Paul Nicholls loves Newbury

The 2^nd day of the Newbury Hennessy meeting. The opening day, for me, was fairly uneventful apart from previous blog selection IFANDBUTWHYNOT romping home, having made-all, at the generous odds of 8/1. We were on this horse back on the 26^th October at Aintree on the basis that this 2-mile specialist had started the fav for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a 2lb higher rating. He was outclassed that day but, perhaps, he needed the run as, with this win in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle, he's now won on 3 of his 4 races in November over the past couple of seasons.

It seems that following-up my selections on their next couple of runs can pay dividends looking at recent results: No Planning won NTO, as did Handy Andy, Johns Spirit (which I advised) and Abnaki. I try and make sure the horses I advise having a wager on are the sort that want to win races, having shown the ability to win and the will to win.

Onto Friday, and all the alert runners are engaged at Newbury:-

Newbury 1:30 – VALID REASON, FIREBIRD FLYER, INVICTA LAKE, and TWELVE ROSES

Newbury 2:05 – THJE ROMFORD PELE, WONDERFUL CHARM, and UP TO SOMETHING

Newbury 2:30 – GRANDIOSO, THEATRICAL STAR, CANTLOW, and HAZY TOM

Newbury 1:30 – The market leader, alert horse Twelve Roses, attempts 3-mile for the first time and there is no guarantee he'll get this trip despite the confidence of his stable. Similarly, 2^nd-fav Western Warrior is not guaranteed to stay 3-mile. Free To Dream runs with a 7lb penalty and will stay the trip, but will he turn up? His form is a bit erratic. Minella For Steak has been running well on heavy ground and probably wants another slog. Chiberta King beat a useful field of novices over 2m3f in January and he could be thereabouts if his stamina holds-up. Alert horse Valid Reason will be brought with his usual late effort, but he's never raced beyond 2m2f never mind won. I think this race could go to a long odds runner, and alert horse FIREBIRD FLYER may have run a stinker LTO, but we know he stays every yard of 3-mile and should handle the ground. That latest run may have cleared away the cobwebs and with 21 runners there are 4-places eachway, which makes the 50/1 very tempting.

Newbury 2:05 – it is very difficult not to see WONDERFUL CHARM not winning this race. Everything else looks outclassed, and this is another stepping stone to the ultimate target of the RSA Chase at the Festival in March (Nicholls won this race with Denman in 2006).

Newbury 2:30 – Theatrical Star has been asking for a return to 2m4f since winning at Exeter in April. He won over 2m6f NTO but that race was fairly easy and, this autumn he run over 3-mile at Chepstow, and had a couple of spins at 2-mile. Neither of those trips suited him and he's now dropped 7lb from OR140 to OR133 which is the rating he won off at Exeter! That said, I really like GRANDIOSO. He was last seen winning at Kempton in February and he could develop into a decent chaser this season as he's been brought along gently. The worry is that Nicholls horses have looked like needing a run this season. Even so, current odds of 12/1 (with Bet365) are very tempting about a Nicholls trained horse at Newbury where the trainer has a 25% strike-rate with chasers. Yes, he also runs Cedre Bleu, but he did not look like an improving sort last season and looks a tricky ride. Of the other alert horses, Cantlow should enjoy this trip but he's not progressed as a chaser. And thee time to catch Hazy Tom is 1^st-time-out or when he is very fresh.

As much as it seems worth a wager, I'm going to pass over FIREBIRD FLYER as this looks a very competitive race. That said, if readers want to risk a "fiver" on a small each way wager, I would not put them off.

Selection:

Newbury 2:30 GRANDIOSO, £5 eachway @ 12/1 with Bet365

Lull before the storm

It has been a quiet week for horseracing, other than the hacking of accounts at the Racing Post website.

All that starts to change today with the opening day of the 3-day "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury. Unfortunately, even today's horseracing is a bit dull, and there is not a single horse from my alert list running today anywhere. It will be a whole lot different tomorrow when a dozen from the list go to post, all at Newbury.

