The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 5

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) LOST 

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

Champion Hurdle: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 & Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Stayers' Hurdle: GOLD TWEET - £5 ew @ 12/1 (NRNB)

These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked

NH Chase: Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior / Broadway: Gerri Colombe & Thyme Hill / 

Ryanair: Shishkin (banker) 

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Total Staked to Date: £140 (Note: £20 returned NRNB)

The 5-day declarations for the 3rd day of the Festival came out yesterday (Friday 10th) and in the "Turners" there were no real surprises. There has been some money for Balco Coastal who is now 11/1 (from 14's). In the Ryanair, French Dynamite is now available at 16/1 (NRNB) with some and he's now interesting as an ew wager for a place.

At the time of writing (Saturday morning) the Triumph Hurdle, County (h'cap) Hurdle, and Albert Bartlett hurdle have too many entries to consider the form properly, especially as the County and AB can - and have - been won by rank outsiders. Regards the Gold Cup, there's nothing much that I can add that your haven't already read somewhere else. 

The race revolves around Galopin Des Champs, and if he's as good as his reputation suggests then he's unbeatable. However, the Gold Cup trip is 510yds longer than the 3-miles he won over at Leopardstown LTO, and much of that 510yds is uphill - and many a "good thing" has come unstuck on that run-in. His current best odds of 15/8 (William Hill) don't look value to me, not when last years winner A Plus Tard (who had less question-marks) went off at 3/1. 

What of the others? If the ground turns soft (unlikely) then you may see Bravemansgame pulled-out, and if he does run, I think he has as good a chance at the the fav of winning, which make his odds of 13/2 look value. 

Last years winner A Plus Tard cannot be ignored, despite and indifferent run at Haydock last autumn, you have to respect his trainer Henry de  Bromhead who managed to prepare the 2021 Gold Cup winner Minella Indo to run 2nd last year - also after an indifferent season. Winning the Gold Cup takes a supreme effort, and the race can make or break a horse. For example, Minella Rocco (2nd in 2017) was never the same horse again, ditto Might Bite (2nd in 2018), and Santini (2nd in 2019).  This reminds me of a the words of a respected handicapper: "the winner can have the easiest race". In 2019, Al Boum Photo won the Gold Cup, and returned the following year in 2020 to win again off just one preparatory race. As such, I fully expect A Plus Tard to run well up to his known ability, and if he runs within 10lb of his run last year he will take some beating.  Back in January, I didn't think we'd see A Plus Tard run again this season, but right now I wish I'd taken the 12/1 that was available at the time, and I can see him going-off as the 5/1 2nd-fav. 

The 2022 Grand National winner Noble Yeats is worthy of a place in the race, but just as Grand National winners Hedgehunter (2005) ran 2nd in the 2006 Gold Cup, and Mon Mome (2009) ran 3rd in the 2010 Gold Cup, and Neptune Collonges (2012) was no better than 3rd in the 2008 Gold Cup (from 4 attempts) I cannot see this horse winning next week. Yes, he will be staying-on strong in the final half-mile, but he will likely be starting his run from maybe 30-lengths behind the leader after being outpaced mid-race. I can see him being 3rd or 4th. 

The 8yo Stattler, who won the NH Chase over 3m6f here last year, hasn't shown form that suggests he can win this race, as he needs to find 10lb on what he's shown already, and that's a big ask. I'm not saying he can't win - Lord Windermere did in 2014 and he had a similar profile - but he will need the race to fall apart (like it did in 2014), and a giant slug of luck.

Conflated isn't good enough, and needs a slow-run race to be in with a chance, but if it's slow run then he will have Noble Yeats, A Plus Tard, and Stattler to contend with, as well as the fav Golopin De Champs.  

Ahoy Senor is more interesting, as the trip should suit him well.  But his jumping is indifferent, and his performances are consistent but not good enough - so he needs all the better horses to run poorly to be in with a shout. But with a bit of luck he could nick 4th or even 3rd.

