Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


THIS IS A BOOKIES ADVERT FREE ZONE
There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives 30% of your lost wagers.

advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 1 June 2010

St Nicholas Abbey out of Derby

Strange day was Saturday. Lots of racing yet none of it seemed exciting. The trainer in-form selections didn't produce a winner, although Al Zarooni's ECLIPTIC ran a cracker to be 2nd at 13/2. For me, TOMBI was disappointing as it looked (on paper) to hold half a chance. The winner of that race - LOOK BUSY - was tipped-up by another blog that I follow (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/) and that blog also gave the Haydock winner HIGH STANDING to make it 2 from 2 on the day. I'm not a great follower of sprinters and if you want a decent opinion of their relative merits then give that blog a look.

Another blog I follow (http://laytheplacebet.blogspot.com/) had its recent run of success come to an end with only 1 succesful lay from 6 selections over the bank holiday weekend. Let's hope he pulls it around this week as place-laying can be a solid cash-cow if you play the odds right.

I place-laid just a single runner on Saturday at Catterick (its not something I put up on the blog before-hand as I watch the market odds and they only really develop in the 20 mins before the off) BECKERMET in the class 3, 7f handicap with 9-runners and the fav at 7/2, and 5 runners at 8/1 or shorter in the RP betting forecast. Competitive field and I thought Beckermet would be 8/1+ as from 24 races over 7f or longer its never-ever won and only been placed 6 times - all its wins have been over 5-6f, so clearly it does not stay 7f. Add to that Catterick favours a front-runner and there were 2 in the field so a good clip was guaranteed and it was a no-brainer. I could not believe it when I saw Beckermet was 4/1 and I place-laid at an average of 2.05 - it came 7th and the race-report says it all "prominent early, mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong".


Back to todays racing, and there's an interesting jumps meeting at Ffos Las tonight. None of my "trainer in-form" selections come from there tho'. There are 24 flat trainers with a 40%+ strike-rate "win & place" in the past 14-days, and today 14 of them send out runners, and 6 send out just a single horse to the track:-
W Haggas in the Yarmouth 6:45 with KAYAAN
Sir M Stoute in the Yarmouth 6:45 with TOP TIGRESS
I'll give these 3yo maidens a miss in this.
P D'Arcy in the Yarmouth 6:15 with TUPELO
Another one that should be passed-over, this being a class 6 2yo "seller", however D'Arcy has a tremendous 30% strike-rate at Yarmouth and is 4 wins from 8, 2yo runners.
Mrs R A Carr in the Redcar 4:00 with LUCKY ART
Mrs Carr has her string in tip-top form (only unplaced runner at the weekend was Beckermet - see above) but this lover of Thirsk will want it softer than today's Goo0to-Firm.
B Smart in the Redcar 5:30 with GREEN POPPY
Another class 6, this time a 6f amateur riders race for which GREEN POPPY is the RP fav - why? A race best avoided.
Which leaves us with John Gosden's BEACON HILL in the 4:45 at Leicester. Gosden is 9 from 27 here and 2 from 8 with his 2yo's and that is good enough for me despite it being a hotly contested maiden.

So that's today selections:
BEACON HILL 1pt e/w in the Leicester 4:45 - currently 6/1 (don't take less than 5/1).
I expect a better run from TUPELO but it needs a proverbial "rocket" to win this - has Mr D'Arcy worked the oracle?

And finally, Aidan O'Brien has pulled one-time Derby fav St Nicholas Abbey from the race with a "suspected pulled-muscle" - I doubt it will see the track again, and should now go straight to the paddocks in Kentucky.

2 comments:

  1. Huge gamble on BEACON HILL from 6/1 into 9/4 - but it didn't come off. And wouldn't yah just know it! GREEN POPPY has just won at 9/2.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Paul D'Arcy is now 5 from 9 with 2yo's at Yarmouth as his only runner today TUPELO wins what looked like the donkey derby - major gamble from 7/1 in the morning to 9/4. I'm begining to think that I should be having money on all qualifiers at this rate - and taking early prices!

    ReplyDelete