This evening, I'll be taking a look at the form for the Hennessy Gold Cup (HGC) and seeing if I can produce a shortlist from which to find a selection. Altho' there have been several recent winners of the HGC carrying more than 11st to victory, before Trabolgan's victory in 2005 with 11st 12lb, there was only one winner carrying more than 11st since 1985. A roll-call of the horses that have carried 11st-plus to victory produces some of the most evocative names in recent jump racing history.

1982, Bregawn with 11st 10lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup);

1984, Burrough Hill Lad with 12st 0lb (won a Cheltenham  Gold Cup);

2007 & 2009, Denman both times with 11st 12lb (won a Cheltenham  Gold Cup);

2012, Bobs Worth with 11st 6lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup).

Now, this list isn't exhaustive but, what I'm trying to demonstrate is that to win the Hennessy Gold Cup with more than 11st you have to find a horse with the capacity to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Another important trend is the age of the winner. In the past 19 years, since 1993, only 2 x 9yo's have won the race, and nothing older than that has. If you take account that one of those 9yo's was dual winner Denman (who I cheered home with a tear in my eye, even tho' I had my money riding on another horse in the race), and you realize that for a horse older than 8yo to win it either has to be very special, or very unusual.

 

Looking at this field for Saturday's race, there's only one horse with more than 11st that looks capable of winning a "future" Cheltenham Gold Cup. Yes, Imperial Commander has won a Cheltenham Gold Cup already, but he is now 12yo. That horse is KATENKO, who looked immense when winning at Cheltenham in January (at the "trials" meeting). A horse I think will run really well on Saturday is ROCKY CREEK, but his current odds of 8/1 are no value at all. For a value wager, I am very interested in the chance of CLOUDY TOO from Sue Smiths stable who could improve enough to be a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender and comes to this race in winning form. My only issue with this one as all his best form has been in fields of 11 or less, so the 20+ runners in Saturdays race could daunt him. Personally, I think the winner will carry less than 11st on Saturday, and I'm not thinking of INVICTUS who comes into this race off a break of 651 days. If Invictus wins on Saturday it will be a training feat of legendary status. However, this horse was on my alert list as a novice chaser and my thought then was that he's a much better chaser going right-handed. Even as a hurdler he only won at right-handed Ascot. I've got my eye on a horse and may have to issue an early blog on Friday evening to take advantage before the dogs start barking!

 

 

CUE CARD: If he stays 3-mile, he wins.

What a fantastic effort by CUE CARD to take the Betfair Chase with a front-running effort for most of the race. He was there for the field to take on in the straight but fought off all challengers and won in a commanding manner. As I wrote on yesterdays blog... "CUE CARD:  If he stays 3-mile, he wins" - it was as simple as that. I have always been convinced that he is a brilliantly talented chaser who just happens to be around at the time of a complete freak of nature in Sprinter Sacre. Before yesterday, my only doubt about him was whether he would stay 3-mile. I wasn't sure, even tho' I'd wagered on him to win the 3-mile King George Chase at Kempton last Boxing Day. That day, his jumping let him down as he came to the course "wired" and made several mighty blunders early in that race that ruined his chance.

Right now, I rate his performance of winning the Betfair Chase equal to that of Bobs Worth winning the last Cheltenham Gold Cup; basically I rate both efforts at 174. As far as recent staying chasers go, 174 is 2lb better than both Tidal Bay and Long Run at their best.  By my reckoning, 174 would have seen CUE CARD beat Syncronised 6+ lengths in the 2012 Gold Cup. I feel a bit sorry for Long Run as he's been very highly tried thru'out his young life, he's only an 8yo, and is perhaps 15lb below his best now and in decline. He deserves an honourable retirement having more than fulfilled his promise and paid his dues. Silviniaco Conti is short of Gold Cup class by about 5lb. By coincidence, the previous time CUE CARD and Silviniaco Conti met as novice chasers, the "gap" between them was 5lb with CUE CARD the superior horse. There is no guarantee that CUE CARD will repeat this effort in the Gold Cup in March, but he does love Cheltenham and that is a huge positive. Of course, Bobs Worth also loves Cheltenham, but his effort in the Betfair Chase was lacklustre. Whether he would have been able to come from behind and catch CUE CARD last March had that one been leading over the final couple of fences (had he gone for the Gold Cup instead of the Ryanair Chase) is - in my opinion - debatable. Then again, Cheltenham is a stiffer course than Haydock, and the Gold Cup is a couple of furlongs further (there is some debate that the trip at Haydock was actually 3m1f or, more likely, just 3-mile). Whatever, trainer Nicky Henderson has one helluva job getting Bobs Worth back on track, and he'll likely need at least 2 runs before March to show he's the horse he was last March.

