The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 3

The 5-days declarations for the opening day were posted at lunchtime today (Wed 08Mar) and there are a few non-runners in my antepost wagers. As expected, Mighty Potter is a NR for the Arkle as he's the fav for the "Turners" on Day-3; so that's £5 lost. Also in the Arkle, my eachway wagers on Boothill and Sir Gerhard are both NR's, but these wagers a NRNB so the stakes totalling £20 are refunded. The main wagers on Impaire Et Passe & Il Etait Temps (Supreme Hurdle), El Fabiolo (Arkle), and Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior (NH Chase) all all still "live".

Onto Day 2, and it starts with a couple of top novice races. Remember, this is a 4-day meeting with 28 races and you cannot possibly have an angle on every one.  Pick and choose your targets, and sometimes there isn't a wager worth having, like in the Champion Hurdle were unless you had a significant wager on Constitution Hill sometime last summer at odds of 2/1 then all you are looking for is finding the placed horses, and that can be tricky for very little reward.

Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f

Possibly the most influential novice hurdle at the Festival, this still has an enormous number of entries and I'm not tempted to consider a wager until the weekend when we will know a) what is most likely to run, and b) the likely ground.  I'm not convinced that Hermes Allen (trained by Paul Nicholls) is good enough to win this, but Mullins has a hatful of horses to choose from - and he usually leaves it late to make his final choice for this race.

Old Brown Advisory Novices Chase (Broadway) over 3-miles & 80yds

I like this race, mainly as it takes some winning and the form is usually a good guide to finding the winner. This year we have a fav in Gerri Colombe who looks like he might not be outclassed were he in the Gold Cup on Friday.  He does have to test him stamina at this trip, but he looks more than capable. The 2nd fav, The Real Whacker, has won both his chase starts but the strength of the form in those races is debateable, and I think his odds could take a walk on the day. If you fancy his chances, then I would wait until the day of the race and leave your wager late.  Sir Gerhard holds an entry for this race, but I really can't see him running on what will be only his 2nd chase race, and the "Turners" (if he does run) is more suitable. As such, I think Thyme Hill could go off the 2nd-fav at around 7/2, and we know he stays the trip, jumps well, and handles the course - and readers are on him at an average of 15/2. Don't underestimate Stage Star (Nicholls) who should ensure a proper test of stamina , as will the consistent Thunder Rock. No further wagers in this race until the day.

Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle over 2m5f

At the time of writing there are still 87 entered, so expect a full compliment of starters in this race which has a maximum of 26 going to post.  I will hang on for a few days.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

This is being billed as another "match" as it was last year, only this time Energumene is meeting Edwardstone. Last year, readers of the blog were on Energumene at the extremely generous odds of 4/1 and scooped a massive win. This year the race does not offer the same value. To be honest, if Energumene runs his best form then there's not much between the leading pair. Their conqueror at Cheltenham in January was Editeur Du Gite, but will he be allowed to dominate the race again, I doubt it. One that could surprise them is Gentleman De Mee, but only if he improves another 7lb and I'm not sure he can. I can't see any value in this race, I think the betting has it just about right. 

Cross Country Chase over 3m6f

Another race that I don't think should be run at the Festival.

Grand Annual H'Cap Chase over 2-miles

This is a tricky race, and one which usually sparks a gamble or two in the market. I think the Mullins trained Saint Roi could be the gamble, as he's entered for the Arkle and was presumably aimed at the race, but isn't good enough - so he will end up in this race by default. Keep an eye on Riviere D'Etel trained by Gordon Elliott: he was well fancied for the Arkle last year, and has a touch of class about him, yet he's running off OR149.

Champion Bumper over 2-miles

Another race that I avoid.

Super Saturday for Paul Nicholls

The 423rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Today we have what looks to be a cracking days racing over the jumps with top-class meetings at Ascot and Haydock, plus another at Wincanton.
At Ascot, I like the look of the mares hurdle at 2:05 as the market is made by the fav Kentford Grey Lady who looked very impressive when winning LTO. Ordinarily, I would go for the fav but the fact that VIOLIN DAVIS who was 3rd that day is returning for a rematch looks interesting. This race is quite likely to be a severe test of stamina with Kaffie likely to make the pace strong thru’out. I can’t have the Irish challenger Our Girl Salley as I reckon the going will not be soft enough for her, and she’s trying 3-mile for the first time. VIOLIN DAVIS at 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power) looks a fair wager, as I’d be happy with 3/1.