When Ahoy Senor won LTO, the 8yo Protektorat who went off the fav for that race ran an absolute stinker, and we have to wonder if he was flattered by winning the Betfair Chase when A Plus Tard pulled-up. I thought he was the real-deal in January, hence putting him up as a selection in the antepost portfolio; but he was 3rd in this last year and his trainer Dan Skelton reckons he's a stronger horse this year, so he could again run into a place. However, being realistic I cannot see him winning this. 

You can make a case - if you want to - for the likes of Minella Indo, Sounds Russian, and Hewick coming in 3rd or 4th, but realistically they don't tick enough boxes in a race which invariably takes no prisoners.  If there is any chink in a horse, it will be exposed, and I can see there being only 6 or 7 still in the race as they jump the 3rd-last fence, and the remainder will have thrown-in the towel and pulled-up: but which will be the seven? 

At this time, I'm looking at Bravemansgame and A Plus Tard, but perhaps I'm clutching at straws.

Ultima H'cap Chase (update)

Always a competitive race run at a strong pace. Winners need to stay the trip: 13 of the last 15 winners had won over 3-mile or more before winning this race. The 2015 winner The Druid's Nephew had won over 2m7f &  129yds at Huntingdon; and 2011 winner Bensalem had run 2nd to Diamond Harry (subsequent 2010 Hennessey GC winner off OR156) over 2m7f & 86yds at Newbury, and had then fallen in this race in 2010 when looking the winner, then campaigned over hurdles to protect his chase rating.

Those that fail the 3-mile test are: Fanion D'Estruval; Adamantly Chosen; I Am Maximus; Fastorslow; The Goffer; Tea Clipper; Nassalam; Karl Philippe

Happygolucky, 2nd in this race in 2021, meets this criteria, but whether he retains his ability after a long injury break is taken on trust. Remastered also ticks the box on stamina but, on a career-high rating at 10yo, has age against him. The Big Breakaway has stamina to burn, and with his best runs on soft ground, and being a prominent runner, this 8yo goes on the shortlist. Threeunderthrufive was a selection of mine for this last year, but went for the "Broadway" instead (ran 6th of 9); his form this season has not been the same. Our Power is an improving 8yo, but he's running off 9lb higher than when 5th last year, and that may be too much. Into Overdrive won the 3-mile Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and that was his 5th win in 6 races, and he's not stopped improving. The form of that race was franked by Sounds Russian who ran 2nd in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day. He won't want it too soft, but he's a prominent runner, and this 8yo goes on the shortlist. Corach Rambler won this last year but he's not raced since 4th in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessey) and he's not a horse that goes well fresh. Cloudy Glen will need a career-best to win this off OR145, but it's likely that he won't be far away as he ran 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2021. Another interesting candidate is Farinet who won the Welsh National Trial over 3-mile at Chepstow in December. The extra distance found him out here on New Years' Day but he looks on a fair mark of OR142. Death Duty stayed on into 6th in this race last year off OR144, which came off the back of winning the National Trial at Punchestown. He ran 2nd in that race last month and runs off OR141 in the Ultima so he has place chances. Top Ville Ben was a class horse 4 seasons ago (won the Rowland Meyrick off OR154) and ran his best race in a long time LTO when 3rd in Ireland over an inadequate 2m5f. He is the sort who could put in an eye-catching run, and goes on the shortlist despite being 11yo. The novice Monbeg Genius has won his last 3 races and is clearly on the upgrade; guaranteed a run should he go to post, he goes on the shortlist.

Others to note from the "non 3-mile winners":-

The Goffer fails the 3-mile test, but he's improving and a LTO winner trained by Gordon Elliott.

Tea Clipper was 4th in this race last year, just beating Our Power, and they met again at Ascot over 3-miles in October when Tea Clipper was 3rd behind Our Power. They meet on 'levels' in this race, which puts Tea Clipper 9lb better-off, and I reckon Tea Clipper will easily beat Our Power in this race. 