As a betting man, the horse that is "value" to take from the Betfair Chase is DYNASTE. I was very impressed at the way he was brought gently, but menacingly, into the race on the 2nd circuit by Tom Scudamore. Remember, this horse won the Feltham Novices Chase on the same card as the King George last Boxing Day, so we know he handles that track and stays the trip well - and he has improved about 10lb since then. Is there some improvement to come? Probably, as his best form is on Good-to-Soft ground (not the soft/heavy it was yesterday). We also know the horse loves Cheltenham, with his only poor run there when  flopping in the World Hurdle (that was on good ground). I'd say he has a good chance of running CUE CARD close on Boxing Day and odds of 5/1 look fair as, other than CUE CARD, there is nothing else likely to race that can beat him. I'd certainly expect DYNASTE to be more likely to stay the Gold Cup trip than CUE CARD, and the 16/1 available with Betfred for the Gold Cup looks an eachway steal. There are no dangers lurking in Ireland as both Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant are already shown to be not good enough.

My selections yesterday were disappointing. VIVA COLONIA ran the best of the pair, but was nowhere near the level of performance I expected. Perhaps the drop in trip exposed his lack of speed to be competitive at 2-mile. Another of my alert horses, Saved By John, ran well and showed improved form; but by running so unrestrained in the first mile must have cost him plenty of energy and I'd say cost him the race.  If he can be taught to settle then he's possibly a 145+ performer. As for CHAC DU CADRAN, he had a stinker! He's run well on soft ground before, so that wasn't the problem, but he was struggling before they had completed half a mile. Having looked again at his profile, he's mainly raced in class 4, and perhaps he likes to be able to dominate, whereas he couldn't do that in this class 3 race. Food for thought.

The winner of the race NUTS N BOLTS looks a sure-fire horse to follow. His jumping in the final mile was awful, but he still saw off the challenges and stayed on strong. The horse loved the going, he's now won 5 of his 8 starts on soft/heavy but, personally, I did not think he'd stay this extreme trip.

Finally, a word for SILVER BY NATURE who returned to Haydock, the scene of his greatest triumph when beating OUR VIC on heavy ground. I rated Saturdays run by Silver By Nature at 152 and, if he can find his usual 7lb improvement for his seasonal debut, he will be right in the frame for the Welsh National, a ran he was 2nd in back in 2009.

Showdown at Haydock Park

It's a big day at Haydock with the Betfair chase bringing together all the best staying chasers in the UK. Due to Internet problems,  this is going to be a shorter blog than usual.

Ascot is a real disappointment today, with the feature race reduced to a 2-horse match. That said, I reckon we have a decent wager in the 3:15 at Ascot in VIVA COLONIA. Coming from the unfashionable Brian Ellison stable, I reckon VIVA COLONIA is underrated,  and should be joint fav with Drumshambo. That horse is akso on my alert list but, at the odds, VIVA COLONIA is the value wager at 11/2. Only 7 go to post so it's a win wager.

My other wager is at Haydock but not in the feature race. Previous blog selection CHAC DU CADRAN runs in the 1:15 and I think he should be fav for this race having trip and ground in his favour.  It was a silly fall LTO as he over jumped the fence. At 10/1 he has to be an eachway play.

The feature race revolves around CUE CARD.  If he stays 3-mile, he wins. Simple as that. But, it is a very strong race, and we just don't know how much ability Tidal Bay retains at 12yo.

Selections
Haydock 1:15, CHAC DU CADRAN £5 win & £5 eachway @ 10/1
Ascot 3:15, VIVA COLONIA £10 win @ 11/2
Total stakes= £25