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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Thursday, 28 November 2013
Lull before the storm
It has been a quiet week for horseracing, other than the hacking of accounts at the Racing Post website.
All that starts to change today with the opening day of the 3-day "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury. Unfortunately, even today's horseracing is a bit dull, and there is not a single horse from my alert list running today anywhere. It will be a whole lot different tomorrow when a dozen from the list go to post, all at Newbury.
This evening, I'll be taking a look at the form for the Hennessy Gold Cup (HGC) and seeing if I can produce a shortlist from which to find a selection. Altho' there have been several recent winners of the HGC carrying more than 11st to victory, before Trabolgan's victory in 2005 with 11st 12lb, there was only one winner carrying more than 11st since 1985. A roll-call of the horses that have carried 11st-plus to victory produces some of the most evocative names in recent jump racing history.
1982, Bregawn with 11st 10lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup);
1984, Burrough Hill Lad with 12st 0lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup);
2007 & 2009, Denman both times with 11st 12lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup);
2012, Bobs Worth with 11st 6lb (won a Cheltenham Gold Cup).
Now, this list isn't exhaustive but, what I'm trying to demonstrate is that to win the Hennessy Gold Cup with more than 11st you have to find a horse with the capacity to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Another important trend is the age of the winner. In the past 19 years, since 1993, only 2 x 9yo's have won the race, and nothing older than that has. If you take account that one of those 9yo's was dual winner Denman (who I cheered home with a tear in my eye, even tho' I had my money riding on another horse in the race), and you realize that for a horse older than 8yo to win it either has to be very special, or very unusual.
Looking at this field for Saturday's race, there's only one horse with more than 11st that looks capable of winning a "future" Cheltenham Gold Cup. Yes, Imperial Commander has won a Cheltenham Gold Cup already, but he is now 12yo. That horse is KATENKO, who looked immense when winning at Cheltenham in January (at the "trials" meeting). A horse I think will run really well on Saturday is ROCKY CREEK, but his current odds of 8/1 are no value at all. For a value wager, I am very interested in the chance of CLOUDY TOO from Sue Smiths stable who could improve enough to be a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender and comes to this race in winning form. My only issue with this one as all his best form has been in fields of 11 or less, so the 20+ runners in Saturdays race could daunt him. Personally, I think the winner will carry less than 11st on Saturday, and I'm not thinking of INVICTUS who comes into this race off a break of 651 days. If Invictus wins on Saturday it will be a training feat of legendary status. However, this horse was on my alert list as a novice chaser and my thought then was that he's a much better chaser going right-handed. Even as a hurdler he only won at right-handed Ascot. I've got my eye on a horse and may have to issue an early blog on Friday evening to take advantage before the dogs start barking!