The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 1

We are down to the final week before the Cheltenham Festival, and over the next few days I'm going to be having a look at the races, noting trends, positives, negatives and hopefully a few winners along the way. I've been writing this blog since 2010, and I've followed horseracing since the late 1960's, and while this years' Festival has some intrigue in the championship races, overall this jumps season has been lacking in excitement. There now seems to be a distinct "gap" between Britain and Ireland in the quality and depth of the best horses.  It's not the ability of the trainers, as there are some talented young trainers out there who are doing an incredible job with what they have: but they are not going to get near winning one of the Grade 1 Championship races without having the owners putting serious investment in.  Horseracing, like just about everything in the UK, is lacking investment - and where it goes from here I've no idea.  

Onto the Cheltenham Festival, and on the opening day (Tuesday) we get straight into the thick of the action from the opening race. Remember, the two most important stats, doesn't matter which race, 1) An average of 55% of all Cheltenham Festival winners are LTO winners; 2) An average of 95% of all Cheltenham Festival winners ran their previous race no more than 84 days before - which is usually 25th December. 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1 over 2-mile & 87yds

This race is usually won by a LTO winner, and a horse no older than 6yo; also, 7 of the last 9 winners started the race with a rating of OR150+. 

There is a major question-mark over the fav Facile Vega after the abysmal performance LTO. Trainer Willie Mullins laid the blame on the jockey (Paul Townend), and he will be trying to make amends. However, to do so I expect we will not see Facile Vega making the pace, but just being ridden prominently - will that suit, or won't it?  The 2nd fav is Marine Nationale, but he's not races since 04Dec and that - to be fair - isn't a good sign. Take in that he only just won that day, and the horse he beat (Irish Point) is rated OR142 - so, Marine Nationale has to find 15lb of improvement on that performance. Willie Mullins dominates this race: along with Facile Vega, he has Il Etait Temps, Gaelic Warrior, and Impaire Et Passe plus others (a total of 8 entries), and you cannot really ignore any. Personally, I think Impaire Et Passe will go for the Ballymore over 2m5f; his hurdle debut was over 2m3f, and I think his run on 15Jan over 2-mile was just to keep him ticking-over. Gaelic Warrior is interesting as his win LTO is one of the best formlines in this race, but it was in a handicap, and LTO handicap winners have an awful record trying to win graded races at the Festival.  I did think he was going for the County (h'cap) Hurdle, but he looks destined for this race. Readers of the blog have already been recommended to wager on Il Etait Temps, and this gelding has improved with every run - there's every possibility that he will improve again, and I note he holds a County Hurdle entry with a mark of OR148 and he's clearly better than that!  You can never ignore Henderson's entries in this race, and the mare Luccia is interesting but you will be placing your faith in potential, not form.  The form of "Tolworth" winner Tahmuras has been boosted by the placed horses, and he's better than his OR138 rating. The Frankel gelding Diverge (Mullins) could be anything. I can't imagine any other entry coming to the fore in this race, and at this stage I would advise hanging-on to the declaration stage before having a wager. That Mullins has so many entered, the cynic in me would not be surprised if Facile Vega doesn't run, in which case I'd expect Paul Townend to ride Gaelic Warrior and that one to start the fav at about 2/1.  

Arkle Novices' Chase Grade 1 over 2-miles

Last year, I made the expensive error of overlooking the obvious ability of eventual winner Edwardstone by focussing on his age. The top-rated on official ratings has won 9 of the last 13; and 21 of the last 25 winners won their previous race.  I have tried to not do the same this year by prioritising ability; and in this respect the two market leaders in El Fabiolo and Jonbon look much better than the remainder. As is the trend in recent years, I expect there to be fewer than 10 runners on the day, probably only 7 or 8. With Appreciate It and Banbridge almost certain to go for the "Turners" over 2m4f instead, and Saint Roi looking more of a handicap horse, it's possible that the final field will be El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Dysart Dynamo / Sir Gerhard / Boothill and maybe a couple of others. Dysart Dynamo is going to be some horse when he learns to settle-down, but he's only won 3 of his 6 races over obstacles at odds of 8/13, 4/9 and 2/5 and by 28-lengths, 19-lengths (twice); but when in Grade-1 races he flops. I think if he wins the Arkle, it will even Mullins by surprise! Sir Gerhard, who won the Ballymore last year, is much more interesting and is the type who could find a lot of improvement on his chase debut. It might be worth taking the 14/1 (NRNB) offered by Bet365 and Paddy Power.

Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-mile & 1-furlong

One of the most competitive chase handicaps of the season, and for a full review of the form I will wait until the declarations are out next weekend. A few interesting stats: 13 of the last 15 winners had won over 3-mile or more; and 10 of the last 13 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.  Another interesting factor is headgear: 8 of the last 10 winners wore some sort of headgear - that's an odd one, and it may pay to note any 1st-time applications.  Starting from the top-weight, who isn't going to run and how much are the weights going to go up? I don't think the top-4 in the weights will run, and the eventual top-weight will be Stolen Silver. Why does this matter? The top-weight will carry 11st 12lb, which means (as Stolen Silver is allocated 11st 9lb) the weights will go up 3lb.  In the past 10 years, 75% of the finishers in the 1st-4 places carried 11st or more. That means the top-rated 26 (Karl Philippe and above) will likely carry 11st or more.  All the market leaders fall into this category, and there are a couple that look interesting: Happygolucky who was 2nd in this race in 2021 off OR147, and Tea Clipper who was 4th in this race last year. It is Tea Clipper that interests me most, as when he was 4th last year that was only his 4th chase race. He came back off a long break to run a cracker at Chepstow in October, and followed that up with an excellent effort at Ascot, proving he stays 3-miles. The negative is that Tea Clipper hasn't won a race beyond 2m4f. I'm not that bothered that he hasn't run since November as his trainer a) planned to miss the heavy winter ground, b) this race has been his target for 12 months, and c) he goes well fresh. Odds of 16/1 NRNB are available generally, and that looks value to me.

Advised wagers:

Arkle: SIR GERHARD - £5 ew NRNB @ 14/1 (Bet365 & PaddyPower)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

Saturday 25th February - Kempton

We have, what could well be, an informative day of racing at Kempton today. The meeting opens with the "Adonis" juvenile hurdle over 2-miles and I will be surprised if the fav, Scriptwriter, is beaten today. He has an official rating of OR132, but I reckon he's more like 140+. The Irish-trained challenger Nusret has not shown he's up to OR130 in my view, while Perseus Way is about right on OR125. It's the recent hurdling debut winners Rare Middleton (Paul Nicholls) and Sarsons Risk who probably pose the danger.

I'm fairly happy with the antepost wagers for Cheltenham; you cannot guarantee winners, but hopefully we will be in with a good shout. If you didn't read last Sunday's blog, take a look below. On 11th February, I advised a £5 eachway wager on Boothill for the Arkle; not because I think he can beat the market leaders Jonbon and El Fabiolo, but at the then 40/1 odds he looked a value punt for the 3rd-placed slot. I'm expecting a small number of runners in the Arkle - probably El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Dysart Dynamo / Final Orders / Boothill / Fil Dor and maybe a couple of others - and today Boothill should be able to cement his place in the race on the day. Boothill runs in the 2:25pm at Kempton, the Pendil Novices Chase over 2m4f, and his jumping ability should carry him to victory in this race today. Datsalrightgino has shown his ability to stay the trip, but his jumping let him down at Cheltenham; if he's improved that then he's in with a shout.

The 3rd race on the Kempton card is the 3-mile Coral Trophy (h'cap) Chase, which is a long-standing race on the calendar. If Annsam is in the same mood as when he won LTO over C&D 42-days ago, he will take a lot of beating.  It will take a career-best from Cap Du Nord to win this off OR132, but he's running exceptionally well.  There's another improving 8yo that runs prominently, stays the trip well and looks well handicapped, and that's Bobehopenohope at 20/1 (generally available) and with 4-places he looks an eachway steal. 

While I think there's a tiny bit of value in the Scriptwriter odds as there's 7/4 available in places, and I think he's more of an "evens" chance, there's not so much in the Boothill odds of 2/1 as Datsalrightgino isn't that far away from him in ability, and this trip is an unknown for Boothill.   So, if you are happy playing fav's, I would not put you off having a wager on SCRIPTWRITER.

My only personal wager today is £5 eachway on BOBHOPENOHOPE @ 20/1 which is generally available, with there being 4-places paid at 5th odds. 

Sunday 19th February - just 23 days to go

Not long now, and time to take a look at the betting to see if there is any opportunity lurking in the Cheltenham Festival betting. Before we go any further, what about Shishkin! He looks absolutely back to his best, and fully recovered from the head-to-head battle with Energumene at Ascot last season. He's entered for the Ryanair Chase, and I hope readers of the blog took note of my blog from 31st December: here's a reminder of what I wrote:- The Ryanair Chase.  It will be interesting if Shishkin goes for this race as it looks perfect for him at this time, and odds of 8/1 are worth a small wager as if he does line-up for this he will likely go off at 3/1.