Shortlist

The Big Breakaway @ 16/1 (Skybet) - I really like the chances of this one

Into Overdrive @ 8/1 - odds are too short

Farinet @ 40/1 (available generally) at these odds you have to be on

Monbeg Genius @ 14/1

Tea Clipper - was advised at 16's; so 20/1 with William Hill NRNB looks value

Advice:

The Big Breakaway - £5 eachway @ 16/1 (NRNB 5-places 5th odds Skybet)

Farinet - £5 eachway @ 40/1 (NRNB 5-places 5th odds Bet365)

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 4

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) LOST 

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

Champion Hurdle: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 & Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked

NH Chase: Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior / Broadway: Gerri Colombe & Thyme Hill / 

Ryanair: Shishkin (banker) 

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Total Staked to Date: £130 (Note: £20 returned NRNB)

We had the 5-day declarations for the 2nd day of the Festival yesterday (Thurs 9th) and the main impact on the portfolio is that Impaire Et Passe remains in the Ballymore Hurdle, and is almost certain to run in that race for which he's the 7/4 fav. This is a bit of a blow, as I think he'd go close in the Supreme Hurdle and we hold a 10/1 voucher on that race. Fingers crossed that Il Etait Temps runs for us in the Supreme.  Mullins has a stranglehold on the novice hurdles, and he probably has 4 potential winners of the Ballymore to choose from. Another odd declaration was Mighty Potter in the "Broadway" over 3-mile, because if he runs in this race then he wont be able to run in the "Turners" on Thursday, a race for which he's a strong fav to win.  There are a lot of double-entries in the "Broadway", and I expect this race to cut-up which could prove advantageous to Thunder Rock: I can't see him winning this but he could sneak 3rd. There are no surprises in the QM Champion Chase, but with only 9 declared (and likely all going to post) then it's "fingers crossed" that my long-odds trebles (see my blog of 31Dec) involving (QMCC) Nube Negra; (Ryanair) Shiskin & Conflated; (Stayers' Hurdle) Flooring Porter; and (Gold Cup) Stattler come to fruition. 

Onto Day-3, Thursday and the day starts with...

Turners Novice Chase (Grade 1) over 2m4f

With 14 horses standing their ground, this race is taking more shape than some others. It pays to have a horse that has some jumping experience at Graded level. There have been some absolutely top-class winners of this race, and the market is usually reflective of the chances of contenders. Mighty Potter heads the betting as the 5/4 fav, and there appears to be no chink in his armour, which is good for readers of the blog as we have him at 7/2 and in a double with the "Arkle" fav El Fabiolo. What can beat him? I will be surprised if any of the other Irish-trained entries can get close, although I will respect the chance of Sir Gerhard (who won the Ballymore hurdle last year) if he takes part. Pay attention to the "Broadway" chase on Wednesday, as if Gerri Colombe and Thunder Rock do well in that, it will give the form of Balco Coastal - who split them at Sandown LTO - a big boost. Another to keep an eye on is Stage Star, who won over this C&D in January with 12st pretty much making-all. He was well fancied for the Ballymore last year, but pulled-up; even so I'd say he has the potential to win a race like this.

Pertemps Final H'cap Hurdle over 3-miles

There's only 28 runners to consider, and a max of 24 can go to post, so rather than speculate I'm going straight into form assessment. Remember, I posted last years 25/1 winner Third Wind on the morning of the race! These 3-mile handicap hurdles take a certain type of horse to win, and strong form-lines can be overlooked. 

Ryanair Chase over 2m5f

Cheltenham experience is a must when seeking the winner of this race, and the betting is a good guide with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at odds no longer than 9/2. Readers of the blog will hopefully be cheering on Shishkin as he completes the final leg of a successful winning treble; he looks near unbeatable in this race based on his win LTO at Ascot.  He may not have many rivals to contend with, as Blue Lord will likely go for the QMCC; Conflated for the Gold Cup; and I will be surprised if Chancun Pour Soi runs. What will follow Shishkin home? Janadil was 2nd last year, but benefitted from the fall of Conflated 2-out. Fury Road just isn't quick enough when it matters; and I'm not sure about Envoi Allen - he could be 160+ or maybe he just made the most of an opportunity when winning at Dromore in November? I think French Dynamite is under-estimated here: he was just btn by Ga Law in the Paddy Power h'cap giving the winner 6lb; he clearly didn't stay 3-mile when running in the Grade 1 Savills Chase on 28Dec; and had he not been impeded LTO by the faller (Haut En Couleurs) I think he'd have btn Fakir D'oudairies - in which case he'd be 2nd fav for this race. Sure, Ga Law is improving, but so is French Dynamite and I think he is the better horse. By-the-bye, both of these horses are well-handicapped at the moment, and I'm not sure why they are not contesting one of the handicaps instead. Given that Shishkin is +10lb better than anything else in the race, it's pointless having an antepost wager for something destined (barring a cruel twist of fate) to run 2nd or 3rd. Better to wait until the day and play a straight forecast.

Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles

This year we have one of the most open, and murkiest, Stayers' Hurdles since 2018. I know Lisnagar Oscar won at 50/1 in 2020 but let's be honest, that was a strange race which should have been won by Paisley Park who, both before and after the race, was the best staying hurdler around. We have 15 entries as of this afternoon, with a couple of supplemented runners: Gold Tweet was expected, but what is Mullins planning with entering Asterion Forlonge? I can only think Mullins is giving the owners of Asterion (who also own Shishkin) the opportunity to "enjoy" their Ryanair win by remaining in the paddock area after the presentation. As for Gold Tweet, do not under-estimate this horse: he comes here worthy of a place on merit. Current fav in what has been a very fluid betting market, is Blazing Khal who - to be frank - isn't worthy of the position based on beating Meet And Greet over 2m5f LTO. That was his 1st race in 14mths, so he may come on for it, or he may "bounce". Marie's Rock is untried at 3-mile, and I feel she may go for the Mares' Hurdle instead for which she has a great chance of holding onto her crown having won that race last year. Teahopoo needs the mud; he may have it, but it's more likely that by Thursday and running on fresh ground that he won't. Home By The Lee was easily beaten in this race last year, and I don't think he's improved since but that he's been flattered by some indifferent performances by his rivals. I admit Flooring Porter looked a sad shadow of himself LTO, but he's won from the front twice before in this race, and I feel if he runs on the day then he will be capable of a good effort. Klassical Dream is another who has been beaten when meeting the very best at this trip, and he had nothing more to give when 5th last year. Paisley Park at 11yo is a spent force. When 3rd last year in the 2m5f Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle, Ashdale Bob ran the race of his life; he looks capable of a bold bid if the ground isn't too soft, as I think on better ground he may have btn Home By The Lee LTO at Leopardstown over 3-miles. After Gold Tweet winning here in January, you cannot ignore the French-trained Henri Le Farceur, but he will come into this race off a break of 103 days which is a negative. He may have chased home Gold Tweet LTO, but it will take a career-best from the horse at 10yo for Dashel Drasher to win. I'm leaning towards Flooring Porter as he's done it twice before and he looks the only one capable of a 160+ performance if he comes right on the day. IF push come to shove, right now I'd be on one of the youngest horses in the race, who we know has winning form at Cheltenham and stays the trip: Gold Tweet. If he was trained at Lambourn he'd be the 7/2 fav for this race, yet there is plenty of 12/1 available NRNB.

Advised wager: GOLD TWEET - £5 eachway @ 12/1 (generally available, NRNB)

The day ends with a couple of handicaps; the Kim Muir over 3m2f, and the "Plate" over 2m4f & 127 yds, which I will hold off reviewing for now as there are too many entries in both races to consider. The  Mares' Novices Hurdle is not the sort of race I want to get involved in.

I will be back tomorrow with another instalment. 

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 3

The 5-days declarations for the opening day were posted at lunchtime today (Wed 08Mar) and there are a few non-runners in my antepost wagers. As expected, Mighty Potter is a NR for the Arkle as he's the fav for the "Turners" on Day-3; so that's £5 lost. Also in the Arkle, my eachway wagers on Boothill and Sir Gerhard are both NR's, but these wagers a NRNB so the stakes totalling £20 are refunded. The main wagers on Impaire Et Passe & Il Etait Temps (Supreme Hurdle), El Fabiolo (Arkle), and Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior (NH Chase) all all still "live".

Onto Day 2, and it starts with a couple of top novice races. Remember, this is a 4-day meeting with 28 races and you cannot possibly have an angle on every one.  Pick and choose your targets, and sometimes there isn't a wager worth having, like in the Champion Hurdle were unless you had a significant wager on Constitution Hill sometime last summer at odds of 2/1 then all you are looking for is finding the placed horses, and that can be tricky for very little reward.

Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f

Possibly the most influential novice hurdle at the Festival, this still has an enormous number of entries and I'm not tempted to consider a wager until the weekend when we will know a) what is most likely to run, and b) the likely ground.  I'm not convinced that Hermes Allen (trained by Paul Nicholls) is good enough to win this, but Mullins has a hatful of horses to choose from - and he usually leaves it late to make his final choice for this race.

Old Brown Advisory Novices Chase (Broadway) over 3-miles & 80yds

I like this race, mainly as it takes some winning and the form is usually a good guide to finding the winner. This year we have a fav in Gerri Colombe who looks like he might not be outclassed were he in the Gold Cup on Friday.  He does have to test him stamina at this trip, but he looks more than capable. The 2nd fav, The Real Whacker, has won both his chase starts but the strength of the form in those races is debateable, and I think his odds could take a walk on the day. If you fancy his chances, then I would wait until the day of the race and leave your wager late.  Sir Gerhard holds an entry for this race, but I really can't see him running on what will be only his 2nd chase race, and the "Turners" (if he does run) is more suitable. As such, I think Thyme Hill could go off the 2nd-fav at around 7/2, and we know he stays the trip, jumps well, and handles the course - and readers are on him at an average of 15/2. Don't underestimate Stage Star (Nicholls) who should ensure a proper test of stamina , as will the consistent Thunder Rock. No further wagers in this race until the day.

Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle over 2m5f

At the time of writing there are still 87 entered, so expect a full compliment of starters in this race which has a maximum of 26 going to post.  I will hang on for a few days.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

This is being billed as another "match" as it was last year, only this time Energumene is meeting Edwardstone. Last year, readers of the blog were on Energumene at the extremely generous odds of 4/1 and scooped a massive win. This year the race does not offer the same value. To be honest, if Energumene runs his best form then there's not much between the leading pair. Their conqueror at Cheltenham in January was Editeur Du Gite, but will he be allowed to dominate the race again, I doubt it. One that could surprise them is Gentleman De Mee, but only if he improves another 7lb and I'm not sure he can. I can't see any value in this race, I think the betting has it just about right. 

Cross Country Chase over 3m6f

Another race that I don't think should be run at the Festival.

Grand Annual H'Cap Chase over 2-miles

This is a tricky race, and one which usually sparks a gamble or two in the market. I think the Mullins trained Saint Roi could be the gamble, as he's entered for the Arkle and was presumably aimed at the race, but isn't good enough - so he will end up in this race by default. Keep an eye on Riviere D'Etel trained by Gordon Elliott: he was well fancied for the Arkle last year, and has a touch of class about him, yet he's running off OR149.

Champion Bumper over 2-miles

Another race that I avoid.

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 2

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised

Arkle: SIR GERHARD - £5 ew NRNB @ 14/1 (Bet365 & PaddyPower)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Arkle: BOOTHILL - £5 eachway @ 40/1 (NRNB - Skybet & Paddy Power)

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 

and Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Total Staked to Date: £140

My proposed antepost portfolio is confirmed above, all these wagers have been written into the blog since 1st January. There's a couple that were speculative that are already losers: Mighty Potter in the Arkle (£5 @ 25/1), and probably Boothill also in the Arkle (£5 ew @ 40/1) but that stake is returned as it's NRNB.  I must admit that I'm feeling fairly confident about returning a profit from the antepost wagers.  I know it's exciting to place speculative doubles and trebles, but I've felt confident about the ability of Mighty Potter as a novice chaser since early December, and maybe if I'd lumped the lot on him at 7/2 for the "Turners" in early January that may have been the best policy.

The opening day continues with the Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87yds.

For the winner you cannot look anywhere else but Constitution Hill. He probably could have won this race last season as a novice hurdler (has any novice ever tried?), and he looks 10lb better than anything else in the race. There is no real point in considering stats for this race, as invariably the best horse wins the race: it is always a true test.

