with top-weight of 11:12. This is a novice handicap tho' and a couple of the market leaders (Billy Merriot and Port Melon) still need to prove they can complete an error-free chase race. The trip is no worry for Urcalin and he is the most likely winner in my opinion (based on form), as Parish Business is another who has a lot to prove. Another likely to go well in Kilmurvy whose 10/1 odds look generous. He is a proven jumper of a fence, and will stay the trip; he's just a little one-paced. The other 3 in the race look outclassed. Odds of 7/1 about Dreamsoftheatre look fair with 9 runners and 5th odds a place 1,2,3 as it is difficult to see this experienced horse not being in the 1st-3 home.
My other alert list horse is an unlikely winner, so I will not mention his race.
Neither Ludlow or Plumpton offer wagering opportunities as I've made a decision to not venture into races below Class 3.
Kempton 2:00 DREAMSOFTHEATRE, £5 eachway @ 7/1 (available generally)