The handicap hurdle at 2:35 was a race in which I was hoping to see BOBBY EWING return to the track. Look him up, his form suggests his OR139 hurdle rating is ludicrously low and I can see this horse winning a top hurdle handicap on his return. However, he misses this race and so I have to look elsewhere, and CICERON who won LTO looks the best value at 11/2. Alan King’s Smad Place looks over-rated at OR144 (I’d have him about 7lb less) and A Bridge Too Far has already been shown lacking at this step-up in trip wont help. Both Joseph Lister and Shoreacres want further than 2m3f, and I can’t really see Torpichen (also trained by Alan King) being involved off OR142, and Royal Charm is on a recovery mission in this. Going right-handed could well help Pateese show improved form, but again his mark of OR138 looks a tad high and the going is also possibly too lively for him. CICERON won LTO in a very fast time beating a well-handicapped rival into 2nd and has only been raised 7lb to OR136. Considering he won at Taunton off OR135 last February, this is well within his grasp and he should be less than 3/1 for this.

The Victor Chandler Chase revolves around Al Ferof who, if he’s as good as Paul Nicholls reckons, will win this. Last March, he won what looks to have been a very strong Supreme Novices Hurdle and if it comes to a test of speed after the final fence then he’ll take some beating. However, both Al Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow are up against half-a-dozen high class chasers and any flaws in their jumping ability at speed will be exposed. As such, I cannot have Finian’s Rainbow whose jumping has never been convincing and was fortunate to be 2nd in what looks to have been a sub-standard Arkle last March. SOMERSBY is the highest rated horse in the race by 4lbs and is game and consistent. He will either relish this drop in trip from the 3-mile of the King George (was well there till after 4-out) or he may find things happening too quickly. Wishful Thinking has never looked a natural 2-mile chaser. As for Gauvain, all his best form is usually in the autumn, and he was stuffed in this race last season. He has been made the Pricewise selection so the 8/1 has gone and he’s best-priced at 6/1 generally now. You cannot really take the chances of the other runners seriously as they are well below the standard required to win. SOMERSBY at 11/2 is worthy of a small wager and I’d be very happy if he could win, but I reckon he’ll be seen at his best in the Ryanair at the Festival. As such, I’m strongly tempted by the 100/30 on AL FEROF (William Hill).

Ascot’s card is tremendous and the 3:45 is another exciting race. I could easily name half the field as having realistic chances and with 15 going to post, so only 3 places available, it is too tight a heat; altho’ SA SUFFIT is a horse who looks well handicapped and if the going is softer than advertised he could go well. The 2-mile trip was too short for his LTO even so he was bang there at the finish, and before that he had no chance against Always Right at Kelso over 3-mile on 4th December. He may not have the class to win this but at 14/1 (so long as the going is soft) he is a solid eachway chance.

Unfortunately for Haydock who hold the Peter Marsh Chase, the going there is heavy, and I can see there being more than a few non-runners. I never like betting on heavy going so I’m giving the meeting a miss.

Wincanton has better going, and the class 3 chase at 2:10 could be an interesting opening for ALDERTUNE. Only 3 of the 13 runners are aged under 10yo, so they are all in the main well-exposed and holding no secrets from the handicapper. As such, I reckon the winner will come from one of the other 3 of ALDERTUNE, Zarrafakt and Diamond Brook. I think this 3m1f trip will be too much for Zarrafakt who is probably best at 2m6f. Diamond Brook looks one-paced at this sort of trip and he needs to show improvement. As for ALDERTUNE, he was well thought of as a hurdler by Nicholls and he really should have won more races (has come 2nd 6 times in 15 starts). His form has worked out well this season, especially his close 4th in the Southern National to Giles Cross. LTO he hated the heavy going, but he’s been well rested since then with a 7 week break, and he can improve enough to take this race at rewarding odds.

Selections:
Ascot 2:35, CICERON, 1pt win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:10, AL FEROF, 1pt win @ 100/30 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
These are my early wagers, tho’ depending on how the ground is, there could well be an additional wagers on both SA SUFFIT (14/1 with Paddy Power, BOG) and ALDERTUNE (12/1 with Corals).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?

The 383rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.

Let’s get straight to it, shall we?

I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.

At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.

My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.

I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.

If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).

Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Value to be had in Gold Cup market

The 369th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day of racing yesterday and altho’ I was not able to give readers a winner, I was pretty damn close. The big disappointment of the day was DIAMOND HARRY not running in the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby as he was lame. However, I did write that WEIRD AL was an interesting entry as he also held an entry for the 3-mile h’cap chase at Ascot and so, as such, he was my eachway selection in the race. WEIRD AL looked totally in-command throughout the whole race, for me it was an exemplary performance. First time out last season, WEIRD AL ran a cracker of a race when deat-heating with subsequent Paddy Power winner Little Josh – a performance I rated at 161. My rating of him for yesterday’s race was 160+ and I’ve settled on 163. That therefore puts him within striking distance of LONG RUN who’s winning performance in the Gold Cup I rated at 170 (on a line thru’ the 4th placed What A Friend).