The Irish challenge is from State Man who won the County Hurdle last year looking every inch a potential Champion hurdle horse, but he just isn't in the same league as the fav. I'm surprised Vauban is entered as this 5yo is clearly behind his stablemate State Man, and I expect he is in the race for the experience. 

Nicky Henderson reckons the mare Epatante is better than ever, and if she is (she was 2^nd in this race last year) then she should finish in front of Vauban. However, do not ignore I Like To Move It; he’s improved rapidly since going hurdling, just failing to win the Betfair H’cap off OR138, then winning the Greatwood H’cap off OR142 in November, and LTO smashing the Grade 2 “Kingwell” at Wincanton last month. He looks as good as State Man based on that performance LTO, and the only downside I can see is that he flopped in the County Hurdle (won by State Man) last year.  On form, the ”value” is trying to find the 3^rd-placed horse on the day, and that looks between Epatante and I Like To Move It, and I prefer the latter given he’s a C&D winner and that he could be the 2^nd best horse in the race and is currently available at 16/1 with Paddy Power & William Hill could be extremely good value in a race which could have only 6 or 7 starters.

Advice: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill

Mares’ hurdle 2m4f

Not my favourite race as the winner usually only needs to have a rating better than OR150. Fair enough to give mares’ a chance with a 7lb allowance against the geldings, but a mares' only race isn’t a championship race in my opinion.  Honeysuckle is due to take part, and I think she’s vulnerable. Her form this season has been decent for a mare but is definitely below “Honeysuckle” peak. If Marie’s Rock runs in this – and not the Stayers’ Hurdle over 3-mile – I believe she will take all the beating; she’s running around 155-158 which is about 5lb better than Honeysuckle. Brandy Love does not look good enough, and I feel Echoes In Rain is both not good enough and this isn’t her trip. More interesting is Love Envoi who was a Festival winner in 2022, and I think she has improved since – but although she’s not as good as Marie’s Rock she can give Honeysuckle a race. Queens Brook has potential to be placed, but that depends on which mares run in the race. 

My idea of the 1, 2, 3 is 1^st Marie’s Rock, 2^nd Love Envoi, 3^rd Honeysuckle; but if Marie’s Rock goes for the Stayers’ Hurdle then Love Envoi at odds of 7/1 looks a value wager, but perhaps not the value of I Like To Move It in the Champion Hurdle.   

Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over 2-mile & 87yds

There is no way I'm going to spend time at this stage trying to find the winner of this race, as 6 of the last 10 winners have been sent off at odds of 25/1 or longer - Jeff Kidder won at 80/1 in 2021.

National Hunt Chase over 3m 6f

This can be one of the most informative races of the Festival having been won by Cause Of Causes, Minella Rocco, and Tiger Roll, and also  produced a couple of recent Gold Cup winner Native River (2nd in 2016). Of the last 16 winners, 14 had already won at 3-mile or further, and 10 of the last 13 winner had already run at Cheltenham. The top-3 on official ratings also have an excellent record in this race, and I have in the past just recommended having a wager on the horse with the highest official rating.  Not this year as, to be absolutely honest here: I can't see why Gaillard Du Mesnil is such a hot fav in this race. He will likely have the highest rating of OR155, but for me he lacks zip - just as Run Wild Fred rated OR156 did last year, and he ran 2nd  to Stattler rated OR153. Ramilies has not looked a convincing chaser, and he didn't look a convincing 3-miler hurdler either. Chemical Energy was the fav for this race until recently, but he ran a stinker on 29Jan and it's difficult to erase that run from the mind.  I have already advise antepost wagers on the pair Churchstonewarrior and Mahler Mission who fought out the finish of a 3-mile Grade 2 Chase on 12Feb, and that form looks rock solid, and this pair look to be still improving. I don't think City Chief (in the same ownership of Ramilies and Gaillard Du Mesnil) rated OR142 is good enough, and the same applies to his stable companion Mister Coffey rated OR145.  When you look at the entries, this race lacks depth which probably explains the betting. I would expect a fair amount of movement in the betting on the day, and while I expect Gaillard Du Mesnil to go off the fav, I don't expect him to win this race.

So then, just the one addition to the antepost portfolio: I LIKE TO MOVE IT in the Champion Hurdle.