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Record of the blog selections
Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38
from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)
Total Staked = £280.00
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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Friday, 29 November 2013
Paul Nicholls loves Newbury
The 2nd day of the Newbury Hennessy meeting. The opening day, for me, was fairly uneventful apart from previous blog selection IFANDBUTWHYNOT romping home, having made-all, at the generous odds of 8/1. We were on this horse back on the 26th October at Aintree on the basis that this 2-mile specialist had started the fav for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a 2lb higher rating. He was outclassed that day but, perhaps, he needed the run as, with this win in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle, he's now won on 3 of his 4 races in November over the past couple of seasons.
It seems that following-up my selections on their next couple of runs can pay dividends looking at recent results: No Planning won NTO, as did Handy Andy, Johns Spirit (which I advised) and Abnaki. I try and make sure the horses I advise having a wager on are the sort that want to win races, having shown the ability to win and the will to win.
Onto Friday, and all the alert runners are engaged at Newbury:-
Newbury 1:30 – VALID REASON, FIREBIRD FLYER, INVICTA LAKE, and TWELVE ROSES
Newbury 2:05 – THJE ROMFORD PELE, WONDERFUL CHARM, and UP TO SOMETHING
Newbury 2:30 – GRANDIOSO, THEATRICAL STAR, CANTLOW, and HAZY TOM
Newbury 1:30 – The market leader, alert horse Twelve Roses, attempts 3-mile for the first time and there is no guarantee he'll get this trip despite the confidence of his stable. Similarly, 2nd-fav Western Warrior is not guaranteed to stay 3-mile. Free To Dream runs with a 7lb penalty and will stay the trip, but will he turn up? His form is a bit erratic. Minella For Steak has been running well on heavy ground and probably wants another slog. Chiberta King beat a useful field of novices over 2m3f in January and he could be thereabouts if his stamina holds-up. Alert horse Valid Reason will be brought with his usual late effort, but he's never raced beyond 2m2f never mind won. I think this race could go to a long odds runner, and alert horse FIREBIRD FLYER may have run a stinker LTO, but we know he stays every yard of 3-mile and should handle the ground. That latest run may have cleared away the cobwebs and with 21 runners there are 4-places eachway, which makes the 50/1 very tempting.
Newbury 2:05 – it is very difficult not to see WONDERFUL CHARM not winning this race. Everything else looks outclassed, and this is another stepping stone to the ultimate target of the RSA Chase at the Festival in March (Nicholls won this race with Denman in 2006).
Newbury 2:30 – Theatrical Star has been asking for a return to 2m4f since winning at Exeter in April. He won over 2m6f NTO but that race was fairly easy and, this autumn he run over 3-mile at Chepstow, and had a couple of spins at 2-mile. Neither of those trips suited him and he's now dropped 7lb from OR140 to OR133 which is the rating he won off at Exeter! That said, I really like GRANDIOSO. He was last seen winning at Kempton in February and he could develop into a decent chaser this season as he's been brought along gently. The worry is that Nicholls horses have looked like needing a run this season. Even so, current odds of 12/1 (with Bet365) are very tempting about a Nicholls trained horse at Newbury where the trainer has a 25% strike-rate with chasers. Yes, he also runs Cedre Bleu, but he did not look like an improving sort last season and looks a tricky ride. Of the other alert horses, Cantlow should enjoy this trip but he's not progressed as a chaser. And thee time to catch Hazy Tom is 1st-time-out or when he is very fresh.
As much as it seems worth a wager, I'm going to pass over FIREBIRD FLYER as this looks a very competitive race. That said, if readers want to risk a "fiver" on a small each way wager, I would not put them off.
Newbury 2:30 GRANDIOSO, £5 eachway @ 12/1 with Bet365