WEIRD AL was one of my Alert List horses last season and my long-term Gold Cup selection. Admittedly, he did run down the field behind Long Run in the Gold Cup after a long lay-off thru’ injury having finished down the field in the Hennessey. He was reported to have bled in the Gold Cup and while that may have seriously affected his form that day, in my opinion he has yet to prove that he’ll stay that trip. If he were my horse, I’d give the Hennessey a miss and go for the either the King George on Boxing Day (for which he is at 14/1), or the Cotswold in January at Cheltenham’s trial meeting. Time For Rupert in 2nd yesterday gave a big boost the the form of the RSA at Cheltenham and the Irish 2nd-season chasers should not be underestimated. WEIRD AL is 20/1 for the Gold Cup and that looks good for an eachway antepost punt (small money) as he loves Cheltenham. But, if he is at 20’s what about the value with the Irish horses? Quito De La Roque is 25’s as is Bostons Angel, and Jessie’s Dream is 40/1.

At Ascot, my selection TAKEROC never looked happy and perhaps this race came too quick for him as he won last weekend at Aintree. Statistically, horses that have run well (ie placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd) and run again within 7-days over both codes (jumps and flat) do well, more so those that have won LTO. As such, I’ll give TAKEROC another chance as he was running respectably off OR148 in the Spring of 2010. Being a winner over 2-mile at Sandown, I don’t think Ascot being a stiff right-handed track, was the reason for his lack-lustre display. His jockey, 7lb claimer Harry Derham won the next race on Brampour with a peach of a ride, and he is a real find and I am sure Paul Nicholls will exploit his 7lb claim efficiently.

My other Ascot selection, MUIRHEAD, was given what I consider was a poor ride in such a hot handicap chase. With 4 to jump he was still well off the pace and altho’ he was hampered at that fence by a faller, it made no difference. With a more positive ride he should recoup the loss, but it was a disappointing result. I also took my eye of the ball in this race as the eventual winner EXMOOR RANGER was on a cracking handicap mark of OR137 considering he ran well off OR145 in the same race last year and ran well off OR144 at the Festival in March. After he was 2nd to Sandown specialist Monkerhostin in Feb 2010 off OR142, he was in my notebook, but before yesterday he had not won since. He can win again.

Today, as much as I am a fan of Qhilimar, he can be upset today by HUMBIE, a 3-parts brother to Denman who got his act together LTO and looks well treated on OR122 in the 2:40 at Carlisle, tho’ the odds are not great.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Please register your interest - thanks!

The 358th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!

For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.

Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).

I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.

Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.

The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

BALTHAZAR KING another winner for the blog

The 357th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A good day for the blog yesterday with a good winner in BATHAZAR KING at an SP of 11/4 (advised at 7/2). The selection looked very leniently treated on OR136 based on his run at this meeting last year when 3rd to Chicago Grey (Balthazar King was 14lb better-off, for a 6-length beating) and he probably would have been only beaten a length or two when they met at level weights last November and Chicago Grey fell at the 2nd-last fence. I rate BATHAZAR KING at 146 on last season’s form, and he won like a 146 horse running-off OR136 today – he had a lot in-hand.

EDGEBRIAR, my other selection, was a disappointment. He was very keen early-on and basically ran out of energy so that, by the top of the hill on the 2nd circuit, when the leader Billie Magern quickened-up the pace EDGEBRIAR had nothing left in the tank and quickly folded. Not sure what to make of this; was the horse fit enough? He should have been, so perhaps there was another reason. As for Billie Magern, he was the horse I considered the “danger” to my selection and perhaps I should have advised a split-stake and had ½pt on both – but it is always easier in hindsight!

ONE FOR JOULES was running a big race till falling at the final flight. She would not have won, but I am sure she would have been 2nd, albeit well beaten by the impressive winner Kalaan.

Onto Ascot, and how Fame And Glory was sent off at odds of 3/1 when he was sent off to win the Ascot Gold Cup in June – just 4 months ago – as the 11/8 fav, is beyond me. Yes, he had looked disappointing in his latest run in the Irish St Leger, but he was proven on this course and on this going and was no worse off at the weights than at Royal Ascot in June. It was a lost opportunity.