I'm putting the following into eachway doubles and trebles. Why eachway and not win only? These selections "should" be in the 1st-3 of their respective races, but are either not likely to win (eg: Nube Negra, and Conflated) or could win if luck goes their way.

In the QMCC: Nube Negra

Ryanair: Shiskin & Conflated 

Stayers' Hurdle: Flooring Porter

Gold Cup: Stattler

Right now, I have Shishkin 10lb ahead of anything else likely to run in the Ryanair Chase, and I'm really surprised that 5/4 is readily available, as I think he should be odds-on for the race.  To me, this is a "Master Minded moment", and readers with longer memories will recall 2009 when Master Minded won the Champion Chase for the 2nd time at odds of 4/11 and many decent judges thought that was VALUE as he should have gone off at 1/8, he was such a certainty.  This is a massive advantage for the punter, and we have to include Shishkin as a "banker" in doubles and trebles.  I can see him having only 4 or 5 rivals in the Ryanair and starting the race with an SP of 2/5.

Who to couple him with? 

In the Turners Novice Chase we have Mighty Potter, who looks to have that race at his mercy, and is available at 11/8; and in the Arkle Nov Chase, blog readers are already on El Fabiolo.  It is probably not a good idea to tie that pair at current odds with Shishkin as it just creates another level of risk.

If we consider other races, is the Willie Mullins trained State Man capable of an upset in the Champion Hurdle? No horse is unbeatable, even Constitution Hill - and State Man might be capable.

The NH Chase may offer some better value, as I sincerely don't think either of the Mullins pair of Gaillard Du Mesnil and Ramillies are capable of winning this race on the form they've show to date. With Chemical Energy having to "recover" his form, the pair I think could provide the winner is Churchstonewarrior and Mahler Mission, and they are available at odds of around 6/1 (NRNB).  Those are not great odds, but it means we are not squandering the 5/4 available on Shishkin. 

The next race worth considering is the "Brown Advisory" and the fav Gerri Colombe @ 5/2 and Thyme Hill @ 6/1; I do not think either The Real Whacker or Sir Gerhard will be good enough. 

I'm going to think a bit more about this overnight, and finalise my selections tomorrow. 

(Monday evening: 20th Feb) Whichever races we look to for potential multiple wagers including Shishkin, they have to be the Grade 1 championship races, and we've looked at 5 of those already.  The Champion Chase is possibly too tricky to single-out a solid selection. There's no doubt that Energumene is a top-class two-mile chaser when you look back at his "match" with Shiskin at Ascot last year; and while he ran flat at the Cheltenham Trials meeting, it is not inconceivable that he will bounce-back from that. Edwardstone is probably better than he showed that day at Cheltenham, as his rider allowed the eventual winner Editeur Du Gite to get away from him. I just cannot see EDG being given as much rope in the QMCC, but there is another horse that could upset the leading fancies: Gentleman Du Mee. He is lightly raced, and is an improving 7yo; he could be very interesting on the day. No, the QMCC has too many complications for me.

The Stayers' Hurdle looks wide open on paper, but I think the front-3 in the betting Blazing Khal, Teahupoo, and Home By The Lee all have to raise their game to run better than 160 on my personal assessment. They are all just short of the mark, so the younger pair of Blazing Khal and Teahupoo are the ones more likely to find the required improvement. I'm still of the opinion that Flooring Porter is the one to beat in this race. 

I cannot begin to assess the Triumph Hurdle, and the 3-mile Albert Bartlett looks a real head-scratcher at this point. So it looks like I'm back to the 3 races I had with potential selections on Sunday:

NH Chase: Churchstonewarrior / Mahler Mission

Brown Advisory: Gerri Colombe / Thyme Hill

Unfortunately, the best odds available on NRNB terms are from BetVictor, who have:

11/10 on Shishkin

9/4 on Gerri Colombe,

5/1 on Thyme Hill,

6/1 on Churchstonewarrior,

8/1 on Mahler Mission

Those horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles:

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Weekend of 11th/12th February

The Dublin Racing Festival last week was really something to savour, and I expect we have seen several Cheltenham winners performing there. Hopefully, readers of the blog are already on a couple of them at decent odds: El Fabiolo in the "Arkle" and Mighty Potter in the "Turners".  Let's have a quick run-through the races:

Supreme Novices Hurdle

The excuse given regarding the poor effort by Facile Vega was the searing early pace, and as it did result in a good time you cannot take anything away from the winner, Il Etait Temps. This was a very taking effort and I notice that he is now 9/2 in the betting. Mullins does have a stranglehold on the race, with only Marine Nationale in the top-5 of the betting that isn't trained by him. With Impaire Et Passe looking more likely to run in the "Ballymore" - and I think Gaelic Warrior may be going for another target, possibly the County Hurdle. One to keep an eye on is the ex-flat horse High Definition - he's possibly the type to go extremely well if the ground is riding more good than soft on the opening day. 

