Yesterday, there were six trainers “in-form” (that is, having achieved a 40%+ strike-rate win & place, from all runners in the past 14-days) with just a solitary runner; from the six there were 2 winners:-
TUPELO - sent out by Paul D’Arcy to win the 6:15 at Yarmouth at 9/4, and
GREEN POPPY - sent out by Brian Smart to win the 5:30 at Redcar at 9/2.
Neither of these horses had any real chance based on the form-book, yet both won “comfortably”. GREEN POPPY making-all and winning unchallenged, and TUPELO winning cleverly under a good ride by Liam Jones after being the subject of a considerable gamble from 7/1 in the morning (was 10/1 in the RP BF) to start at 9/4. That was the 5th winning 2yo from 8 sent to Yarmouth by Paul D’Arcy in recent seasons – take note.
Of the others, both TOP TIGRESS from Willie Haggas and KAYAAN from Sir Michael Stoute were the subject of good market support but neither justified it. LUCKY ART from Mrs Carr, and my selection from the six, BEACON HILL from John Gosden's yard; both finished down the field – although BEACON HILL was the subject of a market move from 6/1 in the morning to 9/4. With 2 winners from the six qualifiers producing a 2.75pt profit to a 1pt level stake and lots more available at morning prices (could have been 6pts+) it may be worth wagering on every qualifier irrespective of chance on the formbook.
There is a huge number of qualifiers today. There are 24 trainers with a 40%+ strikerate, and 12 send out a single runner from their stable.
To Nottingham this afternoon:-
M Jarvis (68.2% strikerate) sends FORJATT for the 3:45 – currently 8/11 fav
Al Zarooni (50.0%) sends CITY STYLE for the 4:50 – currently 6/1
R Beckett (52.6%) sends FOREST CROWN for the 5:25 (5/1) and Paul D’Arcy sends his LADY PATTERN (14/1) for the same race.
To Ripon this evening:-
W Haggas (42.9%) sends SILVER SHINE for the 6:40 – currently 7/1
Sir M Stoute (50.0%) sends TIMELESS STRIDE for the 7:40 – currently 5/2 fav
Mrs Carr (46.7%) sends EXCUSEZ MOI for the 8:10 – currently 14/1
J Hetherton (62.5%) sends KING IN WAITING for the 9:10 – currently 11/4 fav
To Kempton this evening :-
Luca Cumani (63.2%) sends LUC JORDAN for the 6:50 – currently 4/1
John Gosden (44.8%) sends ZANAZZI for the 7:50 – currently 9/4
A Balding (48.4%) sends WHITE DEVIL for the 8:50 (10/1) and Alan Bailey (50.0%) sends his TEWIN WOOD (9/1) for the same race.
I wont even try to sort that lot out but the one’s I am most interested in are:-
Stoute’s TIMELESS STRIDE making the long trip up to Ripon from Newmarket (this one has 3 relatives rated 15lb+);
Beckett’s FOREST CROWN at Nottingham as several others from the same dam have OR’s above 100 and this could mature into a decent mare;
Balding’s WHITE DEVIL at Kempton mainly as Balding has a great record here and this horse handles the AW and yet still looks unexposed on the surface.