FRANKEL was duly crowned the best racehorse in training in the World following his victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Apparently, Timeform have rated him at 143, and Racing Post Ratings at 139 (their highest ever rating since inception in 1988). Me? If 2nd-placed Excelebration ran to his OR126 rating (and I don’t think he did) then FRANKEL would be rated OR134. FRANKEL went into the race with a rating of OR135, and I don’t think he had to beat that to win today, nor did he look like he had a few pounds up his sleeve.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2 wins from 3 selections yesterday

The 356th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day for the blog yesterday, I hope you all took note of the 3 horses that I put up:
2:45, THAT’LL DO – won well at odds of 15/8 (advised at 11/4)
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – also won well at the tremendous odds of 8/1 (was 5/s in the morning)
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – ran a stinker, maybe ground was too quick for him.

Due to these results and all my recent blogs on the jumps racing which has seen me put-up winners at 14/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 15/8 from a handful of selections, I am going to change my advice policy. From now on ALL named horses will be posted-up as selections and included within my stats on Betting League and Tip Exchange.

TRAFFIC ARTICLE came off my private Alert List and this list is already proving profitable. I know (without bragging) that I can spot improving and under-rated horses over the jumps that go on and win NTO (next-time-out) at decent odds. My alert list will provide the backbone of my selections this jumps season.

Onto today, and we have Champions Day at Ascot. The Champion Stakes itself has been a good race for me recently as I have been a follower of TWICE OVER and he’s done me proud. He has shown himself as good as ever this season, and I believe that he handles this Ascot 10-furlong track and trip (based on his close 2nd in the Prince Of Wales to Byword in 2010). As such, current odds of 12/1 are in my opinion far too long, and I find it hard to see him finishing outside the 1st-3 in a race that has been his target all year.

At Cheltenham, the opening 3-mile novice hurdle looks competitive. I’ll not advise a selection in the race, but if the Paul Nicholls trained ROUND TOM get’s longer than 8/1 then I’ll be having a small wager on him, probably a back-to-lay (back at 9.20, lay-off at 4.60 to double investment).

Next on the card, the 2m4f class 2 h’cap chase, has cut-up due to the quick going and only 8 go to post. There will be some pace on from Billie Magern and he could take some catching as he stays 3-mile, but I think he will be caught as the pace and going should suit last year’s winner EDGEBRIAR who comes into this race just 1lb higher than the rating he won off last year. At 13/2, he looks a value wager.

The class 2 novice hurdle has one from my alert list in ONE FOR JOULES. He won easily LTO with 11st 10lb on his back and tho’ she may be outclassed by these today, she is proven race-fit and has the form in the book whereas the others still have it to prove. I think odds of 6/1 are fair value.

There are more non-runners in the 3m class 2 h’cap chase and that means the odds have contracted somewhat. But I feel that BALTHAZAR KING is on a lenient mark of OR136, not only that but he has winning form at Cheltenham and will love this going. At odds of 7/2 he looks value, but only just.

I cannot see a worthy selection at Kelso.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:40, EDGEBRIAR, 1pt win at 13/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 3:50, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win at 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Richard Hughes quits over new whip rules

The 355th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The devastating news that top jockey Richard Hughes has handed-in his license after receiving a 10-day ban (his 2nd ban of the week on top of a 4-day ban he received on Monday) for infringing the new whip rules, is mind boggling.

This is the same Richard Hughes who has received just 2, 1-day bans for riding infringements in the past 3 years (Frankie Dettori, take note).

I think the penalties for whip infringements are severe, too severe in my opinion. The rules have completely changed the way horses are ridden and (in some ways) are at-odds with the rules of racing which have applied for the past couple of hundred years. I would have though a 3-month probationary period for the rules with only 1-day bans applied for infringements would have allowed everyone to learn and appreciate the way forward. It would also have allowed the rules to be tweaked without receiving criticism for going backwards.

What I do know is that I reckon I have lost money on at least one wager this week on a horse that should have won but who’s jockey did not use their whip on the run-in for fear of infringing the rules. What it means for punters is that we have to value resolution and gameness in horses a lot more – quirky horses will be too risky to follow.

Another unfortunate result of Richard Hughes’ actions is that he’s gone “live” on radio and not done horseracing in general a good deed. He was clearly too emotional about yesterday’s events and he should have taken his complaints directly to the BHA and aired them in that private sphere, not in public. If he’d received short-shrift from the BHA, then he should have gone public, but then he would have possibly been able to provide a more reasoned argument to the general public. Instead, it is now “them & us”, and the general public are thinking jockeys want to be allowed to whip horses at the races – and this only months after the headlines were grabbed by an elephant being hit with a broom by his handler.

I fear that horseracing in the UK will soon go the way of greyhound coursing and fox-hunting.

Onto today’s action, and we have the opening meeting of the jumps season at Cheltenham. But first, I was right yesterday about DE VALIRA who held onto 3rd spot for the place money. This looked a top novice chase, and I would put the 1st-2 finishers into your notebook – LUCKY WILLIAM and WHODOYOUTHINK.