Advice: IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Arkle Novice Chase

This race looks like cutting-up and we could have fewer than half a dozen runners on the day, as the market leaders Jonbon and El Fabiolo look head & shoulders better than any of the other expected runners (barring Mighty Potter). As I'm expecting Appreciate It and Banbridge to go for the "Turners" over 2m4f, and Dysart Dynamo to possibly give this race a miss (he's just not good enough), and Saint Roi to go for one of the chase handicaps; there is the possibility of finding a very long-odds punt on a horse for 3rd place. A couple look interesting: Haddex Des Obeaux @ 20/1 (NRNB) but he runs today at Warwick, so will likely miss the Arkle; and Boothill @ 40/1 (NRNB) and as you likely wont be able to get eachway 1st-3 on the day, they look worth a speculative wager as if they don't run you get your stake money back, and if they do you should have a realistic chance of 3rd place in a 6 or 7-runner race.

Advice: BOOTHILL - £5 eachway @ 40/1 (NRNB)

NH Chase over 3m6f

I the life of me, I cannot understand why Galliard Du Mesnil is the 7/4 fav for this race. The Mullins stable also have 2nd-fav Ramilies, but there's a possibility he may run in the 3-mile "Broadway" Chase on the Wednesday, and he may be better suited to that race having been caught close home LTO.  Mahler Mission ticks a lot of boxes; he's a thorough stayer (twice a 3-mile hurdle winner) and was an impressive winner LTO. He runs tomorrow at Navan, and I expect him to win there, which means his current odds of 9/1 (Corals) or 13/2 (Bet365) with NRNB are worth taking. City Chief (Henderson) is also interesting, as he looks capable of being in the mix, but Cheltenham may come a bit too soon for him. Chemical Energy was the Gordon Elliott choice, but he ran a stinker behind Ramilies LTO, and it would be no surprise to see him miss the Festival. With Gerri Colombe almost certain for the "Broadway", and Churchstonewarrior likely being beaten by Mahler Mission tomorrow at Navan, we have Mister Coffey - another who just isn't good enough. To win the NH Chase requires a performance of 155+, and if after 3+ chase runs a horse is still well short of that level then he's not going to find 15lb behind the sofa! The rest of the entries just don't look good enough at this point. 

Advice: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f

I've read this race wrong from the start. 

I thought Hermes Allen would go for the 3-mile "Albert Bartlett", but he's now a firm 3/1 fav for this race. He ran away with the "Challow" LTO and it's tricky to put a value on his form as we have no real depth to novice hurdlers this side of the Irish Sea. Then I thought Impaire Et Passe was destined for the "Supreme" but he's 2nd-fav for this - his form lacks a stamina test though. As I wrote earlier, I think Gaelic Warrior is bound for the County Hurdle. The 7yo Good Land is only entered for this race, but I think he's more of a 3-miler and odds of 5/1 for this are plain daft; especially when you compare his form with Champ Kiely who is 8/1. Some trends are worth paying attention to, and that the majority of recent winners of this race were 6yo's suggests that those that are 7yo have missed the boat. The 6yo Inthepocket ran well LTO behind Il Etait Temps over 2-mile, but this trip would suit him better; he's interesting. Then you are in the realms of speculation: and for this race we probably need to wait another couple of weeks.

"Broadway" Chase over 3-miles

Last weekend, Gerri Colombe was a good winner at Sandown over 2m4f, with Balco Coastal in 2nd.  He looked like 3-miles would be right for him and I can see him being a Gold Cup contender next season.  However, connections have a long-term plan for this horse, and it would not surprise me if they side step this race - and Cheltenham - altogether, especially if the weather is dry for the next 6 weeks and we have "good" ground come 15th March. Regards The Real Whacker, I don't think he's good enough to win this race, and the form of his LTO win has been let-down by the runner-up. So, overall I'm happy with my current wager on Thyme Hill, who may be a bit old at 9yo, but he is a rock solid contender: not one of the best, but he may not need to be.  If I knew which entry Mullins was going to run in this race, I'd suggest a wager, but we will have to wait for him to make up his mind. 

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Arkle: BOOTHILL - £5 eachway @ 40/1 (NRNB - Skybet & Paddy Power)

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Already Advised:

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 

and Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Total Staked to Date: £100