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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 1 November 2015
PENDRA makes it 8/1 at the double!
PENDRA has been on my alert list since December 2012, that's nearly 3 years, and I reckoned coming into today he was a horse who was probably 8lb, and possibly 10lb, well-in on the handicap. My only doubt was the 3-mile trip, as he'd looked at the limit of his stamina when beaten at the Cheltenham Festival when racing over 3m1f. However, today's race wasn't as competitive, and he had the brilliant Barry Geraghty in the saddle who, with all respect to AP McCoy, is possibly the most gifted jump jockey of a generation. If anyone could guide this horse to victory, Barry Geraghty could.
The pace was sound, and many had thrown in the towel over a mile out so, at the 3rd-last fence when Geraghty asked PENDRA to make his move, it was quickly "game-over". Probably 5-lengths clear jumping the final fence, PENDRA coasted to victory on the run in.
For those on the email list the victory was particularly sweet as I sent out the blog via email at 9pm on Friday evening, with an instruction to take the 8/1 as soon as possible as I'd just missed 9/1. The eventual SP of the winner was 11/2.
I felt confident about my other selection earlier in the afternoon, ROYAL REGATTA in the 2:15 at Ascot - but the starter made a real hash of his duty, with Royal Regatta caught flat-footed and left standing (he had been poised to take his usual prominent position, but the starter have waved the white-flag and turned the field about) and he was unable to recover.
My 3rd selection of the day was DYNASTE at Wetherby, but the rain possibly did for his chances as he was unable to peg-back his old adversary Cue Card on the run-in having looked the most likely winner of the race as they approached the final fence. DYNASTE is a consistent 162-165 performer, but at this level that isn't good enough as he always seems to find one better on the day. Cue Card is back to his best, and I can see him winning another at this level before the end of the season, but he's not in the class of Coneygree or Don Cossack, so do not be tempted to look at the Gold Cup next March.
Sunday brings a couple of meetings at Carlisle and Huntingdon. There is a decent handicap chase at Carlisle at 2:35pm, and this Class 3 chase over 3m2f looks very weak for the grade. I really cannot see the current fav King Of The Wolds staying this trip, as he is uncompetitive over 3-mile. Last years winner Ballyoliver wants the ground soft, end of story. Settledoutofcourt struggled off this sort of rating for most of last season and he couldn't win off this rating when in this race last season (came 3rd). If 13yo Tullamore Dew wins this, I'll eat my flat cap! Son Of Suzie is a novice chaser having only his 4th chase race, and is not for me. VINTAGE STAR has been on my alert list since November 2012, and while he's not won many in that period, he's come close a number of times. His seasonal debut is a good time to catch him and, if he can run to the level of last autumn (when he was rated 10lb higher by the handicapper), he will win this race without breaking sweat. He goes well on "good" ground and will enjoy some give if the rains come, and the trip and track are no hindrance. I've already taken the 10/1 with Bet365, as he's 7/1 with a few bookies. It's eachway, as he's a bit flat-footed at the business end, hence he's been 2nd, 9-times in 28 races! It looks like those on the email list have snapped-up the 10/1, as (at 9am on Sunday morning) Bet365 are best-odds with 15/2. This blog was sent out by email at 11:42pm on Saturday evening to those on the email list.
At Huntingdon, I will be watching the novice chase at 3:30pm with interest as it's thrown up a few decent chasers, and I have been anticipating Saffron Wells going novice chasing - he looks just the type to excel, but we wont know until he's "tested in battle".
Carlisle: 2:35pm VINTAGE STAR, £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Bet365, 5th odd a place 1,2,3 - BetVictor are 9/1, others bookies are shorter)