The racing at Cheltenham has cut-up probably due to the going being on the quick side. There are a couple I like the look of, but the odds about them are not great, so I’m not offering them up as selections. They are:-
2:45, THAT’LL DO – could be one of Paul Nicholls better novice chasers, he’s 11/4 with Corals.
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – Elliot’s chasers cannot be overlooked, he’s 5/1 with Vic Chandler.
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – I was impressed by this one LTO, he’s 6/1 generally.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Good meeting at Ascot today

The 346th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

One of the best weekends sport in ages. Rugby, Football, Horseracing, Rugby League – you name it, this weekend has it!

At Ascot, the opening Group 3 “Cornwallis” for 2yo’s over 5-furlongs is a great pointer for next season’s sprinter types. Have your notebook handy. Next up, and we have the return of last year’s St Leger winner ARCTIC COSMOS. He’s been aimed at the Arc de Triomphe all year, and it’s only because the going is not fast enough for him that he’s not at Longchamp. He won’t run in this unless he’s fit to do the biz, and he’s a proper Group 1 horse in a Group 3 race. In my opinion (IMO) he should start odds-on for this, so anything longer than 6/4 is worth having, as such I have taken already the 5/2 offered by William Hill on Friday evening. With an autumn campaign in mind tho’, he won’t be given a hard race so I cannot make him a firm selection for the blog.

If GENKI cannot win the 3:15, a Group 3 over 6-furlongs, then it will be a decent horse that beats him. Currently 7/2 generally, that looks fair value.

The 7-furlong h’cap looks a cracker of a race. You could easily name half-a-dozen, and Smarty Socks is in peak form having won over C&D LTO. But HAWKEYETHENOO has the going he loves for the first time since winning the Victoria Cup over C&D in May this year. He also has Kieren Fallon in the saddle and looks weighted well on OR104, but this looks a tough race to call as it’s filled with rock solid handicappers.

Next on the card is the Rous Stakes over 5-furlongs and I’ll pass this race over for easier pickings. In the Listed race at 5:00, I had a wager on RAINFALL when she failed to stay a mile LTO. She won this race over 7-furlongs last season, and she should have far too much ability for this field. As such, odds of 7/2 generally look good to me.

At Ripon, nothing catches my eye other than HIDDEN GLORY in the 5:45. This horse has won twice off OR83 and wasn’t beaten far by Beachfire (no less) of OR78. Yet, here he is on OR69 with going and trip in his favour, why? Because he is being held-up in his races when he needs to run prominently. Will this be the day of return to favoured tactics?

I can’t see anything of interest at Newmarket.

The jumps racing card at Fontwell looks interesting, but Fontwell isn’t one of my favourite tracks as being a “figure-of-eight” for chases and a sharp track for hurdles, it can be too tight for some horses.

Selections:
Ascot 3:15, GENKI, 1pt win at 7/2 (available generally)
Ascot 5:00, RAINFALL, 1pt win at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

This is the 334th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

My Saturday visit to Ascot did not bring any joy on the punting front, and neither of my selections posted on Betting League won either. Not a good day at the office!

On Betting League I posted-up the following selections, both at Haydock - RAINFALL in the opening race at 2:00pm, and FOUR NATIONS in the 5:10pm. I really thought that RAINFALL should ahead of the opposition in her race on pure ability alone, altho' there was a questionmark over her ability to stay the mile trip. I thought that her ability would carry her thru' and the odds of 4/1 (at the time) represented value as if she did stay the trip, then she'd likely win. As it happened, her odds drifted to an SP of 5/1 and tho' she came to challenge at the 2-furlong pole she did not have the stamina to carry that challenge thru' and finished 4th beaten just over 4-lengths. The race winner - King Torus - won what looked like a weak Group 2 at Goodwood as a 2yo before being sent for the Grand Criterium at Longchamps (won by Wooton Bassett) in which he was outclassed. Looking at the result, this race did not take much winning either and so if he steps up to Group company NTO, he needs to find a fair bit of improvement to be competitive. On reflection, I am happy that my wager on RAINFALL was the right one for this race.

As for FOUR NATIONS, he did everything right only to be beaten by a horse that had not looked capable of winning off either its official rating (OR87) or at the trip (mile & 6-furlongs). Where next, I'm not sure as he'll no doubt go up another couple of pounds. So long as he tries this sort of trip again NTO, and on similar going, then I will probably support him. In my opinion, he could develop into a useful 4yo, especially in races like the Old Borough Cup over the same trip and on the same card.

I was glad (in a way) that I did not have a wager on another previous selection, Zuider Zee in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. He came 3rd at 13/2, altho' 8/1 was available for most of the morning. I'm sure this horse is destined for the sales and a future over hurdles now as he is thoroughly one-paced.

I was at Ascot, and I will not bore you with the tales of my losses there. However, I did see some snippets of good form. In the 2yo class 2 Stakes race over a mile win by Falls Of Lora, ITTASAL was given no sort of chance as her rider managed to get her boxed-in at the 2-furlong pole as the leader weakened quickly. She is a lot better than this, make note.
In the class 3 fillies h'cap, also over a mile, ELECTRA STAR produced a devastating turn-of-foot to win this and she may not go up much for this and looks very well handicapped and one to follow.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Is horse welfare really on the agenda for "jump" racing?

This is the 325th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I’ve been occupied these past couple of weeks entertaining my 8yo son (whom I hardly see as he lives with his mum in far-west Cornwall, over 300 miles from me). Hence, my blog has been a bit quiet. Please accept my apologies.

There have been some developments in horseracing recently – developments that cannot be overlooked.

Last week we had the announcement of a 4-year ban on established “front-rank” jumps trainer Howard Johnson. He was found guilty of actions that were detrimental to a racehorse’s welfare, whilst in his care. Personally, I found the 4-year ban out of kilter with other recent disciplinary measures – such as the much shorter ban for doping handed-out last year to Nicky Henderson. I understand that there are measures of responsibility involved but, in my opinion, “bans” must be realistic and consistent if “horseracing” is to provide an acceptable face to the general public as well as its own community. A 4-year ban in any sport is pretty conclusive – and so it proved to Howard Johnson, as he immediately announced his retirement. I was saddened by this as it must be remembered that Johnson (thru’ his stable) brought “champion” hurdler Inglis Drever back from a career-threatening injury to win not one, but two further World Hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival. Yes, he made an error of judgment but, given his career history, are horses in his care fundamentally at risk? And is that risk enough to warrant his removal from the sport entirely? We’ve all seen the “riots” on tv last week, but are all those apprehended to be tarred with the same brush irrespective of the level of their individual crime? If you say yes to that, then we as a nation should apply the same level of blame in all areas – in other words, if you are guilty then there are no half-measures of punishment. However, I think that our strength as a nation is that we are compassionate, and the level of punishment levied at Howard Johnson was – in my opinion - over-the-top.

This week (yesterday, in fact) we’ve had the announcement of further modifications to the Aintree Grand National course, made in the effort to make the course “safer”. Some fences have been reduced in height and, at some fences – including Bechers Brook – the level of the “landing” side of the fence has been raised. After this year’s race was marred by the deaths of two horses, there was much media attention on whether it was worth it. At the time, and it has been repeated in media reports today, it was reported that more than half the number of fallers in the race occurred in the 1st-6 fences, ie up to and including Bechers Brook on the 1st circuit of the National. Jockeys and Trainers, as well as those experienced in “Jump” racing all sang from the same hymn sheet in blaming the speed the horses ran at over those 1st-6 fences as being the primary contributory factor of the fallers. With fallers comes the potential of injury and, in the case of broken bones, the death of the horse.

In my opinion, reducing the height of some fences and making then more inviting to jump by increasing the height of the “kick-board” in front of the fence will just mean the horses will run faster over the 1st-6 fences. As such, raising the level of the landing side will have no effect in reducing the number of fallers that fall due to the speed they are travelling at and, as the horses will be travelling quicker, the potential for injury will be increased.

There is always a risk involved with racing. It seems some people have already forgotten the scenes at Ascot a few weeks ago when Rewilding broke a leg when running at full speed in front of the stands. That was a “Flat” race by-the-way, and one of the most prestigious flat races of the season in Europe.

The hidden agenda for the Grand National is its future demise and removal from the racing calendar. In chipping away at its reason for being, support for the race within the industry will wither as it ceases to be the historic spectacular of past years. There is already apathy towards the event from some bookmakers, and the BBC only televise it because they feel obliged to. If racing wants to preserve the race and guarantee its future then it needs to think outside the box.

The pace of the race over the initial mile must be reduced. That could be done by:-
(a) fixing it’s date in the calendar. If it is always run on the last Saturday in March, that should provide softer (and slower) going. [The Gold Cup at Cheltenham could be run 15 days earlier – again, fixed in the calendar.] Another possibility is:-
(b) to move the starting position to a point alongside the Melling Road on the ‘back-straight’ of the Mildmay course. That way, the distance of race could be maintained but, rather than a sprint in a straight-line to the 1st-fence, the runners would have to negotiate a sharp left-turn after a furlong which should slow them enough to approach the 1st-fence at a more moderate gallop.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shergar Cup Day at Ascot

This is the 323rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.

Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.

Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.

There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.

Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.

Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

FRANKEL is supreme

This is the 320th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Wednesday), but there should be a selection today on what looks another great day’s racing at “Glorious” Goodwood.

I cannot let yesterday pass without a comment on what may have been one of the performances of all-time – it was certainly a performance of the like that had me clutching for comparisons. FRANKEL annihilated Canford Cliffs (a horse I consider one of the best “milers” we’ve seen in this country for a long time, and conqueror of Goldikova) with a ‘sustained’ burst of acceleration that left Canford Cliffs toiling in his wake. There were some who thought Canford Cliffs was not at his best as they searched for an excuse but, believe me, he came into this race fully prepared to run to his best. As such, FRANKEL’s 5-length advantage at the post suggests he is possibly the greatest ‘miler’ we’ve ever seen; one that I rate at 146 (there, I’ve said it). There is talk that FRANKEL will stay in training as a 4yo and we have to thank his owner Khalid Abdullah for such a magnificent gesture.

Today at Goodwood, we have a meeting that looks a cracker on paper. The opening 10-furlong Class 2 h’cap for 3yo’s is a tremendous race to open with. There are a number of improving horses that all look capable of better things than they’ve shown to-date. Belgian Bill, Fulgur, Chain Lightning, Labarinto, Boogie Shoes, Oceanway – the winner could be anyone of those and yet, none. Anyway, I think I’ve managed to find one in this that could have a better chance than his odds suggest.

The Group 2 King George Stakes will be over in a flash, and I am particularly forward to the performance of Humidor who will love this fast 5-furlongs. The presence of Kingsgate Native in this will ensure a decent market but he’s not the one I fancy to take this.
I am a fan of the long-distance races like the Goodwood Cup, but prefer them to be beyond 2-mile. At this trip, and on a course like Goodwood, I feel the need for abundant stamina in not necessary. But this field looks comparatively weak compared with previous years, and we may have a turn-up in this today.

So, what is my selection today? Take a look at Betting League (after noon today) as that’s where you will find it, the link is adjacent and it’s free, won’t cost you a penny. I’m on a bit of a roll this month with 4 winners from 8 selections so far, including Strong Suit on Tuesday (advised at 3/1).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Sad day at Ascot

This is the 317th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Saturday), but it was not for want of me not having an opinion on the day’s racing.

As events went on the day, I was called upon by my partner to drive her into town for an eye-test at 10am, and fully expected being back at my computer by 11:30 and able to post-up my blog at about noon. I never got home till 2:30pm in the afternoon and, by that time, I felt that had I posted-up any selections so late in the day that nobody (but me) would have been able to take advantage. I was asked on twitter what my selections were, and I gave 2 selections: KARAKA KACK who won at an SP of 5/1 (having been 9/1 all morning), and Wake Up Call who ran unplaced at 14/1. For those who are interested, this can be confirmed by reading my tweets on my twitter account @wayward_lad. This was on top of my positive words about NATHANIEL written on Thursday (see previous blog below) who won the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 11/2 (advised at 9/1).

I’ll not take credit for NATHANIEL as (as I wrote on Thursday) in recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he tipped NATHANIEL (as well as a couple of other winners) in his column in that paper. I did write tho’ that I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and that a 3yo “Derby winner” would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. Combined with the fact that NATHANIEL had been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race the mid-week odds of 9/1 were very generous, and even the SP of 11/2 was unrealistic given the opposition.

What was desperate about that race was the injury (which was horrific viewing) suffered by Rewilding. Unfortunately, horses are but flesh and bone and this accident could have happened anywhere. However, it happened on the BBC (of all channels) and the only possible grain of consolation to be drawn from the event is that it should (hopefully) speed-up the demise of horse-racing on that channel.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Get monkey that monkey off your back

This is the 316th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.

Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.

Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.

Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.

At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.

I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

One selection - one winner, given yesterday

This is the 310th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I posted just one selection yesterday on Betting League, CHARLIE COOL, and what an easy winner it was. This is what I wrote on there;
“Has been knocking on the door recently without success, but runs off OR86 which is a drop of 2lb and is clear top-rated on official handicap ratings. This trip should suit as will going - let's hope the pace is not muddling. Extraterrestrial is not an odds-on shot given poor form at York (080007) and that a mile is his limit. For me, 11/4 with Paddy Power is a gift.”

CHARLIE COOL was a 2pt win bet at advised odds of 11/4, and he had an SP of 2/1.

Today is probably the best day of flat racing in the entire season with 3 absolute cracking meetings at Ascot, York and Newmarket, plus a host of other meetings. I will repeat the advice I gave earlier in the week and that is on these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.

Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 12-noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Feast or famine?

This is the 308th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?

James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.

There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.

The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.

Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Only selection yesterday is a winner!

This is the 306th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Back with a bang from holiday when my only selection yesterday – posted on Betting League – won!

The winner was DRAGONERA in the 7:50 at Ripon and when I posted-up the selection on Betting League at about 3:30pm it was available at odds of 4/1 with several bookmakers. As a result of the market leaders Lady Amakhala and King Of The Celts withdrawing from the race, DRAGONERA started the 5/4 fav and the result was never in any doubt.

Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. If I have a selection for today, then I will make it known further down in the blog.

There is an intelligent article written by Greg Wood of The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/jul/04/betfair-charge-hike-coin-flip) which is well worth a read. Now, I have had an account with Betfair since December 2001 and have always been a supporter of the betting exchanges. However, I have noticed in recent years (probably from 2009 onwards) that the horse-racing markets are “driven” by forces that do not appear human. This has resulted in race fav’s starting at shorter odds than is reasonable ie. 5/4 (2.30) rather than an expected 7/4 (2.80) with the majority of the contraction occurring in the final few minutes before the race starts. This contraction also affects (in my opinion) the odds of the 2nd and 3rd fav but not to such a degree. Of course, the “upside” for punters who oppose the market leaders is that the 4th fav may be available at 8/1 (9.20) rather than the expected 13/2 (7.60). This is a simplified view for the benefit of illustration.

Generally, I now only use Betfair for “laying” (usually place-laying) and when I spot an opportunity to back-to-lay, but even back-to-lay opportunities are getting scarce now as the “bots” used by professional punters manipulate the in-running market to the point that it is not possible to make anything but the smallest of margins (I used to endeavour to obtain 100% on B2L, but now I have reduced my margin target to 40%). For straight “win-only” wagers, I have been using traditional bookmakers more and more over the past 18 months.

Just the one flat (turf) meeting today at Pontefract and one I lost a few quid on last season run’s today – Hidden Glory – in the 3:00. A look at the formbook suggests todays conditions are perfect for him, as he was a close 3rd to Beachfire at Sandown on 03Jul10 off OR78. Beachfire won again NTO, and is now rated OR107 so that was a good effort from Hidden Glory on GF going over 10f. However, since then his form has been unpredictable and that promise has not been followed up so today he runs off OR74. All his 4 wins have been on the AW, but his 2 best performances on turf have been on GF going over today’s trip.

The class 3 King Richard III handicap at 4:30 over 6f looks a very tight event, and one that I was going to swerve. But now I have looked at the race, I reckon there’s one that could represent a bit of value. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).
The Listed race at 4:00 for fillies over a mile looks a good event with some progressive types involved. I think I have found a bit of value in this race too. Find out what by visiting Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Back from holiday and a new way forward

This is the 305th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.

I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.

Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.

As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.

At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.

It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Day 5 at Royal Ascot

This is the 304th edition of the daily blog page

A disastrous day for the blog selections yesterday, with all 3 well beaten despite me considering them all to hold serious chances in the morning. Was it the 11mm of rain before noon that put paid to their chances? Probably a contributory factor, but essentially it was also a mixture of not being good enough, being produced too early, and not settling in the early part of the race.

I was right about NATHANIEL in the King Edward VII Stakes. He has already been well-backed for the St Leger and, on yesterday’s display, he’s up to winning that classic race. Previous blog winner GLEN’S DIAMOND simply was not good enough, and a drop in class and trip should see him in better light.

The AP O’Brien filly TOGETHER came with a scything run thru’ the field before having to be checked inside, and then ran out of puff. I got the impression that she was produced too early and that, plus the softer going, meant she had nothing left in the final 150 yards and she faded from contention. She can do better than this on quicker going.

There was a huge market move for Green Destiny in the Wolferton handicap, and it did not come off. From watching the replay, I thought the horse took a knock in the 1st furlong of the race which he was feeling thereon. He could be one to be on NTO. My selection, SPANISH DUKE, was well fancied by some good judges having all in his favour. However, he could not settle, and was fighting his jockey for the 1st half of the race expending valuable energy, and when asked for an effort in the final half-mile he was already exhausted and found nothing – in fact he virtually slowed to a canter. As such, we got no sort of run but he is hugely talented and (like the winner Beachfire) he will come good again. Beachfire was phenomenal in winning this race, a terrific turn-of-foot, and it shows just what the right conditions and equipment (he was wearing blinkers for the 1st time) will do.

The rain thru’out the country will make the going unpredictable today, and as such I am giving racing a rest. I have been given a big plug for one at a long price in the Wokingham at Ascot by “The Laird” at Sprinterstogo (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/) so follow the link and take a look.

That’s it from me for a couple of weeks as I am off to Ibiza, but I will be back – with the blog – in early July.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad